Nashville Predators and Their Missing Pieces
The Keys To The Nashville Predators Success Is Building A More Complete Roster
Success in any team sport requires balance up and down a roster. A team can’t have only scorers because of salary cap concerns. On the flip side, it can’t only have defensive specialists because you need to put the puck in the net to win too. Looking at the Nashville Predators roster, there are some glaring holes that need to be fixed in order for them to take the next leap come playoff time.
Point Analysis
How I came to these conclusions was pretty simple, and while limited in scope, I was able to determine some glaring weaknesses pretty easily. I ranked all the forwards against their peers according to points and points per game. I then took those stats and gave each player a positional value according to their ranking. I.E., James Neal is ranked 32-34 in points per position and 31-34 in points per game per position. I averaged these rankings and came to the conclusion that Neal was an upper tier second line right winger. While this isn’t perfect by any means, it did give me an idea of what was missing on the Predators roster.
The Good
The Predators ice four players that are in the top tier of their collective rankings. Filip Forsberg, James Neal, Kevin Fiala and Austin Watson are all top tier talents. Forsberg is a first line left wing talent while Neal is a second line right wing talent. Watson and Fiala are upper tier talent that is best suited to the fourth line. That is a good start.
The Not So Bad
Joining Forsberg on the first line is Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson. Their stats show them as first line talents but they are on the lower end of their collective group. The Predators ice first line talent but it is far from elite.
Mike Fisher and Colin Wilson complete the second line. Unfortunately the same problem exists as with Johansen and Arvidsson. While Fisher and Wilson’s numbers are second line worthy, they are in the bottom of production as well.
A further look at the stats suggests the fourth line be manned by Calle Jarnkrok and his mid-tier production.
Talent wise the top six is complete. Four of the six players are in the lower tiers production wise whereas two are in the upper tier. The fourth line has top end talent that it needs to succeed as well.
Nashville Predators
The Ugly
According to the stats, the Predators have two mid-tier third line talents, Craig Smith and Mike Ribeiro. Ribeiro has been relegated to the AHL and will never don a Predators jersey ever again. The Predators have a major hole on the third line. Smith has underperformed and no other talent that is worthy of third line minutes.
The Repulsive
Statistically speaking three current players on the roster don’t rank in the top 120 players at their position. Two of the three are seeing consistent minutes. Colton Sissons, Vernon Fiddler and Harry Zolnierczyk are not producing at the NHL level. Cody McLeod is not far behind and is a borderline NHL player himself at this point in his career.
End of the day analysis
The lines that Coach Laviolette ices on a regular basis are the following:
Forsberg-Johansen-Arvidsson
Neal-Jarnkrok-Wilson
Smith-Fisher-Fiala
Zolnerczyk-Fiddler-Watson
According to the stats and research presented the lines should look more like this:
Forsberg-Johansen-Arvidsson
Neal-Fisher-Wilson
Smith-??-??
Fiala-Jarnkrok-Watson
The Predators either need to find some more talent for the top six to bump Wilson and Fisher down to the third line or find some upper tier third line talent to supplement the lack of punch they lack in their top six.
The good thing is, adding one solid player may accomplish what the Predators need as their defensemen chip in offensively at a higher clip than most defense corps. With the trade deadline approaching, we’ll see what David Poile has in store.