How it plays out
If we look at these results, we can adjust them a little bit based off of the actual players we want to involve. In our situation, we have two forwards-Matt Duchene and Alex Galchenyuk-and two defensmen-Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis. Additionally, for our scenario, we are going to compare all stats from last season, since it was the last large set of data.
Last season, Galchenyuk scored 17 goals, just one season removed from scoring 30. Meanwhile, Duchene scored 18 for a bad Colorado team. If you consider both guys a top six forward, which you should, let’s compare them to our sixth best goal scorer from last season-Calle Jarnkrok. Jarnkrok scored 15 goals last season. In this case, Galchenyuk would have added an extra two goals to the team. Duchene would have added three, but probably much more with the upgrade in quality of teammates. Now, the true effect of adding Galchenyuk or Duchene would really be more. Either Galchenyuk or Duchene would command top minutes, meaning other players would lose minutes, hence less production. So, maybe Galchenyuk adds 5-7 more goals and Duchene probably adds closer to 8 or 10 than the next best option.