Nashville Predators: Comparing the value of Ekholm and Ellis to the Predators

The Nashville Predators defense had a coming out party last postseason as their top 4 were firing on all cylinders.

P.K. Subban showed the world he could turn other teams first lines into virtual no-shows. Roman Josi never seemed to be hemmed in his own zone, proving Jeff Marek correct in saying “puck goes in, puck comes out.” Ryan Ellis was an offensive dynamo who was seemingly never caught out of position. And Mattias Ekholm was arguably the best grinding power forward on the ice, even though he was playing defense. The Nashville Predators top 4 was a forced to be reckoned with and will look to continue to grow on both sides of the puck.

Ellis and Ekholm had very different seasons. They both played extremely well, but on different sides of the puck. Leading me to question, who is more important to the Nashville Predators going forward?

Once again I’m going back to my trusty Fenwick scores to see if there’s some difference. Mattias Ekholm posted a 52.3 Fenwick score while Ryan Ellis only mustered a 49.1 score. Both were beneficiaries of great linemates as they were often paired with Subban and Josi. Another piece of context is that both averaged the exact same minutes per night, even though Ellis missed 10 games. Ekholm’s possession domination was easily visible as he’d constantly break up passes at his own blueline or in the neutral zone.

Fenwick doesn’t lie, and it’s clear that Ekholm was the stronger defenseman when it came to possession.

Points!!!

Points from defensemen can make or break game or even a 7 game series. Even though I tell myself that points shouldn’t be a big deal in evaluating defensemen, it of course is. Mattias Ekhom had a less than impressive season with 23 points in 82 games. Meanwhile Ryan Ellis continued his progression with a whopping 16 goals and 38 points in 71 games!

A little bit of context though, Ellis played with Roman Josi for most of the season and both had favorable zone starts to Ekholm. Head Coach Peter Laviolette consistently puts Ellis in a favorable offensive position, including more time on the power play. Ellis is clearly the superior offensive defenseman, no ifs ands or buts.

Hero Charts let us compare what each defenseman brings to the table, while comparing it to the average player.

I use ownthepuck.blogspot.com for all of my HERO Chart needs. Shout out to them, they’re awesome. HERO Charts compares ice time, goals, primary assists, shot generation, and shot suppression per hour 5v5 for reference. Both players receive the exact ice time in similar 5v5 situations. Ellis completely dominates when it comes to goals and primary assists. Ekholm puts up average goal and primary assists numbers, but Ellis actually doubles the average.

Ekholm and Ellis are completely average in shot generation, odd considering Ellis doubled Ekholms points.  I interpret it to mean that Ellis capitalizes more on his shots. Ekholm does have a huge redeeming quality though. His shot suppression stats are incredible, and it is completely visible to the eye test. You only have to watch Ekholm to see that he is consistently frustrating star forwards. Ekholm actually scores the highest possible score for a player when it comes to Hero charts. What makes it even more impressive is that there are less than 10 other players with that score.

So who is more important to the Nashville Predators?

Well it’s the age old conundrum, is offense or defense more important? Well to provide context, the Predators already have two 40-point scorers on defense. Roman Josi and P.K. Subban create enough offense for an entire defensive corp, so is Ellis that necessary? Ekholm’s shot suppression numbers are miles ahead of Subban, who put up next best numbers.  The Predators need Ekholm to be a stalwart on defense more than they need Ellis to put up numbers.

So what should the Predators do with Ellis?

Ryan Ellis and Roman Josi are due for a new contract within a year of each other and both are  massively underpaid. Ellis currently makes 2.5 million while Josi makes 4 million, and let me give y’all a glimpse into the future. Josi will most likely make around 7 million dollars while some team will throw 5 million at Ellis. That’s not economically viable in todays salary cap league, so someone has to go. Ellis’ game lacks a part that the Predators don’t already have. Alexandre Carrier and Dante Fabbro have shown offensive prowess in major leagues and could easily be replacements.

Ellis and Ekholm are wonderful players in their own right, but they specialize in different aspects. Ekholm provides a defensive aspect to the Predators that many teams in the NHL lack. This defensive speciality makes Ekholm a more important component to the Predators than Ellis.