Nashville Predators: Heroic Rinne Not Enough to Redeem Visitors

The Nashville Predators traveled to frigid St. Paul, MN last night to take on the Wild. Lackluster defense and numerous penalties proved costly.

If I had a dollar for every win the Nashville Predators have handed to their opponents this year, I’d have about seven dollars. That’s also 0.00054 Bitcoin, and Bitcoin = rich. Pekka Rinne is doing his best to keep my wallet empty, and I appreciate that from him.

Stop me if you’ve heard this before. In Minnesota, the Predators were paper thin in front of the crease. When they managed to escape their zone, someone would commit a completely unnecessary penalty. Bring out the penalty kill unit, rinse, repeat.

Digging holes

Another refrain from Nashville’s relatively few losses this year is either a bad start or a bad finish. Last night was a case of the former. By the time the Wild’s first goal was scored, Minnesota had a 10-0 advantage in shots on goal. You don’t have to be a mastermind to understand why that’s a problem.

Here’s how the shot generation played out through the evening:

It’s actually not a bad look for the Nashville Predators, who dominated shot attempts in the final two periods.

The real problem, of course, is that first period. At five-on-five, Nashville kept things pretty even though. When you include special teams, however, Minnesota doubled Nashville’s high-danger chances in the first period. Rinne’s heroics and a fluky goal from P.K. Subban kept the margin at just one score.

Defensive pairings

The frequent breakdowns of the Nashville Predators’ league-leading defensive corps puzzles even the most astute analysts. Nashville is not going to win every game; that’s not the issue. The problem lies in their manner of losing, which so often includes a defensive performance straight out of C-level squirt hockey.

Nashville’s defensive pairings retained their usual look last night. Roman Josi played alongside Mattias Ekholm. Subban skated with Alexei Emelin. Yannick Weber and Matt Irwin combined as the third pairing. At five-on-five, here’s some of their numbers from last night:

*offensive zone start percentage

Emelin and Subban led the way in terms of five-on-five ice time (TOI), but Josi and Ekholm spent over three minutes on the penalty kill. The second pairing also led the team in an unblocked shot generation (FF%) at a very impressive 65.38%. This makes sense, as over three-fourths of their even-strength zone starts were in the offensive zone.

Where’s the issue?

Each pairing produced reasonably solid numbers last night, but it often appeared that Minnesota had a wide open path to net. This begs the question, where exactly is the issue? If the defense is doing its job, the blame must fall on the forwards.

The backcheck is a huge part of a forward’s responsibility. Not only should they buzz around the offensive zone looking to create chances, they must work defensively as well. If the backchecking pressure lets up for even a moment, it creates lasting damage in terms of zone clearances, line changes, and puck possession.

Peter Laviolette has a tendency to “shelter” his top forward lines. That is, the first and second lines are often heavily weighted in the offensive zone. This leaves the final two trios to defend faceoffs originating in front of their own net far too often.

It’s a system that works as long as the top two lines are scoring plenty of goals. In games like last night, however, the flaws in this system are exposed. To be successful every night, the team will have to adjust its zone starts to even things out. This will require players like Filip Forsberg, Kevin Fiala, and Viktor Arvidsson to play defense every once in awhile. It’s not ideal, but it could win tough games.

Lessons learned?

Here’s what Ryan Johansen had to say about last night’s result:

He’s certainly correct; they have a unique opportunity to use the lessons from last night immediately. Minnesota has not been a dominant team this season. They’ve hovered around the fifth or sixth place mark in the Central division.

Next: Predators Heating Up Central Division

If the Nashville Predators can stick to their strengths and stay out of the penalty box, they will have their revenge and hopefully gain some momentum into the new year.