Nashville Predators: Midseason Grades for the Young Guns

The Nashville Predators have assembled a talented roster from top-to-bottom. Some of the most impressive players so far are under 25 years old.

It’s not breaking news to say that the Nashville Predators have an immensely impressive lineup this year. We’re talking about P.K. Subban, Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi, Kyle Turris, and Mattias Ekholm together on the same team, just to name a few. What really sets this lineup apart, though, is the production from its young talent, or those eight players under 25 years old.

With half of the season in the books, we have a good enough sample size to grade their performances so far. Because I’m the type of person that’s no fun at parties, I’ll use a purely statistical approach here. Be sure to check out our crash course in modern analytics to get a little more background about some of these metrics.

Let’s get started!

Pontus Åberg: 24 years old

Swedish winger Pontus Aberg certainly hasn’t stolen any shows this year. He has, though, performed well in a difficult role. In addition to a brief conditioning assignment in Milwaukee, he’s been scratched for a handful of games. Frequently, he hops around the lines to fill gaps created by injuries or scratches.

From a statistical perspective, it’s not great from Aberg. In 26 games played, he’s recorded five points from two goals and three assists. Of course, a player in Aberg’s role isn’t really expected to be a points monster. Here’s a look at some of his possession numbers.

These numbers aren’t great, but aren’t too bad either. A good rule of thumb is that you don’t want to see sub-50% possession stats for a player with a 50-plus% offensive zone start share. However, each of his numbers are close enough to the 50% mark to cut him some slack.

With a salary of just $650,000, Aberg is on pace for roughly 15 points per million dollars in cap hit. Because of his small price tag and inconsistent assignments, he gets a passing grade.

Midseason grade: C+

Viktor Arvidsson: 24 years old

I’d estimate that for every three Nashville Predators fans you ask, at least one’s favorite player is Viktor Arvidsson. It’s not hard to see why. Last season, the zippy Swede broke out with a whopping 61 points, matched only by Ryan Johansen. Since then, he’s tallied 13 goals, 14 assists, and proposed to someone else’s girlfriend.

Here’s a look at his five-on-five possession numbers:

Don’t shoot the messenger, but those aren’t very good numbers. He’s straight down the middle for Fenwick at 49.40%. This means that opponents are generating slightly more unblocked shot attempts than the Predators when Arvidsson is on the ice.

The third column is where things get worrying. Opponents generate overwhelmingly more high-danger scoring chances than the Predators with Arvidsson skating. With Arvy enjoying the majority of his faceoffs in the offensive zone, it’s a glaring question mark. Obviously, there are four other skaters out with Arvidsson at any given time, but the low high-danger percentage raises concerns over his ability to backcheck effectively.

Viktor Arvidsson could certainly improve this season, so it’s not a full condemnation. However, this season is definitely making his $4.25m price tag look awfully expensive.

Midseason grade: B-

Filip Forsberg: 23 years old

It seems strange that Forsberg is in this group of players, but it’s definitely a positive. He may be just 23 years old, but Forsberg is easily Nashville’s most dangerous scoring threat every night. Currently, he’s leading the team with 34 points (15G, 19A), in spite of an injury-related absence for the first time in his NHL career.

Forsberg’s effectiveness is demonstrated in his varying placement in the lineup. He is an extremely rare breed of player: a possession-driving winger. Typically, it’s the center’s responsibility to maintain possession and set up wingers. A player like Prince Filip has a unique ability to create plays, as well as score. When the bottom six is having trouble producing, Forsberg can be slotted in to help generate scoring chances.

With that in mind, let’s take a look at his five-on-five possession numbers so far:

These numbers reflect exactly what you need from a top-six winger. He plays a huge number of minutes each night (remember, that time on ice doesn’t include special teams). Moreover, he gives the Nashville Predators a decent advantage in unblocked shot attempts.

His below-50% high-danger share is worrying, but more a trend seen in the team as a whole than Forsberg specifically. He is sheltered in the offensive zone, there’s no denying that. However, he’s producing more consistently than ever before, and earns a fitting grade from me.

Midseason grade: A

Colton Sissons: 24 years old

Fans who jumped aboard during the previous postseason might be disappointed by Sissons’ recent performance. Since his spotlight-stealing hat trick that gave the team its first Conference win, he’s been essentially invisible.

