Nashville Predators: The salary cap situation going forward
It’s everyone’s favorite topic, the salary cap! The Nashville Predators have a much better situation than many other teams, but let’s look to the future.
I know that barely anyone likes to discuss the salary cap situation, but it’s so interesting. Creating a team that can win for years is solely reliant on how the general manager handles it. The Nashville Predators general manager David Poile has recently been hailed as a cap wizard. But why? Well, he’s a betting man. He pays players more than they’re worth at the moment, in the hopes that they’ll fulfill their potential. Once that players fulfills his potential, he’ll be a great player on a somewhat cheap and lengthy contract. It’s most notable with the defense, especially Ryan Ellis, Mattias Ekholm, and Roman Josi. The Nashville Predators have played the cap game well.
We’re about to look into the future, the next three years to be exact. And before we do, I want to cover a few things. Long term injured reserve (LTIR) is what a player is placed on when they’ll miss 24 days and 10 NHL games. By moving a player to LTIR, a team is rewarded with some cap relief. There are also players who are waiver exempt. waiver exempt means that you can travel between the NHL, AHL, or CHL without any risk of being claimed.
All rookies are waiver exempt. Although once a player is returned from the NHL to the CHL, he is unable to return to the NHL until his season is over. That mostly applies in the case of Samuel Girard. Finally, there are buyouts. Buyouts are when a team literally buys a player out of his contract and receives a smaller cap hit than what they would pay.
So for this article, we’re going to go over the Predators potential cap, this is a huge hypothetical and should be taken with a grain of salt. That being said, this is a fun nerdy little piece. So let’s start with the present.
The Present
As the Nashville Predators sit right now, they currently own a cap of 70.269 million out of 75 million. That’s about 4.7 million in cap space at this moment. Pretty good considering that they’re not using any relief given to them for Nick Bonino or Ryan Ellis.
The Predators currently have a full roster of 23 players with two on the IR. Which means that two will have to return to the AHL or the CHL. Most likely that’ll be Samuel Girard and Frederick Gaudreau. Girard will most likely head back to Quebec once Ellis returns, while Gaudreau will most likely see Milwaukee once Bonino comes back. This is not what I would do, but this is the most likely outcome.
Cap space, in my opinion, is an asset in itself. The Carolina Hurricanes have used their cap space to take advantage of teams with cap issues, most notably the Chicago Blackhawks over the summer. The Nashville Predators may not be taking advantage of any teams, but this cap space can be used to add players that other teams couldn’t. The idea of a Matt Duchene or Alex Galchenyuk wouldn’t even be a possibility without the five million in cap space.
I’m not saying that the Predators will make a move at the deadline, but leaving themselves the possibility was a smart move. Who knows, the Predators might want to go all in this year, and an extra piece at the deadline might be in the cards. David Poile currently has the Predators right where he wants them, even if injuries have hampered the team.
2018-2019 offseason
This offseason is going to be interesting, as no key players will be unrestricted free agents (UFA) or restricted free agents (RFA). The UFAs that are leaving are Cody McLeod, Scott Hartnell, Alexei Emelin, Yannick Weber, Matt Irwin, and Anthony Bitetto. The RFAs whose contracts are up is Juuse Saros and Miikka Salomaki. I have a sneaking suspicion that Hartnell will retire after this season so I don’t think he’ll be re-signed. But if he wants to play, then the Predators should throw another million dollars at him. Also, Juuse Saros and Salomaki will most likely receive cheap bridge deals, as they should. That said, I don’t care about the rest of the group.
I hope the Predators only re-sign Irwin. I think Irwin has played extremely well on a third pairing and could be a serviceable vet in the seventh defenseman role. Yannick Weber, Alexei Emelin, and Anthony Bitetto have consistently given reasons why they shouldn’t play on this roster. Especially when Alexandre Carrier is knocking on the door of the NHL. Carrier is a right-handed shot who would fit perfectly behind P.K Subban and Ryan Ellis. Well, at least he’d fit in much better than Weber.
The offense is a little different. Like I said, I think Hartnell will retire and so that re-signing won’t be possible. Cody McLeod will be an easy choice, the Predators are clearly less enthralled with McLeod as he’s not in the line-up every night. I’m sure he’ll play more games as the season goals on, but The Predators have looked much better without him. Plus centers like Emil Pettersson and Vladislav Kamenev are looking for their chance in the NHL.
