Nashville Predators: Five players could surprise us this year

When it comes to expectations, the stats sheets don’t lie. But, there is always a surprise in store. Who are the Nashville Predators’ players to watch?

We know what to expect. We watch players every year, paying attention to the stats they accumulate. The back of the cards don’t lie, or so they say in baseball. But the same is true with the Nashville Predators. Coming into each season, we have an idea of what each player can – and likely will – produce during the year.

For example, Viktor Arvidsson now has two seasons of 61 points, averaging 30 goals and 31 assists each year. Or, take Roman Josi. You can almost write with a pen the Predators’ captain will score 13 goals and 40 assists.

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Yet, even with these consistent numbers, there is always a surprise player or two. Take last season. Did anyone truly see Pekka Rinne winning 42 games in 59 starts? Or holding opponents scoreless eight times? These were nearly career highs. Rinne won 43 games in 2011-12, but that took 73 starts to reach. He also averages just under 5 shutouts per season not counting last year.

Then, there is the case of Craig Smith. His performance last season mimicked that of 2013-14, where is gained 24 goals and 28 assists. In 2017-18, Smith reached 25 goals and 26 assists. This is considerably different from his stats in the previous three seasons. Maybe not a major surprise, but still better than most people expected from the speedy forward.

There are several players that could surprise us next year. Here are five players we are watching.

Getting our Fil

To me, there is no more exciting player to watch in the NHL than Filip Forsberg. Sure, there may be better or more consistent shooters, but none of the flare of Forsberg. He is the Javier Baez of the NHL.

When you look at his stat sheet, Forsberg is good for 60 points per season. In each of his four full seasons, he has gained at least 26 goals. He reached 30 twice. He finished the season ranked 14th in the NHL in P/60 of players with greater than 800 minutes on the ice.

It may be a surprise to see Forsberg on this list, but it shouldn’t. We know he is going to score is points. However, we have to remember one fact about last season: Forsberg played in a career-low 67 games. In each of the previous three years, he played in every game, reaching no less than 1420 minutes on the ice. Last year, Forsberg only played 1171 minutes.

In 2017-18, Forsberg was a .95 points per game player. If he played all 82 games, he could have reached 78 points on the season, placing 23rd in the league. Furthermore, of his 26 goals last season, 13 came during the power play. He scored less than 20 goals at even-strength for the first time in his career. Again, this is partly due to missing games to injury or suspension.

Forsberg is on the break of stardom in the NHL. Give him a full season and we could see some spectacular performances.

In the Hart of it all

One player I am excited to see in a Nashville Predators’ sweater for a full season is Ryan Hartman. He is gritty, willing to skate the full length of the ice to disrupt a play. He challenges pucks, gives up the body, and forces his way in front of the net. Hartman is the annoying little brother on the Predators roster.

Do we really know what to expect for Hartman? The young forward only appeared in 21 games for Nashville during the regular season, earning six total points. Yet, for the second straight season, Hartman earned 31 total points. At 23-years-old, Hartman is still learning and growing as a player. He scored 19 goals in 2016-17 while in Chicago, and there are reasons to think he can in Nashville.

If you look at Hartman’s stats during his time with the Blackhawks, he averaged a CorsiFor of 54% and was deployed in the offensive zone almost 60% of the time. In Nashville, those numbers dropped to 49.7% and 45.8%, respectively.

If used correctly, Hartman could achieve 40 points next season. Of course, staying out of the penalty box will help as well.

Ellis Island

For the second time in his career, Ryan Ellis finished a season with 32 points. His career high was reached in 2016-17 when he obtained 38 points. Last season, Ellis set career marks in assists (23) and points per game (.73). Only Forsberg and Arvidsson had higher points per game marks than Ellis.

Let’s not read over that last stat too quickly. Ellis played in only 44 games, earning 32 points. Average that out over 82 games and he earns 60 points. That is rather impressive.

However, Ellis has never played 82 games. The most game in a season for the veteran defenseman is 80. He has two seasons in the 70’s and one of 58. For his career, Ellis is a .47 points per game player. Yet, last season, in limited action, he excelled. Maybe it was because he was healthy or because he was motivated. Whatever caused it, we will take another year of it.

As the summer rolls on, we wait to hear of the Nashville Predators re-signing Ellis. If that does not happen, he will be in his free agency season. A strong showing will only increase the bidding price. And, it could mean a great season for the Predators.

Going back to Calle

The 2017-18 season for Calle Jarnkrok was interesting to say the least. Injury kept the forward from valuable playing time, but when he was on the ice he made it count. When all was said and done, Jarnkrok finished with career highs in goals (19) and points (35). He also achieved a shooting percentage of 15.2%, second best on the team.

For Jarnkrok, the issue is simple. If he can stay healthy, he can score. If he scores, he will play. Part of the concern last season was the overall play of the forward lines not nicknamed JoFA. The second line was deployed significantly more in the offensive zone to help make up for their lack of defensive ability. It meant the third and fourth lines saw more time deployed in the defensive zone. For Jarnkrok, it meant a 45/55 split. He saw a similar split if 2016-17, gaining 31 points in 82 games.

There is evidence to support Jarnkrok surprising us this more points next season. Each season he has improved. Last season he missed tons of time. He is trending upward. Can he reach 40 points?