Who should be the Predators’ top target this offseason?
Option #1
One of the most discussed and most intriguing options is Colorado Avalanche center Matt Duchene. The 26-year old Canadian center has spent all 8 years of his career with the Avalanche. Immediately, Matt Duchene became a playmaker. In his debut season in 2009-2010, at just 19-years old, Duchene tallied 24 goals and 31 assists. He followed up his 55 point rookie season with an even better 67 point season. In eight NHL seasons, Duchene has put up 418 points, with 50+ points in five of those seasons.
Duchene has proven year after year that he is an elite NHL center, and that he can thrive when given the right support. Last season, Duchene received almost no help from the Avalanche, as they posted a league worst 22-56 record last season. Likewise, Duchene’s numbers suffered, as he posted a career low with 18 goals and 23 assists. As a result of the Avalanche’s poor record, and the lowest goals allowed average by 61, Duchene posted a league worst -34.
Clearly, some of Duchene’s numbers are misleading. He is still a talented, young player, who when put with the right supporting cast, should thrive. With the potential retirement of Mike Fisher, the Predators might be in need of another experienced center, and Duchene perfectly fits that role. Fisher only put up 50+ points once in his seven year career in Nashville, while Duchene has done it five times in eight years with Colorado.
Duchene, who was the third overall draft pick in 2009, currently has two years left on his deal with Colorado. He is expected to make $6 million next season. If the Predators were willing to give up a defenseman, and take on Duchene’s contract, we might be looking at Fisher’s replacement.
Option #2
A second, less fan favorite option, is Pittsburgh Penguins’ center Nick Bonino. The 29 year old was in Pittsburgh the last two seasons, where, as we all remember, he helped defeat the Predators in the Stanley Cup Finals. Since his first full season, four years ago, Bonino has accumulated 64 goals and 90 assists. While Bonino’s numbers are lower than Duchene’s, Bonino is more of a bruiser and defensive-minded player. If you remember, Bonino missed the final four games of the Stanley Cup Final this year, after blocking a shot on the penalty kill. Bonino is a solid team player who won’t wow fans with flashy plays, but certainly has the potential. At the end of the day, he is a solid second or third line center.
One of the most attractive facets to Bonino’s free agency is his price. Bonino is expected to cost the Predators a reasonable $1.5 million. For a reliable second or third line center, who can replace Mike Fisher’s 25-40 point presence, at half the cost, Bonino seems like a great option. Although fans might not welcome the Stanley Cup champion at first, Bonino should quickly be able to fit into Nashville’s system, while not breaking the bank.
Option #3
Next option: 37 year old center, Joe Thornton. A lifelong NHL bruiser who has racked up almost 1400 career points. Standing tall at 6 foot 4 inches 220 pounds, with a beard that puts Civil War generals to shame, Thornton is currently 22nd on the NHL all time points list. He served as the captain of the San Jose Sharks for four years. Thornton is a brilliant offensive player, however, his play-style is pass first. Only twice in his 20 NHL seasons, has he scored more than 30 goals in a season. In fifteen of his twenty seasons, Thornton has recorded 40+ assists, nine of those seasons with 60+. Furthermore, he’s recorded two 90+ assist seasons. (One of those 90+ seasons was in the Swiss National League during the 2005 NHL Lockout) Bottom line, this guy knows how to set others up.
Off the ice, Thornton brings veteran leadership into the Predators locker room, that might be absent if Mike Fisher retires. On the ice, he brings a physical presence that is hard to match, while also generating an absurd amount of offense. Thornton’s leadership, physicality, and passing ability would be a huge asset to a young Predators team that is full of young, inexperienced talent. His leadership would surely help the development of players such as Kevin Fiala, Frederick Gaudreau, Pontus Aberg, and Calle Jarnkrok. His ability to stretch the ice and find open players would be an added boost to an roster with many skilled skaters and scorers.
Like all great players though, there are downsides that makes GM’s nervous. One downside to Thornton is his health. Thornton is coming off of a pretty nasty knee injury where he tore his MCL and ACL. At 37, and MCL and ACL tear would normally end his career. However, Thornton is determined to bounce back and continue playing. After 20 seasons in the NHL, his body could be a ticking time bomb right now.
The other downside is his price. Thornton is an old player by NHL terms, yet he continues to produce great offense. That being said, the Predators would have to pay Thornton between $6-7 million. This is another scary thing for a GM. Not many are willing to pay almost $7 million a year to a 37 year old coming off of an MCL and ACL tear. We’ll see what David Poile thinks though…
Option #4
The last great option for the Predators, is center Sam Gagner. Gagner has split time with the Edmonton Oilers, Phoenix Coyotes, Philadelphia Flyers, and most recently, the Columbus Blue Jackets over his ten year NHL career. In seven of his ten seasons, Gagner recorded 40+ points.
Gagner was the 6th overall pick in the 2007 Entry Draft, however he never quite panned out the way Edmonton would’ve liked. In seven seasons in Edmonton, Gagner finished with 295 points. A number that isn’t too bad, however Gagner was hurting the Oilers more than he helped. His plus/minus of -77 in his time there is a testament to his poor defense, that has since improved.
After only recording 16 points two seasons ago with the Flyers in just 53 games, Philadelphia cut Gagner. The Blue Jackets signed Gagner, and gave him a chance that he took full advantage of. He posted his best season with 18 goals, 32 assists, and a +50 rating. Gagner has improved his game greatly since the early stages of his career. This suggests that he is finally ready to be a legitimate NHL center
Gagner has proven that he can be a reliable second or third line center that can give a team 35-50 points a year. That kind of production would be a perfect replacement for Mike Fisher’s usual 40 point campaigns. His offense and defense have both improved greatly, and he would fit well in Mike Fisher’s empty second of third line spot, if that spot was to be vacant next season.
One of the most attractive things about Gagner is his price. Gagner earned a modest $650,000 last year, however that will change. His breakout year will give him the right to demand a raise. However, David Poile is a master negotiator, and would likely be able to offer a reasonable $1.5 million for Gagner. Gagner seems to have finally lived up to his pre-draft hype after ten years. Now we must sit back and see if Poile thinks the same thing.
Who is the best option?
With many available players in free agency and the trade market, the Nashville Predators have plenty of options this offseason. Replacing talent is always difficult, but it’s easier when you have players to choose from, money to spend, and an attractive franchise that is on the rise. Nashville and GM David Poile have all of those things. David Poile has proven time and again that he is a master of finding and signing talent, so Predator fans should have no worries this offseason. When the free agent market opens on Saturday July 1st, the NHL will go into a bit of a frenzy, but never fear, the Predators will be right there in the midst of the chaos.
Players such as Matt Duchene, Nick Bonino, Joe Thornton, and Sam Gagner all present solid cases for Poile. Duchene is a different situation because of he would require a trade. However, there have been reports that he has been in talks with Nashville since February. Bonino, Thornton, and Gagner bring various levels of experience, talent, and leadership to the table, as well as a price. With those in mind, Poile will have to decide who will be the best candidate to fill the holes in his Stanley Cup finalist lineup. It may be one of these four, it may be two, it may be someone I haven’t mentioned, or it could be no one. We will just have to kick back and relax, and let David Poile work his magic for the Nashville Predators once more.
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