Nashville Predators: Is JoFA A Top Five Line In The NHL?
The JoFA line emerged as a game changer for the Nashville Predators last season. But where do they rank among the best in NHL this season?
A truly elite first line in the NHL is a powerful weapon. It can change the course of a game as well as the course of a playoff series. We all saw what happened to the Predators once they lost Ryan Johansen in the playoffs last year. They felt apart offensively as their best weapon was broken up to create more depth scoring. Regardless of last season, the Nashville Predators struck gold when they found JoFA, so let’s discuss their performance this year.
Ryan Johansen is a dynamic playmaking center who moves the needle. Although he’s recently been injured, Johansen wasn’t having a superb season on paper as he’s amassed 5 goals and 26 points in 40 games. When you take a game to look at his on-ice performance, you’ll realize his numbers aren’t telling the whole story. His impact is being felt on both ends of the ice as his play on defense has grown. Just like P.K. Subban‘s transition to a shutdown defenceman, Johansen has become a two-way center who has a 200 foot impact.
On the right side is Viktor Arvidsson. The break-out star of last season has kept his feet moving and hustle going as he never takes a shift off. Arvy has 13 goals and 27 points in 42 games and is possibly the best forechecker on the team, if not the Central division. He probably won’t score 60 points again, but his work ethic will continue to cause havoc and create chances for his opposite winger.
Filip Forsberg is, unfortunately, going to miss significant time, but make no mistake, he’s the all-star of this team. The superstar Swede was off to a scorching start as he owns 15 goals and 34 points in 37 games. While the argument can be made that his power play points inflate his presence on the team, his ability to drive possession cannot be underestimated. His ability on either end of the ice reminds me of Marian Hossa in his prime, which is a flattering comparison for anyone.
Who’s the best?
I don’t think it’s crazy to venture that the JoFA line is a top 10 line in their own right, possibly top five even! So, let’s put them up to the test. I have thought of five lines that I think are some of the best. Some superstars have been left off, most notably Sidney Crosby (because he hasn’t played solid minutes with his current partners). If you feel as if I left off an obvious pick, feel free to tell me, but I just chose five lines that I feel are the best in the NHL. So, let’s start with an unlikely one out in Sunrise, Florida.
For reference, all stats are at five on five and an explanation of each stat can be found here.
The Barkov Line
The Barkov line is my hipster pick as one of the best in the NHL, but if you want proof, just watch a Panthers game. Seriously, besides them and Vincent Trochek, there’s not much there offensively. Night in and night out, if the Barkov trio doesn’t score, the Panthers probably don’t. Just in case you probably didn’t know, and it’s ok not to know, as we are talking about Florida, but this line is made up of Aleksander Barkov, Jonathan Huberdeau, and Evgenii Dadonov. Just for reference, I will use Fenwick (unblocked shot attempts), the percentage of high danger chances (HDCF%), percentage of goals scored, and offensive zone starts as my preferred stats.
| Total Ice Time | Fenwick % | HDCF% | Goals % | Offensive Zone Start % | |
| Barkov Line | 3 25:07 | 58.58% |
57.14%
58.06%
47.37%
JoFA
2 43:28
57.88%
50%
70.00%
61.43%
The Barkov line wins pretty handily from this comparison. They have better unblocked shot attempts scores, better percentage of high danger chances and tougher zone starts. The funny part, in my opinion, is that the Barkov line actually has more goals than JoFA. But the Nashville Predators’ crown jewel has been better in their own zone.
The reasoning for the Barkov line’s goals against totals might be because of their use in the defensive zone. Despite their offensive prowess, Florida’s coaching staff trusts this line more than any other and it shows.
I seriously hope Florida doesn’t waste Barkov’s prime years. He’s a gem that would be celebrated as someone who “plays the game the right way”. In this contest, I have to give the nod to Florida over JoFA. So, without further ado, let’s look at the best line in Alberta.
The Gaudreau Line
I’ll probably catch flak for not having Connor McDavid here, but he suffers the same issues as Crosby. His linemates haven’t been consistent enough to really nail down a single line that he’s played on, but enough justification. Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, and Michael Ferland form one of the top trios in the NHL, although most of it is powered by the young American Gaudreau. Johnny Hockey is one of the few possession driving wingers in the entirety of the NHL, and his praises can’t be overstated. Not to dismiss Monahan, who’d be a very good player in his own right, but Gaudreau is the star there. I’m not sure the sum reflects the parts, but let’s see what the numbers say.
| Total Ice Time | Fenwick % | HDCF% | Goals % | Offensive Zone Start % | |
| Gaudreau Line | 4 29:22 | 51.74% |
54.86%
66.67%
57.23%
JoFA
2 43:28
57.88%
50%
70.00%
61.43%
JoFA comes out looking pretty good in this one. They win the possession battle, goal percentage and don’t fall too far behind in high danger chances and zone starts. It’s a little surprising that a line with one of the NHL’s leading goal scorers in Gaudreau isn’t putting up better numbers with those favorable zone starts.
