WHO SHOULD NASHVILLE PREDATORS FANS ROOT FOR IN THE NHL TODAY?

April 6th, 2013

The Preds’ playoff chances are down to 5.5 percent before today’s game with Chicago.

As of this afternoon, sportsclubstats.com lists the Nashville Predators’ chances of making the playoffs at 5.5 percent. That’s a dip of nearly 10 percent from Thursday, when the Preds lost at home to the Columbus Blue Jackets. They can improve their chances by 4.3 percent if they can find a way to beat the Chicago Blackhawks today, but unless they win each of their remaining games they need about a hundred other things to go right.

The defending Stanley Cup champs can help the Preds today. (PHOTO: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)

The first of those would be for the Los Angeles Kings (21-13-3) to beat the Edmonton Oilers (16-14-7) when they face off at 3:00 p.m. CDT. The Oilers are currently in ninth place in the Western Conference, one point ahead of the Predators. A Kings win plus a Preds win would move Nashville ahead of Edmonton in the standings and add an extra 0.5 percent to their playoff chances. This game is on NHL Network today so you can follow along.

A Colorado win would be good for Nashville. (PHOTO: Chris Humphreys-USA TODAY Sports)

The next team you’ll want to pull for is the Colorado Avalanche (12-20-5), who have a chance to play spoiler against the Phoenix Coyotes (16-15-6) at 8:00 p.m. CDT tonight. The Avs haven’t had a hope of making the playoffs for close to a month now, but the Coyotes are in 11th place and clinging to post-season dreams right now. They’re tied with Nashville in points but have games in hand. If they lose, they’ll give Nashville’s playoff chances a 0.6-percent boost.

The downsized Flames can help Nashville’s chances just a bit with a win in Vancouver tonight. (PHOTO: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports)

Finally there are the Calgary Flames (13-19-4), who visit the Vancouver Canucks (20-11-6) at 9:00 p.m. CDT tonight. There’s one possible scenario which sees the Canucks, currently just two points ahead of the Minnesota Wild (21-14-2) for the Northwest Division lead, lose often enough over their last 11 games to be in danger of missing the playoffs. The 0.2-percent chance a Flames win would add to Nashville’s playoff odds reflects that scenario.

If all the right teams win and the Nashville Predators can somehow manage to knock off the Blackhawks, the Preds’ chances could improve to 11.1 percent. That’s a 1-in-9 chance – far from impossible, but definitely heading down the highway toward it and looking for the exit.

David Legwand and Pekka Rinne both played big roles in tonight’s win for the Nashville Predators. (PHOTO: Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports)

The Nashville Predators came into tonight’s game with the Colorado Avalanche in desperate need of a win. Fatigued from the previous night’s road game in Chicago, they didn’t look like they had enough in the tank to overcome the team with the worst record in the entire NHL. But once they had their backs to the wall, the Preds found the spark they needed to tie the game and eventually pull off a victory.

Through the first two periods both teams looked like they had played the night before. The hockey was sloppy enough that even mainstream media reporters were commenting on Twitter about how boring the game was. It was everything that Preds fans have had to groan about this season: passes not finding their mark, defensive gaps large enough to drive a Zamboni through, and Pekka Rinne having to keep the team in it when they weren’t doing anything to support him.

The Preds finished the first period up 11-9 in shots and the two teams tied 9-9 in the second, but the game was still tied at 0-0 when the third period began. It didn’t stay that way for long, though. Matt Duchene maneuvered his way up the ice through an obstacle course of robotic Nashville defenders and fired a wrist shot past Pekka Rinne at 1:01 to give Colorado a 1-0 lead.

It was the kind of moment that’s happened far too often this season, and in the past it has frequently been the point at which the Nashville Predators’ chances of winning the game shrank to basically zero. But to their credit, the boys came out from the very next faceoff with renewed energy. They clearly understood the scenario and responded the way every fan was hoping for, outshooting the Avalanche 18-10 in the third period.

The Preds’ energetic game in the Colorado end of the ice paid off when Victor Bartley drew a high-sticking penalty on Brad Malone at 8:01 of the third. The ensuing power play lasted just 22 seconds before Patric Hornqvist banged home a second rebound from a Shea Weber shot. The goal went to video review because it appeared that Taylor Beck might have kicked the puck in the net, but Hornqvist’s stick got to the puck just before it touched the line and the score was now 1-1.

Nashville didn’t let up on the pressure from there. They continued to press the Avs and the effort finally paid off at 18:46 after David Legwand won a faceoff in the Colorado zone. After an extended scrum on the dot, Legwand managed to drop the puck into the corner. Taylor Beck fished it out and passed back to Legwand, who skated behind the net and wrapped around to put a shot on Jean-Sebastien Giguere. Legwand got another whack at the puck and put it home off the rebound for a 2-1 Nashville lead.

Colorado pulled Giguere for the extra attacker with just over a minute remaining but couldn’t mount any serious pressure in the Nashville zone. Paul Gaustad put the game away with an empty-netter from Legwand and Kevin Klein at 19:45, giving the team a much-needed victory for two points in the standings.

Some observations:

• Pekka Rinne looked sharp in the second half of a back-to-back, stopping 25 of the 26 shots Colorado threw at him. The only one that did beat him saw the Preds’ defense part like the Red Sea and allow Matt Duchene a clean break in on Pekka. After an eight-game streak that saw him give up at least two goals every game, he has given up just four in his last three starts.
• Before the game I said I was looking for contributions from David Legwand, Martin Erat, Patric Hornqvist, Shea Weber, and Taylor Beck. With the exception of Erat, all of them played a big role in the win tonight.
• Shea Weber fired five shots on net tonight, including the one that created the rebound Hornqvist converted into a goal. He’s playing strong hockey at a time when the team desperately needs him to do just that.
• How about Taylor Beck? His two assists tonight give him six points in his first eight NHL games. I feel like partnering him with David Legwand is one of the better decisions Barry Trotz has made this season. Beck’s helping Leggy almost look young again. (And not bringing him to Nashville sooner might be one of the worst moves by David Poile this year.)
• Roman Josi didn’t pick up any points tonight, but he did put a team-high six shots on net. His 24:16 ice time was second only to Weber’s 26:49.
• The two points from tonight’s win move the Nashville Predators ahead of Dallas and Edmonton into 9th place in the Western Conference, though both teams have at least one game in hand. St. Louis has the same 38 points Nashville has, but they sit in 8th place because they’ve played three fewer games.