Nashville Predators Expansion Draft Will Cost Team A Core Player
The Nashville Predators Could Lose A Key Player in an Expansion Draft.
While the NHL won’t announce an official decision until the 2016 Entry Draft in June all signs indicate that there will be at least one new expansion franchise by the 2018 season. Recent meetings between NHL executives and GMs in March produced a framework for the inevitable expansion draft that will occur, if and when the league decides to add more teams to its numbers, that will have a significant impact on every team in the league.
Expansion draft potential. Each team has option of protecting 3d, 7F and I goalie or 8 skaters +1 goalie. Expansion determined before draft
— Darren Dreger (@DarrenDreger) March 16, 2016
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It’s seems like the NHL has learned from its mistakes with previous expansion efforts like the Atlanta Thrashers where a poor on-ice product, the team only made it to the playoffs once in 11 years as a franchise, in an untraditional hockey market resulted in the team relocating to Winnipeg.
The last thing the league wants is another unsuccessful venture into a new hockey market like Las Vegas, the clear front-runner for an expansion team, and with that in mind, the league has designed this edition of the expansion draft to create as competitive of a team as possible from its already existing teams.
We will take a look as to how this could and probably will affect the Nashville Predators:
Next: Our Milwaukee Prospects
Expansion Drafting: AHL Possibilities
Daly: Most a team can lose in an expansion draft for one team is one player; teams can lose two players if two new teams join fold.
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) March 16, 2016
Naturally GMs will be allowed to protect their best assets from being chosen in the expansion draft but many core players throughout the league will still be exposed to selection by the new franchises. Before we take a look at the Predators options bear in mind that while prospects aren’t eligible to be taken in the expansion draft, players that have played two years of pro hockey on their entry-level contract before the 2017 draft will be eligible for selection and that includes AHL players as well. For comparison’s sake let’s look at two of the Predators top prospects.
Daly: "It might be a good player, but it's an important point that the most a team could lose is one player if we expand by one team."
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) March 16, 2016
Kevin Fiala, Nashville’s 1st round choice in 2014, will be fair game for any expansion franchises that may want him unless he is protected by the Predators from selection simply because 2017 will be the third year of his entry-level contract and he’s played at the AHL level for at least 3 years by then.
Then you have Juuse Saros, Nashville’s 4th round pick in 2013 and top goaltending prospect, who even though he was from the draft class a year prior to Kevin Fiala, is safe from selection since he is currently playing in his first year in the AHL and will only have played two seasons at the pro level by the 2017 draft.
That being said Fiala might go unclaimed if only one franchise will be selecting in the initial expansion draft since teams are more likely to select one of Nashville’s blueliners to build their own defense around than an unproven if promising prospect who doesn’t have a proven track record at the NHL level.
Depending on who plays on the Predators as opposed to Milwaukee next season it could make choices on prospects very hard for the Predators.
Next: Let's Look at Option A
Which Players are Definitely Going to Be Protected:
So let’s get the players who Dave Poile would be crazy not to protect out of the way.
- Pekka Rinne – Both options guarantee you the right to protect one goaltender and that’s going to be Pekka no matter what.
- Roman Josi and Shea Weber – GM Dave Poile isn’t letting Josi or Weber get taken for free and there’s no reason to leave them unprotected in favor of Nashville’s lesser defensive players.
- Ryan Johansen, James Neal, Filip Forsberg, Craig Smith – Pretty simple here. The Predators get to keep their best forwards and still have further options to explore with who to protect.
Protected Players Option A:
7 forwards, 3 defensemen, & 1 goalie.
In all the Predators get to protect 11 players if this is the route they decide to take. Keep in mind that both Mike Fisher and Mike Ribeiro each have one year left on their current contracts and will most likely be free agents or possibly retired by the 2017 entry draft. Either way, those two centermen won’t be getting protected in any event by Dave Poile. That helps the forward situation out tremendously and leaves room for the team to protect some of its younger talents like Viktor Arvidsson or Calle Jarnkrok.
That also brings Kevin Fiala back into the discussion. Depending on the season he has in 2017 Fiala might warrant protection as the Predators 7th forward pick. James Neal and Ryan Johansen have tremendous chemistry and need a left winger to fill out their scoring line, a spot that was initially reserved for Jimmy Vesey, and Fiala could take advantage of the opportunity and assert himself into the Preds top 6.
Now here’s the part where the Predators would be faced with a hard decision. Since they can only protect one more defenseman they would need to choose between keeping Ryan Ellis or Mattias Ekholm. Both players are having excellent seasons with each of them clearing the 30 point mark and setting new career highs for themselves in the process. One full season still remains between now and the entry draft so a breakout season from either player can simplify the decision for Dave Poile.
Next: What About Keeping 8 Skaters?
Protected Players Option B:
8 skaters – 1 goalie
At first glance, this looks like a horrible deal compared to our first option since you can only protect 9 players instead of 11 and in most cases you would be right. However if the Predators go this route they can protect their best forwards while still protecting their top 4 defensemen at the same time.
- Forwards – Neal, Forsberg, Johansen, and Smith
- Defenders – Weber, Josi, Ellis, and Ekholm
- Goalie – Pekka Rinne
As you can see the Predators would still have an extremely formidable core of players available even with fewer players being protected. The downside is that the next best pick for an expansion franchise would be one of Nashville’s up and coming players like Kevin Fiala or Calle Jarnkrok.
Available for selection
- Forwards – Calle Jarnkrok, Viktor Arvidsson, Kevin Fiala, Miikka Salomaki, Austin Watson, Colin Wilson, Colton Sissons.
- Defensemen – Petter Granberg, Anthony Bitteto,
One quick look and it’s easy to see that the best choice for a new team is easily either Jarnkrok or Fiala by a long shot. While Fiala has much to prove still, Calle Jarnkrok has shown that he can play anywhere in the lineup, including the penalty kill and powerplay while still contributing offensively, and that very well could be enough reason for him to be drafted if the Predators opt to protect their defensive players over their up and coming generation of forwards.
Next: Who Will We Lose?
Predictions…
It’s far too early to say for sure who the Predators might have to sacrifice to a new team. With one full season left to play before the expansion draft, if there is even going to be one at all, a bad year or a breakout performance from any of the unprotected players could end up be the deciding factor for David Poile on who will get to remain in Nashville.
There may also be the opportunity to look at a trade to another team that has an opening and a player that would not need to be protected. There is lots of backroom thinking already going on about all of this.
Even if it is highly unlikely to happen, there’s still also the possibility that two teams could be awarded franchises which would only further complicate things in Nashville. We wish we could say with some certainty but until anything is made official by the NHL in June we can only speculate what might happen to the Predators roster.
Next: May the FORS be With You!
As the situation becomes less muddy, we will keep you updated. The only thing we know for certain is that will all of the success and great prospects the Preds have, they will be losing someone that will hurt to part with.