Nashville Predators: Young Guys Itching to Get Their Shot

The Nashville Predators have a seriously good problem. They have a multitude of young players who can slot into the NHL line-up as early as this year.

The Nashville Predators have a history of building the team from within. Unfortunately, the expansion draft in 1998 didn’t quite have the same plethora of talent as the most recent Vegas one this past off-season. So, it was going to take years to build a contender. It has always been tough for the Predators to land big names in free agency. Nashville is a small market. Not to mention, the general consensus around the league has always been that Nashville wasn’t a hockey town. But, what is a team who wants to compete every year to do? The answer is build through the draft.

The Nashville Predators have always drafted well. They have absolutely thrived in the draft. Some of the great names that come to mind are Ryan Suter, Shea Weber, Pekka Rinne, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm (see a trend here),  and many more great players. The most important part of drafting those great players is to develop them. You very rarely see a Predators prospect involved in a trade. The organization just doesn’t work that way. They draft players with the intention of helping them make it to the NHL. Their current crop of prospects are quite possibly the best in franchise history. A few players stand above the rest though. These players have the best shot at making the roster out of camp.

Vladislav Kamenev

The most intriguing of all prospects is Vladislav Kamenev. The Nashville Predators have long been considered as one of the top defensive teams in the league. Former bench manager, Barry Trotz instilled that philosophy from day one of the franchise. Defencemen have been a heavy focus for the Nashville Predators in the draft as well. Just take a look at some of the names I listed earlier in this post. On top of those names, add Dan Hamhuis, Seth Jones, Cody Franson, and Kevin Klein. That’s a very solid pedigree for drafting defencemen. However, we are in a different kind of league now. It’s all about offense, speed, and penalties providing more offense.

In order to contend for the Stanley Cup, a team needs not only a solid defense, but at least three forward lines that can score. The Nashville Predators have done a great job improving their offense over the last few seasons under the new full-attack philosophy of Head Coach Peter Laviolette. David Poile has also made every possible move he could make to bring in offense without giving away the franchise’s future. The result: the Nashville Predators have one of the top 10 forward groups in the league to go along with arguably the best defensive unit.

Vladislav Kamenev is a true center. He has a pass-first mentality, dominates the faceoff circle, and plays a full 200 ft. game. After he grows into his body a little bit more (6’2” and weighs roughly 200 lbs.), he will be very similar to Ryan Johansen (6’3” 218 lbs.). Imagine having two Ryan Johansen’s! Now, of course, we are assuming Kamenev really excels in his development. But, that comparison is not that crazy to think of. Kamenev was the second leading scorer for the Milwaukee Admirals last season with 21 G and 51 P, trailing only Pontus Aberg. That is very good production out of a second-year player.

Kamenev has had a solid preseason for the Predators. He seems to be a player the coaches are trying to take a serious look at. Kamenev is fourth on the team in minutes played this preseason. He has lead the team in Faceoff wins and percentage among all centers. He is also second on the team in assists (2) and third in both shots (9) and takeaways (2).

The biggest stat, and probably most surprising, is he has taken only one penalty. He has been known for having somewhat of a temper at times. However, he has shown he has matured greatly by only taking one this whole preseason. To be fair, that one penalty was slashing Victor Hedman after getting ran over by him and then given an extra shove by Hedman as to say, “and stay down!” Other than that, nothing. Not even a single one of those weak slashing calls the refs have been making all pre-season.

That is great news. That means not only can he handle himself on the ice, but he has also been in the correct spots. Most of the slashing penalties called this preseason stem from defenders getting caught flat-footed, and as the skater starts to blow by, throw their stick out as a last defense. Kamenev has clearly been alert on the ice without the puck and has found a way to stay in front of his man.

The Nashville Predators have the best forward group they have ever had. Currently, Nick Bonino seems to not be ready to start the season. That would leave some space for Kamenev to get some chances early. If Kamenev can grab a full-time roster spot on the fourth line, the Predators would have four lines that could all produce offensively. That is dangerous in today’s game.

Samuel Girard

Did I mention something about the Predators ability to draft good defencemen? Well, they are really good at it. Samuel Girard is no exception. The Predators drafted Girard in the second round, 47th overall in the 2016 draft. So far, it appears the Predators got another steal with him. He was pretty highly regarded for his overall talent level going into the draft but had a major drawback-his size.

