Nashville Predators: New year brings new questions for the Predators
The Nashville Predators are in the midst of a slump. What once was a promising season is mired by injury and bad luck. That brings questions.
No. The sky is not falling, though things are not looking as great for the Nashville Predators right now. It is not bad, but not as good as we were seeing back in November. But, let’s be honest – without going full-on “Chicken Little” – the Predators are slumping.
Let the record show this to be the truth.
In their last 10 games, the Predators are 5-4-1. They have scored three or fewer goals in 7 of their last 9. Home ice has not been kind as the Predators lost three of the last four Bridgestone appearances.
What happened? Vegas happened. The loss to the Golden Knights at home is when the Predators started to falter. Before Vegas, Nashville tallied three or more goals 15 times since November 1. That is 17 games. Ten of those games was 4 or more goals. Since the three-goal performance against Vegas at home, they have surpassed three goals twice.
Now, Vegas sits comfortably atop the Western Conference. Their eight-game winning streak will not be easy to break; however, their upcoming games in St. Louis and Chicago help. The hopeful news for the NHL regarding Vegas is this: while they have won 12 of their last 13, only four wins came away from home ice. They have 23 road games left this season.
So, what is going on with the Predators since Vegas visited? I have some questions. Let’s hope there are some answers.
Nothing even at 5v5
It has been a concern all season. The Nashville Predators are not great at 5v5 hockey. At current, the team ranks tied for 21st in even-strength goals with 80. Let’s see, 80 divided by 123 (total goals on the year) equals 65.04.
That’s right. The Predators goals at even-strength account for just 65% of their scoring. There are only two teams with worse percentages: Pittsburg with 61.1% and 63.7% for San Jose.
The silver lining is the Predators are successful on the power-play, right?
It helps the team allowed the third fewest goals at even-strength. Thank you, Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros.
The problem? The last four Stanley Cup-winning teams obtained 72% or higher of their total goals at even-strength.
Can the Nashville Predators fix this? It can improve, but I doubt the percentage will increase too much. Unless a flurry of scoring happens on 5v5 chances, reaching a 70% clip is improbable.
Oh, Captain?
Where in the world is Roman Josi? If you see him, can you show him the team’s schedule? Sure, this is a bit tongue-in-cheek, but I am concerned about his play.
Why? Because in the last 11 games, he has four total points. This includes a four-game pointless streak, the most he has seen this year. While that does not sound too bad, it is impactful. In games the Predators win, Josi has 15 points. Three of his four goals in wins come on the power play, however. In the team’s 11 losses? Josi has five points.
Let’s break down his production by the month. In November, the Predators played their best hockey, and Josi accumulated 12 points. In December he only tallied six points. While he took the same amount of shots in both months, he only scored on 2.4% of shots in December.
Don’t get me wrong, I trust the Josi will make an impact moving forward. With the return to Ryan Ellis, Josi will see more action in the offensive zone. And, honestly, because of his play in November, Josi is still on track to reach career averages.
Still. It would be nice if he showed up now.
New toy now forgotten
It happens every Christmas without fail. My kids get gifts from Santa and enjoy them for a while. But, they are soon tossed aside as my girls give their attention to something else. This year, it was making rocket ships out of large boxes. Having a daughter who wants to be an astronomer will do that to you.
Well, the same is being observed with the Nashville Predators. When the team added Kyle Turris, fans were as excited. And the team produced. With 12 points in his first 12 games, Turris was the savior of the season. He was the “G.I. Joe Aircraft Carrier” I still have yet to receive. (It’s only been 32 years, Santa!!! COME ON!!)
However, since playing Vegas on December 8, Turris’s shine has lost its luster. The new toy only has five points. Additionally, he is struggling with faceoff, winning less than 50% of all chances in 7 of his last 10 games. Five of those games were 30% or less.
Will Turris gain the popularity he first garnered after the trade by improving production? With Filip Forsberg out, Turris is needed.
Forsberg’s out. Now what?
Six weeks. For the next six weeks the Nashville Predators will be without their leading scorer. The team’s best threat and key team-lifter is out. Gone. And the streets of Smashville are in a roaring panic.
When coach Peter Laviolette moved Forsberg to the Predators’ third line, Calle Jarnkrok took off. It was a curious move at first, but the need for third line production was obvious. It paid off. Now, the third line is in need again. Forsberg is out due to an injury leaving a canyon in the scoring column to be filled.
Nick Bonino looked to be a leading candidate to take over during the Predators game in Vegas this week. Though he saw a high percentage of starts in the defensive zone, Bonino played around the Vegas net leading to several scoring chances. He will need to score to help fill the void.
What other players need to step up and score with Forsberg out? I am looking at you, Pontus Aberg and Colton Sissons. Well, and Turris. Not to mention Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis.
D. E-F. E-N-S-E. DEFENSE!
I am not sure how many times I have heard it, but it the most common phrase attached to the Predators. They have one of, if not the, best top-four defensive groups in the NHL. If you look through the stats, the Predators are the sixth best defense in the league, and that is without Ryan Ellis playing until now.
What is the purpose of defense? Shut the other team down from scoring. That being the case, the best defense the Predators have is Pekka Rinne.
Fact: The Nashville Predators are one of the worst shot-suppressing teams in the NHL. Teams average 32.79 shots per game against the Predators, and that is seventh worst the NHL offers. And, what once was the best penalty kill in the league is fallen to tenth.
On the season, the Predators’ shot differential is -90. If the team wants to win, they need to keep opponents from scoring. Rinne and Saros must be the last line of defense. At times, they are the only line of defense the Predators boast.
Can the defense stop more shots and keep opponents from scoring? Sure. Adding Ellis should help. But the entire team needs to step up the defense.
Next: P.K. Subban Named 2018 NHL All-Star Game Captain
Don’t get me wrong. While my oft pessimistic view of the Predators will make one wonder if I really love the team, I do. I only wish to be a realist and look at things they way they are.