Nashville Predators: Food for Thought While Nashville Awaits the Jets

After beating the Avalanche in Game 6, the Nashville Predators await the Jets for their next test. Until then, here’s some food for thought after round one.

It was a scrappy, hard-fought series, and one that most people didn’t see going to six games. No matter how they did it though, the Nashville Predators have moved on, after a dominant 5-0 win in Colorado in Game 6. Next up, they will take on the Winnipeg Jets, who finished off the Wild in 5 games. In the regular season, the Predators were 3-1-1 against the Jets, with some very tight, high scoring games. Nashville won three games, by scores of 5-3, 6-5, and 3-1. They dropped one game 6-4 in regulation, and another by a score of 5-4 in a shootout.

At first glance, it’s clear how Nashville will beat Winnipeg. They’re just going to have to outscore them and make every game a 4+ goal outburst. Anything less than 4 goals from the Predators, plays into the Jets hand.

Nashville averages 3.2 goals per game, nearly identical to Winnipeg’s 3.3 goals per game.

On the other hand, Nashville is giving up an average of 2.5 goals per game, barely better than Winnipeg’s 2.6 goals per game average. Clearly, Nashville and Winnipeg are very similar teams. Their goals for and against averages are both 0.1 off. Similarly, Nashville took 3 of 5 games in the regular season.

These teams are almost identical in many statistic areas, and in their styles of play, leading me to believe that this upcoming series will be a true battle, where the better team will have to scrape out four wins, with no handouts.

With that being said, here’s some food for thought, before this upcoming series, that could decide the winner of the Western Conference.

Playoff Predators

I know this sounds silly, and they did just win a playoff series, but I still don’t think we’ve seen the best of the Nashville Predators. The closest they’ve been so far was Game 6, however, I still don’t think that was Nashville’s A++ hockey.

The Predators were spotty at best against the Avalanche. With the exception of total domination in Game 6, Nashville never really played a complete game. We would see bits and pieces of the team that won the President’s Trophy, but never were graced with 60 full minutes of dominant Predator hockey.

Even when they were up 3-0 in game 4, they let Colorado crawl back into the game, turning a three-goal third-period lead, into a scrappy one goal finish.

Colorado was no pushover. However, the same effort will not cut it with the Jets. Winnipeg is more fundamentally sound and has more than just a few players who can threaten.

Winnipeg is not on a backup goalie…really the furthest thing from it. In fact, Winnipeg’s Connor Hellebuyck is a fellow Vezina Trophy nominee with Nashville’s Pekka Rinne. With the exception of one 29 shot performance, Nashville put almost 37 shots per game on Hellebuyck. If Nashville wants to win, they will have to pepper the Jets like that. The more often Nashville is shooting, the less Patrik Laine and Blake Wheeler are. And that is a very good thing…

The playoff Predators have yet to come out yet for a full game, and when they do, I think it’s going to be something scary. They are extremely deep on offense and defense, meaning they can threaten with any line, at any time.

Rinne was arguably the best goalie in the league this year. At his best, he is hard to beat.

If Nashville can figure out how to fire on all cylinders, for a complete game, they should beat the Jets and move onto the Conference Finals.

The Depth is Key

One of the best surprises of the playoffs so far for Nashville is the production of the bottom half. The Predators are currently being led in playoff points by Austin Watson and Colton Sissons, with 7 points each. Watson scored in each of the first three games of the Colorado series, and added his fourth in Game 6. He has also tagged on three assists, and a +7 rating.

Sissons scored in games 1, 3, and 4, adding 4 assists along the way, too. He had at least one point in every game but game 5, and finished the series with a +4 rating. Positive numbers like that from guys in the bottom six is huge, as it means they’re capitalizing on weaker defenders and making the job of the top 6, much easier.

Numbers like these from two of your bottom forwards is a great sign.

People like Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson are going to be constantly matched with the Jets’ top skaters, making the play of the bottom half, very key. Even though those two added 6 goals and 3 assists of their own against Colorado, production from them could slow as they face better teams.

With that, the play of guys like Sissons, Watson, Ryan Hartman, and Calle Jarnkrok against Winnipeg becomes crucial. Winnipeg is offensively balanced, and deep like the Predators, meaning that production from the bottom half, could make the difference.

Good thing for Nashville though, is that the lower half is already pulling their weight.

Defensive Leadership

The staple of the Predators all season long has been their deep, and very talented blue line. Guys like P.K. Subban and Roman Josi led Nashville all year long. Despite the fact that Mattias Ekholm was the only defenseman to record a goal against Colorado, they were still sharp, and very active in the Predators offense.

Subban, Josi, Ekholm, and Ryan Ellis combined for 13 assists on 22 Predator goals in the series. In the regular season, those four defenseman assisted on 49% of the team’s goals. This past series, they assisted on 59%, a number that you love to see. This means that on those 13 goals, Nashville set up an attack, on their way to a goal.

You always take goals any way you can get them; however, breakaways and unassisted goals are harder to maintain, as that is just the result of an individual effort.

Goals with assists from the blue line mean more, as it shows true offensive skill and chemistry. Offense like that is more maintainable.

Despite allowing 15 goals in 6 games, the Predators and their defense are still allowing the 2nd fewest goals per game this season. With the high-powered Winnipeg offense coming soon, Nashville will be looking to its blue line to keep games close, and add huge points to the offense.