Standing at 5’10” and barely carving into the ice at 161 pounds, many teams were hesitant to pick him. They thought he may not be able to play with the much bigger, grown men of the NHL. However, the Predators had to look no further than their own locker room to see that size, although it can help, really doesn’t matter.

Ryan Ellis has blossomed into quite a player in the NHL. He stands eye-to-eye with Girard at 5’10” as well. Ellis has never let his size get in the way of his game. He plays a physical game, backed up with an immense offensive skill. In fact, Ellis led all Nashville Predators defencemen last season with 16 goals.

Girard, like Ellis, doesn’t let his size prevent him from contributing on both ends of the ice. After watching him closely this preseason, his skating ability amazed me. Predators fans have been absolutely spoiled watching the graceful defencemen on the roster, especially P.K. Subban and Roman Josi. However, Girard is even better than those guys in my opinion. He is very fast and his agility is off the charts. He can move laterally against any forward with the puck. There are very few times where a forward has been able to outmaneuver Girard.

Girard has been given more of a chance this preseason than the Predators probably had planned. They will be without Ryan Ellis for at least the first couple of months of the season while he recovers from his offseason surgery. Girard paces all Predators defencemen this preseason with almost nine more minutes of ice-time than the next defenseman. He has done very well. After all of that ice time, he still has only been on the ice for 2 goals and has posted the 4th highest Fenwick score at 60.23. The goal to beat with Fenwick is 50. If you are over

The goal to beat with Fenwick is 50. If you are over 50%, then the puck is going to the opposing net more often than your own. Also, the more ice time you have, the closer you will hover around 50. It’s just the law of averages. So, it is even more impressive when you consider all of the ice time Girard has had.

With Ellis being out for almost half the year, Girard will have a real chance at cracking the NHL roster. His game is perfect for the style the Predators play. He is fast and can skate really well. Also, he score points in bunches averaging over a point per game in juniors the past two seasons. Now, take that with a grain of salt for it is only juniors. However, it shows he is an offensive force. His Fenwick numbers this preseason tell us he is at least competent on defense as well. Most importantly, outside of the top four, the Predators aren’t quite as solid. Take a look at the charts Hockey Viz below:

Those charts show the shots against per 60 minutes of 5 on 5 ice time with and without Yannick Weber last season. The red zones show more shots than the league average in a given zone, and the blue zones are less than the league average. Since we are talking shots against, the more and darker the blue, the better. Look at where shots are coming from when Weber is on the ice. That little gray box at the bottom center is the net. That is way too many extra shots coming in high danger areas.

Now, take a look at the chart when Weber was not on the ice. That major high danger area right in front of the net is about as blue as possible. What does that tell us? Well, one thing it tells us is that our top four defencemen are really, really good. The other thing it tells us is Weber is a below average defender. He also didn’t wow me on the offensive side of the puck either.

Matt Irwin has a similar chart because he played most of his minutes with Weber. In theory, they are both to blame for those shooting zones. Hence, they are both below-average defenders. Irwin plays a better defensive game than Weber. But, he also is not as swift as a skater as Weber, so offensively, he can only really manage in-zone offense. He can’t really create too much.

Alexei Emelin is a pretty solid defender. However, he was aided mostly by having Shea Weber as a partner for the majority of his ice time. That can make up for many break downs he may have had. My biggest issue with Emelin is he is so eager to make the big hit, he pulls himself way out of position and frequently gets burnt missing the guy. It is not worth giving up an odd-man rush just to attempt a crushing open ice hit. It is very exhilarating when he does manage to connect on one. Emelin also doesn’t give the Predators much offensively, either. He managed a very pedestrian 10 points out of his 76 games played last season. His career FF% is 48, below our targeted 50. Also, there is this:

Considering Ellis is missing a lot of time, there are now three spots on defense that are not going to hold a top-tier defenseman. The Predators have a few options they could go with. Convention tells us they have no problem playing Irwin and Weber, since they did so for the majority of last season. That leaves one spot open for either Emelin or Girard (assuming they were not impressed by Anthony Bitetto this preseason, who was?). Convention will also tell us they will most likely go with the experience of Emelin over Girard. However, they should seriously consider betting on their consistent success with young offensive defencemen.