Nashville Predators: Don’t expect a cannonball splash this offseason
With the NHL Entry Draft over and season schedule released, the checklist for the Nashville Predators comes into focus. What does the team need to do?
The offseason is progressing fast. While that may please most fans of the Nashville Predators, there is still plenty to accomplish. The previous season ended, leaving a bad aftertaste. It certainly did not finish the way we as fans wished. And, it only left more questions about next season than true answers.
That said, the Predators are in an interesting place. With the recent levels of success the team is enjoying, free agents are inclined to test the waters. With the state of Tennessee being one free of income tax, even lower salaries can mean more money in a player’s pocket. Certainly when compared with New York or California. Add to that the weather, culture, food, and national exposure the city receives, the Predators are certainly a draw for free agents.
However, with the 2018-19 salary cap being $79.5 million, the Nashville Predators only possess approximately $12 million in room. The team can make a splash, but not one off the cannonball variety. Major free agent target John Tavares listed five teams he would visit and consider. The Predators were not one on the list. At least, so far.
The team lost Alexei Elemin, Mike Fisher, and Scott Hartnell this offseason already. These moves come as no shock to fans. What holes remain and what does the team need to do? There are several items the team needs to check-off the list this offseason.
Sign Ellis or trade him
It is no secret. The Nashville Predators’ plans this offseason start with Ryan Ellis. He is one of the best defensemen in the NHL. Take a look at his statistics, and those of defensemen with more than 700 minutes on ice this year. Ellis ranks seventh in CorsiFor (55.63), second in goals for percentage (64.29), and finished in the top 50 in total points during 5v5 situations. And, he finished the season with a +25 rating, seventh best among defensemen.
Let’s not forget, Ellis only played in 44 games.
Next season is the final year of Ellis current contract, making only $2.5 million in salary. The contract ranks 115th among NHL defensemen according to CapFriendly. The case can be made that Ellis deserves a better contract.
Teammate Mattias Ekholm makes $3.75 million per season, while captain Roman Josi has a $4 million average annual value. The Predators are speaking with Ellis about an extension, but no figures have been released. If you compare Ellis to other players, a 6 year, $6 million contract is not out of the realm of reality.
Nothing else can happen until this contract is completed. If the Predators can agree with Ellis on July 1, they will have time to take care of other desires. However, if they cannot come to terms before the season, David Poile could consider trading the star defensemen. It is not ideal, but it will be more difficult to negotiate after the season should Ellis perform as we expect.
Keep a solid young trio
There are three players who are up for contract renewals as well. The positive part is they are all restricted free agents. Each one is valuable to the Nashville Predators. And, all three received qualifying offers.
The #Preds extend qualifying offers to RFAs Ryan Hartman, Miikka Salomaki and Juuse Saros.
— Nashville Predators (@PredsNHL) June 25, 2018
Juuse Saros is the starting goalie in waiting. There is no doubting that after the season he just completed. With a .932 save percentage and 10.28 goals saved above average, Saros played himself into a good contract. Could he make over $2 million? Maybe.
Ryan Hartman brought cheers and jeers from Predators fans during his time in Nashville. His hard-nosed play and constant energy proved important during tough games but also landed the team on penalty kills. Hartman did not score goals like he did with Chicago, and that must change. Still, he plays an important role with the team. It would not be outside rational thought for him to be offered $1.5 million a season.
The third member of this trio is Miikka Salomaki. The young forward is not known for his scoring but does bring effort and a physical presence to the forward lines. His 8 points were not a career high, but any offensive contribution from him was welcome. However, even being deployed in the defensive zone nearly 70% of the time, Salomaki earned a CorsiFor of 50.6. And, his expected goals-for percentage was on-par with Austin Watson, Colton Sissons, and Viktor Arvidsson. Another $1.5 million contract is not outlandish.
Is this trio worth $5 million? Maybe more? You can make the argument, but anything more would handicap the Predators.
Develop young talent
So, if they Nashville Predators have $12 million in cap space, but three RFA’s to sign. That does not leave room for much after the fact, though. Maybe $7 million overall. The Nashville Predators’ roster has 19 positions claimed, leaving 4 open. Well, three of those four are potentially filled by the RFA’s. Therefore, essentially, there is on place open on the everyday roster.
The question remains who could fill that roster position. There are certainly a few players the Predators could call upon. Of course, everyone will want to see how Eeli Tolvanen would do playing on a regular basis. The young forward took the world by storm during the KHL season and Olympics. There is no doubting his scoring ability, but can it translate to the NHL?
The area the Predators may look for help is on defense. Given the top four players are healthy when the season begins, there is no reason to think coach Peter Laviolette will separate them. But, the bottom pair could see a fresh look. Matt Irwin played 50 games last season, and showed grit and energy down the stretch. Can he do that for a full 82? Or at least 60? Yannick Weber and Anthony Bitetto are solid depth pieces, but maybe not everyday players.
Do not be shocked if Alexandre Carrier or Dante Fabbro gain consideration. Carrier had a solid season with the Milwaukee Admirals last season, earning 28 points and performed well in a few games in 2016-17. Fabbro’s sophomore season at Boston was a huge step forward, increasing his scoring by 11 points. However, Fabbro will serve at the team’s captain next year. After his season, he could sign with the Predators and add late-season depth.
#Preds defenseman Dante Fabbro on if he’s thought about becoming a free agent and not signing with NSH: “I don’t think it will come to that. I don’t want to be anywhere else”
— Michael Gallagher (@MGsports_) June 25, 2018
Next: Looking at the 2018-19 schedule
These three items remain the focus for David Poile and his staff. There is little reason to expect a large signing or a trade. The team in place now is solid enough to contend. The Predators just need to bring consistency and energy to every game.