Nashville Predators: The Case for Calle Järnkrok over James Neal

The Nashville Predators opted to expose James Neal in the 2017 Expansion Draft. Fans have been especially critical of Calle Järnkrok, who was protected instead.

Full disclosure: I was in favor of exposing James Neal to the Vegas Golden Knights. I realize that puts me in the crosshairs of a lot of Nashville Predators fans. Bear with me though, I’m not trying to criticize or be condescending toward anyone. My goal is simple: to explain that Calle Järnkrok is at least as valuable to this roster as James Neal might have been.

To be honest, I don’t really like making this comparison; the two players differ in age, position, size, and just about everything else. But, it’s a comparison that fans seem interested in making, so I’ll indulge.

Mine is a tough position to be in, right off the bat. This season, Neal has produced twice as many points as Järnkrok. Neal is the major headline in Vegas this season; the 30-year old winger has been a scoring machine. Järnkrok, meanwhile, is being tossed around between lines, and has yet to put up big numbers on a score sheet. However, the comparison is far from as black-and-white as the point totals suggest.

Note: all statistics presented are correct as of Nov. 8, 2017. 

Sustainability

The first, and easiest, caveat to identify with Neal’s performance is the issue of sustainability. Currently, his even-strength shooting percentage tells the tale. Shooting percentage is simply the ratio of shots taken to goals scored. A team’s average percentage throughout a season is usually about 10%. Even the hottest forwards struggle to maintain anything over 15% through 82 games.

So far, James Neal boasts an even-strength shooting percentage of 17.95%. It’s easy to look at Vegas highlights and think, man, we really messed up letting this guy walk. Here’s a guarantee that I’m comfortable making, though: he will not have anywhere close to that percentage come April. In other words, his current trajectory is entirely unsustainable.

Calle Järnkrok has been a regular member of the Nashville Predators’ roster since 2014 (he only played twelve NHL games during the 2013-14 season). During that time, his even-strength shooting percentage has been comparable to Neal’s, although admittedly lower. Through 15 games, his 2017-18 even-strength shooting percentage is 14.29%. To be fair, that will decrease as well. Here’s a look at each player’s even-strength shooting percentages throughout their NHL career:

I really want you to focus on the 17-18 values. There is simply not a precedent in existence that suggests Neal can sustain such a high shooting percentage. At the end of this season, I fully anticipate their even-strength shooting percentages to be within 2% of one another.