Nashville Predators: The Case for Calle Järnkrok over James Neal
The Nashville Predators opted to expose James Neal in the 2017 Expansion Draft. Fans have been especially critical of Calle Järnkrok, who was protected instead.
Full disclosure: I was in favor of exposing James Neal to the Vegas Golden Knights. I realize that puts me in the crosshairs of a lot of Nashville Predators fans. Bear with me though, I’m not trying to criticize or be condescending toward anyone. My goal is simple: to explain that Calle Järnkrok is at least as valuable to this roster as James Neal might have been.
To be honest, I don’t really like making this comparison; the two players differ in age, position, size, and just about everything else. But, it’s a comparison that fans seem interested in making, so I’ll indulge.
Mine is a tough position to be in, right off the bat. This season, Neal has produced twice as many points as Järnkrok. Neal is the major headline in Vegas this season; the 30-year old winger has been a scoring machine. Järnkrok, meanwhile, is being tossed around between lines, and has yet to put up big numbers on a score sheet. However, the comparison is far from as black-and-white as the point totals suggest.
Note: all statistics presented are correct as of Nov. 8, 2017.
Sustainability
The first, and easiest, caveat to identify with Neal’s performance is the issue of sustainability. Currently, his even-strength shooting percentage tells the tale. Shooting percentage is simply the ratio of shots taken to goals scored. A team’s average percentage throughout a season is usually about 10%. Even the hottest forwards struggle to maintain anything over 15% through 82 games.
So far, James Neal boasts an even-strength shooting percentage of 17.95%. It’s easy to look at Vegas highlights and think, man, we really messed up letting this guy walk. Here’s a guarantee that I’m comfortable making, though: he will not have anywhere close to that percentage come April. In other words, his current trajectory is entirely unsustainable.
Calle Järnkrok has been a regular member of the Nashville Predators’ roster since 2014 (he only played twelve NHL games during the 2013-14 season). During that time, his even-strength shooting percentage has been comparable to Neal’s, although admittedly lower. Through 15 games, his 2017-18 even-strength shooting percentage is 14.29%. To be fair, that will decrease as well. Here’s a look at each player’s even-strength shooting percentages throughout their NHL career:
I really want you to focus on the 17-18 values. There is simply not a precedent in existence that suggests Neal can sustain such a high shooting percentage. At the end of this season, I fully anticipate their even-strength shooting percentages to be within 2% of one another.
Two-Way Contribution
A center’s responsibilities are arguably the most demanding of any player on the ice. Their primary task is to generate scoring chances for their team. Of almost equal importance however, is the ability to suppress chances coming the other direction. High-danger chances are especially important. These are defined as shots generated within the low slot, right in front of net. Sportsnet’s Andrew Berkshire explains it beautifully with this graphic:
Based on expected save percentage. Red is high danger, entire home plate area is scoring chance area. pic.twitter.com/x0ChQJ2i03
— Andrew Berkshire (@AndrewBerkshire) February 9, 2017
Centers are usually expected to set up these chances for their wingers, if not take the shots themselves. Wingers, like Neal, are simply asked to beat the goaltender.
The ratio of high-danger chances created to those allowed paints a decent picture of a player’s two-way abilities. Generally, these ratios even out to around 53% for forwards, over the course of a full season. Here’s a look at the even-strength high-danger chances percentage (HDCF%) throughout the careers of James Neal and Calle Järnkrok:
Most likely, the first thing you’ll notice is the massive dip both players are experiencing this season. Again, it’s all about sustainability. Don’t be surprised when both players’ percentages come up to around 53% after 82 games. In this case, Järnkrok’s projected average over the next few seasons is higher than Neal’s. Both, though, are within shouting distance of one another.
Point production
A player’s points per game is a useful statistic as well, and relatively simple. Obviously, the presence of a player on a power play unit or penalty kill can influence the value. It makes sense, then, to only focus on even-strength points produced each game. I do understand that some of a player’s inherent value is in his contribution to uneven situations. However, in terms of predicting a player’s overall impact to his team, I feel much more comfortable when only even-strength situations are considered. After all, the vast majority of a season will be spent at five on five.
James Neal certainly has the advantage here. Over his eight full NHL seasons, he has produced an average of 32.75 ± 9.5 points per season at even strength. Järnkrok, through three complete seasons, has averaged 22.0 ± 4.4 points at even strength. When standardized for number of games played, here’s how each player looks:
So far this year, Neal is producing a career-best points-per-game. Järnkrok, meanwhile, is basically in line with his performances over the past few years. This figure, especially, is not a great look for Calle Järnkrok. While Neal’s value will certainly decrease as the year continues, he clearly has the better average, and has never dropped below Järnkrok during any single season.
However, this graph does set up nicely for my final point.
Player value
As you likely know, the NHL requires its teams to operate under an equal salary cap, currently set at $75 million. Considering the unquestionable importance of depth in a NHL lineup, the most successful teams are often those who can get high production from relatively low-salaried players.
James Neal signed a $5m contract with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2012-13. He eventually brought that contract to the Nashville Predators. In simple terms, James Neal took up 6.67% of the total salary value allotted to the franchise. Calle Järnkrok, meanwhile, is signed to a $2m contract with the Nashville Predators until 2022.
In a capless world, I would obviously want to keep James Neal on my roster. Fortunately for parity’s sake, we do not live in a capless world. With that, the issue of player value becomes one of utmost importance. To compare between these two players, I took their total points (at all strengths), and divided by each player’s cap hit in the corresponding season. Here’s a look at the resulting comparison:
In this area, Järnkrok has an enormous advantage. It’s not surprising, considering his cap hit has been less than half of Neal’s throughout his career. While both players are currently underperforming in this area, expect both to approach their career averages around halfway through this season.
Team success
The Nashville Predators are currently within 0.5 points of their average points-per-game, per season, during the Peter Laviolette era. Considering the current underperformance of nearly every forward, it’s entirely expected that their average will quickly return to its normal trajectory.
Here’s my main point: if the Nashville Predators as a whole are producing as well without James Neal’s cap hit, there isn’t an issue in losing him to Vegas. The extra cap space has proved valuable already, with the acquisition of Nick Bonino and Kyle Turris. Yes, both players are untested in this lineup. However, after last year’s postseason, David Poile would be making a huge mistake had he not addressed the lack of center depth.
Correct decision
To reiterate: I’m not trying to criticize anyone for missing James Neal on this roster. His intangible value was considerable; he was a fan favorite during his tenure in Nashville. Additionally, with his white-hot start as a Vegas Golden Knight, it’s easy to look westward and wonder why we let him go in the first place.
Give it time, though. In terms of value for money, Calle Järnkrok is at least as good an option, if not better. Especially with the acquisition of Kyle Turris, Järnkrok’s responsibilities as a center may decrease substantially. That will open him up to more scoring chances as his defensive expectations decrease.
Next: Getting to know Kyle Turris
I am happy to have Calle Järnkrok as a member of this roster. It is the strongest roster in franchise history, and will continue to be for several more seasons.