Before the Nashville Predators sign anyone, they’ll have a roster of 17 players, with four skater spots and one goalie spot open. Not only that, but the Nashville Predators will have 62.9 million in cap space. Actually, 61.3 million after buyouts end this season. With the current cap, that’s over 14 million in cap space to spend. That’s not even considering that the cap could go up by as much as five million dollars, as reported by Elliotte Freidman. I don’t expect for the Predators to spend much in this offseason, as the next offseason contains a few important UFAs.
2019-2020 offseason
This is where things will start to get a bit crazy, and less predictable. The key free agents will be Kevin Fiala, Pontus Aberg, Colton Sissons, Ryan Ellis, Vladislav Kamenev, Emil Pettersson, Jack Dougherty, and Pekka Rinne. All but Ellis and Rinne are RFAs and will be a bit easier to sign. I expect Kamenev, and Fiala to sign shorter bridge deals with less money. Players often do this to help their teams’ clear cap and as a sign of good will, Subban did it in Montreal although that was a totally different story. As I mentioned earlier, David Poile is a gambler with young talent and I bet we see Pettersson or Kamenev receive a six year contract worth four or even five million dollars, much like the deal Arvidsson received this year. Although I wouldn’t be surprised if Fiala recieved this kind of deal too.
Unfortunately, not all of these players will stay. I think Pontus Aberg and Jack Dougherty are as good as gone at this point unless they agree to 2-way or AHL deals. Rinne is a curious case, he’s hinted at possibly retiring after his contract is up but I could see him returning in a back-up role on a “championship or bust” contract. I think Ellis will re-sign before he hits the open market for close to six or possibly seven million. If he hits free agency, he’s as good as gone as someone will through seven or eight million at him for the max term. Free agency is just that way, especially with right-handed offensive defensemen. If the Predators allow him to reach free agency, it’ll be because of Dante Fabbro.
Before the Nashville Predators re-sign anyone, they’ll most likely spend around 70 million dollars. Although that would force them to spend over nine million in free agency during the previous offseason. Something they won’t do unless John Tavares decides to take a sweetheart deal in Nashville. The biggest items to spend on will be Fiala and Ellis, with a possibility of Kamenev and Pettersson. Losing Rinne’s seven million will be greatly appreciated, as well as the rest of Viktor Stalberg‘s buyout, 1.67 million dollars. It’s the next year where the real questions rear their ugly head.
2020-2021 offseason
This is the final year I’ll do. Everything after the current season has just been speculation with facts sprinkled around. This year is the biggest stretch with the most speculation though. I really believe that if Ellis isn’t gone by now, Ekholm will be traded. By now Girard, Carrier, and Fabbro will be full-time NHLers and trying to make their way up the lineup. That said, the players leaving will be Samuel Girard, Roman Josi, Frederick Gaudreau, Austin Watson, and Craig Smith.
This, of course, assumes that Girard plays more than nine games this season and burns a year of his entry-level contract. We can debate whether or not he should play more than nine games (he should), but this is a large assumption.
Roman Josi isn’t going anywhere. He’ll be thirty and probably chasing his last large contract. I’d expect the Predators to offer their captain a max term worth nine million, like Subban. I’d expect Gaudreau and Watson to not receive a contract. Gaudreau is an extremely average center who’s best used in depth situations, but the rise of Kamenev or Pettersson will displace him. Watson will probably be in a similar situation as someone younger, cheaper, and possibly better will emerge.
Oh and you can forget about Craig Smith. Holy smokes that’s 4.5 million the Predators desperately want back. I like Smith a lot but he’s overpaid and he’ll most likely be replaced by Eeli Tolvanen.
Next: Five Thoughts For Friday, Nov 3rd
I can’t predict the future. Except that there’ll be a lockout in 2020, but that’s a different story. Back to the point, the Canadian markets could crash and the NHL could devolve into a 60 million cap league. It probably won’t but it’s a possibility. Who knows if David Poile keeps up his diligent spending, he may go crazy this offseason and sign a bunch of albatrosses in an effort to win now. But if everything stays the course, the Nashville Predators are set for the future.