For those of you who’ve been following the team for a bit longer, you’ll be less surprised. You might find it hard to believe that he’s played in 41 games so far this year. In those appearances, Sissons has nabbed twelve points from three goals and nine assists.

For a bottom-six center, being on pace for 24 points isn’t altogether too bad. The concern for Sissons comes from his five-on-five possession numbers:

You’ll notice that his offensive zone starts are very low. It’s another example of how defensively the Nashville Predators like to use their bottom-six forwards. Unfortunately, Sissons doesn’t appear to be doing very well at suppressing scoring chances. I’d like to see his numbers in the middle two columns come up to 50% or more by the end of the season.

In addition to his relative invisibility on the ice, his mediocre possession numbers leave Colton Sissons on the naughty list for now.

Midseason grade: C

Kevin Fiala: 21 years old

If you’ve been to a Nashville Predators game this season, chances are you’ve heard at least one teenage girl yelling “Baby Kev” towards the ice at some point. It’s not far off; at just 21 years old, Fiala is the youngest player on Nashville’s regular lineup.

His performance has made him absolutely deserving of the ice time. In his 41 appearances, he’s produced 26 points from 10 goals and 16 assists – good enough for fourth-best on Nashville’s roster.

His biggest storyline this year has been his inclusion on the revamped second line, featuring Kyle Turris and Craig Smith. Acquiring Turris has paid off mostly through the production of the two wingers.

Let’s take a look at Fiala’s five-on-five possession numbers:

Far and away, these are the best numbers from anyone in this group of players. Certainly, he enjoys very little responsibility in the defensive zone, but that’s fine as long as he can produce. His Fenwick percentage is beaten only by his two linemates, and he has the single best high-danger chance percentage on Nashville’s roster. It’s an incredible feat for the youngest guy on the bench.

After a sluggish start to the season, likely compounded by memories of his gruesome injury in St. Louis, Kevin Fiala has exploded back onto the scene. Opponents would do well to keep an eye out for the Swiss kid in future games.

Midseason grade: A+

Frédérick Gaudreau: 24 years old

Freddy Hockey is still more of a Milwaukee Admiral than a Nashville Predator, but he has contributed in a sizable number of games this year. In his 18 appearances, he’s put up just three points.

Gaudreau has a soft spot in my heart, since he’s yet to be given a real chance at the NHL level. He’s called up and reassigned regularly; I wouldn’t be surprised if he knows every TSA agent’s name at General Mitchell International Airport by now. Not only are his appearances inconsistent, he frequently features on the fourth line. That’s not exactly an environment that breeds success in a young center.

Regardless, his sample size is enough to consider his possession numbers:

Oof. He’s producing the team’s second-lowest time on ice, seventh-lowest Fenwick percentage, and single worst high-danger percentage. He is forced to play extremely defensively, but opponents are simply trampling his line.

It may be unpopular, but I can’t give the guy a failing grade. He simply hasn’t had a chance to produce well. Bouncing between Wisconsin and Tennessee and being handcuffed to Cody McLeod will not foster production in a developing center. He gets by on the slimmest of margins from me.

Midseason grade: C-

Juuse Saros: 22 years old

This party isn’t just for skaters! The Nashville Predators boast one of the most promising young goaltenders in the NHL, and he has certainly earned recognition this season.

Saros’ performances this year have often been incredible. He started the year with a few rough nights, causing some grumblings around the fanbase. Rest assured, however, he is definitely still the person for the job. The Predators are 4-3-3 in Saros’ starts, but at least two of those wins were essentially solo efforts from the young Finn.

Obviously, a goaltender can’t be analyzed with the same metrics as skaters, so let’s keep it simple. From his 11 appearances, here’s his shots against per game (SA/GP), overall save percentage (SV%), and high-danger save percentage (HDSV%).

The average number of shots a goalie faces each game is 31.8, so Saros catching a very slight break in that category. His save percentage of 92.2% would be great for any starter, let alone a young backup.

Most impressively is the third column. For high-danger scoring chances, goalies tend to have a save percentage of around 78% in the NHL. Saros is saving nearly 10% more of those chances this season, which is simply mind blowing. Many teams struggle to win with their backup netminder in, but Saros gives his team a chance.

The young Finnish goaltender remains a key member of this team, and will be relied on as the Predators continue their run toward the playoffs.

Midseason grade: A-

Next: Johansen Continues To Find His Game Against Oilers