The other thing that isn’t reflected in these stats is that the Gaudreau line doesn’t always face top competition. The Flames’ second line is one of the premier shutdown lines in the NHL that erases guys like McDavid and Ovechkin from the scoreboard altogether. With all of these factors and JoFA’s better numbers, I think the Nashville Predators’ first line wins it. Now let’s head back to Florida to check out the top line on the top team in the NHL.
The Stamkos Line
The Tampa Bay Lightning have been absolutely incredible through the first half of the season. Their top line consists of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, and Vladislav Namestnikov. Stamkos is a top 10 player in the NHL and Kucherov has been the best player to come out of the “triplets line” from a few years ago. Namestinkinov has been a decent power forward for a few years but has broken out this season. To be fair though, I’m sure I could have a breakout year while playing with these two. Let’s see if their dominance on the scoreboard translates to dominance on the spreadsheet.
| Total Ice Time | Fenwick % | HDCF% | Goals % | Offensive Zone Start % | |
| Stamkos Line | 4 50:27 | 52.79% |
52.76%
59.62%
65.56%
JoFA
2 43:28
57.88%
50%
70.00%
61.43%
The Nashville Predators conquer this one almost going away. The story of the Lightning is that they always find a way to keep winning. If it’s not Stamkos or Kucherov, it’s Brayden Point or Yanni Gourde or Tyler Johnson or Ondrej Palat. Jon Cooper trusts his bottom lines to cancel out top competition so much that he shelters the Stamkos line more than any other in the entire NHL. The biggest difference between these two lines is capitalization. Well, that and the fact that Stamkos and company not very good in their own zone.
JoFA has evolved into a two-way line where the Stamkos line is much more offensively focused. Both have their benefits, but both have their pitfalls. Without any analytics, I’d say that Stamkos is better. But staying consistent with the numbers, I have to give this to the JoFA line. Which is not something I thought I’d write this season. Now that we looked at the best team, let’s look at the youngest line on one of the youngest teams.
The Matthews Line
The Toronto Maple Leafs have been all over the place this season. Whether it’s playing Leo Komarov for over 20 minutes in a game or getting absolutely destroyed in possession each and every night, there is one constant. Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and Zach Hyman are consistently a scoring threat. Coach Mike Babcock is also shaping this line for the future as Matthews is growing in a not-so-linear way. This young line will continue to grow and get better and better. But let’s take a look at how they are now.
| Total Ice Time | Fenwick % | HDCF% | Goals % | Offensive Zone Start % | |
| Matthews Line | 3 37:54 | 50.79% |
55.97%
76.00%
51.24%
JoFA
2 43:28
57.88
50%
70.00%
61.43%
The Matthews line isn’t great at controlling possession, as they’re exactly average. The good news for Leafs nation is that they make good use of what possession they have. They dominate high danger chances and have more than three-quarters of the goals scored when they’re on the ice. What’s interesting is that Babcock isn’t really handing them sheltered zone starts, although they are often not seeing top competition. The second line of the Leafs, much like the second line in Calgary, are eating the tough minutes to give Matthews a break.
The fact is that both teams have given up the same amount of goals, but that’s not the whole story. The Matthews line has given up almost 25 more high danger chances but Frederick Andersen has bailed them out. Moreso than Pekka Rinne has bailed out JoFA. Despite these defensive issues, I still think the Matthews line is better at this point of the season. With the youngest line out of the way, let’s get to arguably the best line in the entire NHL.
The Bergeron Line
I think everyone knew coming into this article knew that JoFA wasn’t the best line in hockey, but we’ve finally arrived at the top dog. Saint Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand, and David Pastrnak make up a deadly trio that can play any style of game. They go up against top line competition each and every night and never back down from a challenge. The craziest stat that’s not in the chart, is that the line has only given up two goals against! Two! In 285 minutes of play! That’s literally bananas in today’s modern NHL where any line can score on any given night.
| Total Ice Time | Fenwick % | HDCF% | Goals % | Offensive Zone Start % | |
| Bergeron Line | 2 85:52 | 58.65% |
55.86%
89.47%
58.27%
JoFA
2 43:28
57.88
50%
70.00%
61.43%
So, things don’t look good compared to the Bergeron line, but that’s to be expected. No one who has played significant minutes will look good compared to this line.
The Nashville Predators should be thankful that the possession, high danger chances, and goals are at least somewhat close. If anything though, this should give credence to when I wrote about trading Josi for Pastrnak… But we won’t go there because I’m pretty sure all the arguments are outdated. Anyways, let’s go through the list to see who’s in the top five!
Top five, dead or alive… or just alive
Despite my undying love of Jadakiss, we still have to finish the list. The numbers don’t lie and they tell quite the story. Each line has been incredible so far and every team would love to have them. But the Nashville Predators should feel great about JoFA, even with their lack of point scoring.
Here’s my list:
6: The Gaudreau Line
5: The Stamkos Line
4: The JoFA Line
3: The Matthews Line
2: The Barkov Line
1: The Bergeron Line
If there are any factors that I missed, feel free to yell at me on twitter. This is just the opinion I created by looking at the numbers. What you should take away from this is that we should appreciate JoFA with all the love we have to offer. Lines like this don’t come around often.