Nashville Predators: Long-Term Issues Facing The Predators
Ryan Ellis signing a long-term extension is great news for the Nashville Predators. It doesn’t mean the Predators & their fans are free from worry.
The Nashville Predators delivered some good news this week. Associate Captain Ryan Ellis will remain in Nashville through the 2026-27 season. As a homegrown talent that’s developed into an outstanding talent, a great leader & a fan favorite, Ellis is a key part of the Predators’ future plans on & off the ice.
Ellis sticking around is great news no matter how you slice it. However, one has to take a look at the potential pitfalls facing the Predators in future years. Things look great right now, but they can turn rapidly.
The 2022 Off-Season
When you take a look at Nashville’s various contracts, 2022 stands out as a big year for re-signing key players. Filip Forsberg, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm & Calle Jarnkrok all become unrestricted free agents after the 2021-22 off-season. Subban & Ekholm will be in their mid-thirties & likely be exiting the prime of their careers while Forsberg & Jarnkrok will be entering their thirties & the prime of their careers.
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Forsberg isn’t at the level of guys like John Tavares that command more than $10,000,000 per year on the free agent market yet. He probably has the potential to get there. Jarnkrok will want at least double of the $2,000,000 he’s currently making. Subban is already one of the highest-paid players in hockey & one assumes he will remain at that level. If Ekholm maintains his stellar play alongside Subban he’ll be looking for a substantial raise. Add in an expected contract extension for Roman Josi two years prior, and one wonders where the money for all this plus other additions will come from.
David Poile tends to address these situations before they come to pass. I’d expect either Forsberg or Subban to get extended a year before their contract is up. The bigger question is who will get left out of the game of musical chairs. It’s tough to see all of Nashville’s top players staying together after 2021-22. The math doesn’t work, especially if Eeli Tolvanen & Juuse Saros warrant massive raises as restricted free agents during the 2021 off-season.
This could end up being a Chicago Blackhawks-type situation where a lot of money is going to older players & the generation of players after them ends up compromised. I’m sure Nashville fans will take it if it means the Predators win three Stanley Cups during the process.
Shea Weber’s Contract
Although most of us will agree that Nashville got the better end of the deal sending Shea Weber to the Montreal Canadiens, the specter of the former captain’s eventual retirement still hangs over the Nashville Predators. That’s thanks to the ludicrous contract the Philadelphia Flyers offered Weber that Nashville decided to match during the 2012 off-season. You don’t see front-loaded contracts like it anymore, as the NHL instituted a cap recapture policy as part of the CBA settled after the 2012-13 lockout.
If Weber retires before the 2026-27 season, Nashville will be on the hook for a certain amount of money per season for the duration of the contract. The numbers aren’t pretty.
Penalty per year – NSH MTL
2019-20 $3,510,000 $918,000
2020-21 $4,100,000 $762,000
2021-22 $4,910,000 $543,000
2022-23 $6,140,000 $215,000
2023-24 $8,190,000 None
2024-25 $12,290,000 None
2025-26 $24,570,000 None
Weber’s injury issues since arriving in Montreal make the odds of an early retirement look more likely than they did when he was leading Nashville’s defense. Hopefully, Weber fondly recalls his time with the Predators & doesn’t have any bad feelings towards anybody working for the organization. If he does, we could find the Predators without a ton of cap room in a few years.
Pekka Rinne’s Future
Sometimes when reading articles or tweets about future Nashville Predators moves, I’ll see people talking about how the Predators will have more money once Pekka Rinne’s contract is off the books. This statement assumes a couple of things that I have some trouble wrapping my head around.
For one thing, we’re talking about the Vezina Trophy winner from last season. I wouldn’t be in a rush to get that off of my books, even if it’s one of the highest salaries in the NHL. You can’t argue that Pekka Rinne hasn’t earned his keep. More often than not, he’s been the Predators’ best player during a given season. Unless his postseason performance is a sign of his overall play falling off immediately after one of his best seasons instead of a sign of fatigue, it’s tough to see that trend changing.
It also assumes that Predators management would want to see Rinne leave. I’m not so sure about that. The negative reaction letting him walk would get from the fanbase, plus the team missing his high level of play, makes that decision risky business. I’d be surprised if Rinne wasn’t still a Nashville Predator after this season. Of course, that could make some other decisions more difficult.
What Becomes of Dante Fabbro?
From all accounts, Fabbro has every intention of joining the Nashville Predators once his time at Boston University comes to an end. He grew up a fan of Shea Weber & the Predators and has spoken highly of the Nashville atmosphere. Nashville management has high hopes for their 2016 first round pick, and they would prefer if he was already in their organization.
I think I speak for a majority of Nashville Predators fans when I say the whole college thing worries me. We remember the years that Predators management wasted hoping that Jimmy Vesey would join the team’s top six forwards once he ended his college career. Vesey & his family strung Nashville along through development camps, never having any intention of joining the Predators when he turned pro.
The main reason why Fabbro might not sign? Opportunity. Nashville’s top four defense slots are locked up through the next two seasons, and probably the next four once Roman Josi re-signs. He’s not passing Ellis, Josi, Subban or Ekholm on the depth chart. Will he choose to learn from them, or go to a team where he can move up the ladder more quickly?
How Long Does Poile Want To Do This?
Then there’s the conductor leading the orchestra. David Poile has been with the Nashville Predators their entire existence. There’s no reason to believe that his job is, or ever will be, in any sort of jeopardy. With that in mind, one has to remember that Poile is sixty-eight years old. He’s spent over five decades in NHL front offices. He has more wins than any other NHL General Manager. He’s getting inducted into the U.S. Hockey Hall of Fame this year. These honors don’t come to men who aren’t in the final period of their career.
It’s tough to see Poile retiring too soon. Everybody that enters the sport of hockey wants their name engraved into the Stanley Cup. He knows his best chance at that will be during the next several years with this team. If that happens, will he see that as a crowning achievement and his time to step off the stage? Will his replacement provide the same deft touch Polie has had over the years, or will there be a rough transition?
The Nashville Predators’ future looks incredibly bright on the surface. Fans should expect greatness. However, fans need to keep in mind the factors that could lead to an unraveling.