Nashville Predators: If the Predators don’t win a Stanley Cup, don’t blame the roster
History is not on his side
Since becoming the general behind the bench of the Nashville Predators in 2014, Laviolette has led the franchise farther than ever before. That success culminated in a trip to the Stanley Cup Finals last season. It was the third time Laviolette made it to the Finals as a coach (2006-won, 2010). He has been a fantastic coach in the National Hockey League. However, he has one flaw: he can’t repeat his success.
Peter Laviolette has coached the New York Islanders, Carolina Hurricanes, Philadelphia Flyers, and the Nashville Predators in his 15 year NHL coaching career. There has been only one time during any of his stints where his team achieved a higher point total than the season before (excluding lockout-shortened seasons). That was the 07-08 Carolina team. That year, the ‘Canes posted 92 points after an 88 point season. Other than that instance, he has brought diminishing returns year-over-year. Just look at his time holding the reins for the Nashville Predators.
Nashville’s fool’s gold
In his first season, Laviolette was a breath of fresh air. The Predators only had one head coach for its entire history – Barry Trotz. Every milestone in franchise history was a result of Trotz’s control. All involved (the organization, the media, and the fans) were sad to see Trotz go, but knew it was time. Laviolette was the product of the new school of hockey. He was all about offense, speed, and puck control. Trotz was about defense and goaltending. For the first time in their history, the Predators were going to worry more about offense than defense. The fans, although hesitant at first, embraced the new philosophy. That is the direction of the NHL today, anyway. More goals means more fans in the seats. It is exciting. It is something to cheer for. It means losing a heart-breaking 1-0 game is less likely.
The new system worked! The Nashville Predators jumped out of the gates in the 2014-2015 season. They had the highest percentage of points than any team by the All-Star break. That success led to Laviolette and his coaching staff behind the bench of one of the All-Star teams. The Nashville Predators faltered during the second half of the season, however, and finished second in the Central Division with 104 points. That second-place finish awarded them a playoff berth.
Their first round foe was none other than their nemesis, the Chicago Blackhawks. The Blackhawks were one of the hottest teams going into the playoffs that year. The Predators lost the series 2-4 and exited the season early. As bad as it felt, there was hope. The Predators improved immensely from their previous season. The fans couldn’t wait until the next season.
Progress in 2015-16
The following year, the Predators regressed a little during the regular season, posting just 96 points. They had a weak start to the season. They finished the second half of the year on fire, though, ending the season with the second most wins after the all-star break. That hot streak was just enough to make the playoffs as the first Wild Card. That Wild Card slot meant the road to the Cup would run through California for the first two rounds. The Predators won their first series in a nail-biting seven game series against the Anaheim Ducks.
Their second round opponent would be the San Jose Sharks. For the first time in franchise history, the Predators were playing a game seven in the second round of the playoffs. Unfortunately, they also logged like 20,000+ miles over the course of the back-and-forth Nashville to California trips throughout the first two rounds. The Predators were fatigued. That was apparent by their ugly effort in their final loss of the season. Again, all was not lost. The Predators had something to be proud of. They had gone farther than any other Predator team before them. There was hope for the oncoming year.
The tale of 2016
Last season, the Predators were a preseason favorite to make it out of the Western Conference in the playoffs. For the first time, national media had actually shown them favor. But, you have to make it to the playoffs first. History would indeed prove true once more for Laviolette and his team. The Predators would go on to post their worst point total under Laviolette’s regime with 94 points. They just barely qualified for the playoffs as the 16th of 16 teams.
Fortunately for Predators fans, the hockey experts were onto something when they predicted the Predators to make it to the Finals. They looked like a totally different team than the inconsistent, ragtag group from the regular season. They were confident. They were fast. Most importantly, they were healthy. The Predators would go on to break every franchise playoff record en route to their first Stanley Cup Finals berth. We all know how the story ends. Yet again, the fans are left with even more hope than the season before. We cannot wait until October.
Cautionary Tale
From what I just painfully recounted, it would seem Laviolette and his Predators have progressed every season, not regressed. But, I remind you that Laviolette has historically had worse regular seasons year-over-year. Some might believe the regular season doesn’t matter, and encourage us to admire the success Laviolette has brought the franchise. I will concede he has improved each season as far as where the team finished in the playoffs.
Nonetheless, as I stated before: a team has to make the playoffs before they can find postseason success. The Nashville Predators were the final seed in the playoffs. For the second season in a row, they posted fewer points in the standings. Even though they have virtually the same roster as last season, that does not mean the other teams behind them haven’t improved.
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Like the old saying goes, history tends to repeat itself. Peter Laviolette has a long history of unrepeatable success. If the Predators post even fewer points this upcoming season, they will not make the playoffs. If they do not make the playoffs, don’t be surprised if GMDP will be looking to sign a coach next offseason to go along with whatever free agents he will covet.