Nashville Predators: A Crash Course in Modern Hockey Analytics

(Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)
(Photo by Dave Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images) /
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(Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
(Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /

Score-and-Venue Adjustment

If the goal of advanced analytics is to better describe performances, it’s vital to inject some context into each metric. Score-and-venue adjustment (SVA) provides just that. When paired with another metric, say Corsi, it allows you to analyze a player or team during specific game situations.

Calculating score adjustments is based on the assumption that a losing team will play more offensively. This can skew shot production both ways, since their defensive coverage will likely suffer as well. By quantifying that trend, analysts have created different systems for bringing everything back to average.

Venue adjustments rely on similar assumptions. On average, home teams have generated more shot attempts than away teams over the course of several years. This average difference allows for an adjustment to be made. Instead of pretending that the venue has no affect on shot attempts, a venue adjustment can be made to mitigate the effects of that inherent disparity.

Take a look at the game flow from Monday’s game against Boston:

Switch between “Corsi 5v5” and “Corsi 5v5 SVA” and you’ll see what I’m talking about. The unadjusted 5v5 Corsi is a bad look for the Nashville Predators; the shot production moved more and more in Boston’s favor as the game progressed. However, by omitting the inherent difference in a team’s strategy when tied and when losing, the trend is much more neutral.