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Nashville Predators are favorites to win Stanley Cup (right now)

By Corey Francis |
NASHVILLE, TN - APRIL 27: Kevin Fiala #22 of the Nashville Predators is congratulated by teammates Craig Smith #15, Roman Josi #59, and Colton Sissons #10 after scoring a goal against the Winnipeg Jets during the third period of a 4-1 Jets victory in Game One of the Western Conference Second Round during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bridgestone Arena on April 27, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN - APRIL 27: Kevin Fiala #22 of the Nashville Predators is congratulated by teammates Craig Smith #15, Roman Josi #59, and Colton Sissons #10 after scoring a goal against the Winnipeg Jets during the third period of a 4-1 Jets victory in Game One of the Western Conference Second Round during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bridgestone Arena on April 27, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
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NASHVILLE, TN – APRIL 27: Kevin Fiala #22 of the Nashville Predators is congratulated by teammates Craig Smith #15, Roman Josi #59, and Colton Sissons #10 after scoring a goal against the Winnipeg Jets during the third period of a 4-1 Jets victory in Game One of the Western Conference Second Round during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bridgestone Arena on April 27, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN – APRIL 27: Kevin Fiala #22 of the Nashville Predators is congratulated by teammates Craig Smith #15, Roman Josi #59, and Colton Sissons #10 after scoring a goal against the Winnipeg Jets during the third period of a 4-1 Jets victory in Game One of the Western Conference Second Round during the 2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs at Bridgestone Arena on April 27, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images) /

One month is complete. Teams are starting to see who they are and what they can do this season. Right now, the Nashville Predators are Stanley Cup favorites.

The opening month of the NHL season reached it’s conclusion last week. Most teams played 12 games to this point, with only the Florida Panthers having less. Lines are starting to settle in and teams are evaluating who they are. When it comes to the Nashville Predators, one thing is clear: they are the favorites to win the Stanley Cup.

Well, at least so far. Now, I know the Cup is not won in October. Nor in November for that matter. The Washington Capitals were a mere 5-6-1 in October last season. Yet, a 6-2-1 start in 2016 set the Penguins up for success later. Getting off to a good start never hurt any team. The start the Nashville Predators are making is certainly a strong one.

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As we sit here on November 5, 2018, the Predators are the top team in the NHL. With 22 points, they are ahead of the Tampa Bay Lightning by a single point. The surprising Calgary Flames are three points back, while Minnesota, Toronto, and Vancouver are tied with 18 points.

According to Odds Shark, the Predators hold the third best odds (+850) to win the Stanley Cup, trailing Toronto (+650) and Tampa (+700). Nashville odds are up from the +1100 to start the season.

It is not all sunshine and rainbows for the Predators, but they are making a clear statement to the rest of the league. Nashville is primed to win the Stanley Cup.

Need reasons why? How about these.

CALGARY, AB – OCTOBER 19: The Nashville Predators celebrate a 5-3 win over the Calgary Flames after an NHL game on October 19, 2018 at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Gerry Thomas/NHLI via Getty Images)
CALGARY, AB – OCTOBER 19: The Nashville Predators celebrate a 5-3 win over the Calgary Flames after an NHL game on October 19, 2018 at the Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, Alberta, Canada. (Photo by Gerry Thomas/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Strength of Schedule

If you are a fan of the NHL, you are likely aware of where teams stand right now. The Nashville Predators are 11-3-0 on the season, one of two teams with double-digit wins. Ten of the 11 wins came during regulation. They won their only overtime match. Furthermore, they are 6-0-0 on the road. That is a great start, but it means they are 5-3-0 at Bridgestone.

The Predators are 6-0-0 versus the Eastern Conference, beating Tampa and Boston and the Islanders along the way.

There is good news. Just ask Fox Sports Tennessee broadcaster Willy Daunic.

That’s right. The collective record of the Nashville Predators opponents is 81-51-15. Seven of their wins come against teams with at least 16 points. All three of the Predators’ losses come against the same group of teams. Not only have they played quality teams, but they are also beating them.

Just for comparison, the collective record of Tampa’s opponents is 72-61-19.

Now, as we saw last year, records do not mean much when it comes to the Playoffs. The Predators finished the season with the league’s best record, yet, struggled against a pesky Colorado team and a strong Jets squad. But, seeing how the Predators are performing against quality teams shows how powerful this team can be.

(Photo by John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images)
(Photo by John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images) /

D, E-F, E-N-S-E, DEFENSE!

The Nashville Predators have the best top-four defensemen in the league. The combination of P.K. Subban and Mattias Ekholm have been on the ice for 12 total Predators goals during 5v5 play this year. This is tied for second among all pairings in the NHL. Additionally, they have faced 211 shot attempts and 169 unblocked shot. Still, their 53.7% CorsiFor and 55% FenwickFor ratings are top ten among defensemen. Predators goalies are saving 93.9% of all shots while the second d-men pairing is in action.

But, there are two other players who deserve attention. Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis are just as good – if not better – than Subban and Ekholm. While they have been on ice for 11 Predators goals, opponents have only 4 goals against them. They have faced 217 shots, 160 unblocked attempts, which are among the 10 most in the league. Josi and Ellis fight off most of these, giving the team a .969 save percentage.

All four of the Predators top defensive pairings rate in the top 12 at their position, according to Corsica Hockey. But, defense is also a team aspect. Last year, they ranked Nashville as the second-best defense in the NHL. While there is no rating available, but watching the Predators shows this as a strength.

How many times have we witnessed Ryan Hartman or Viktor Arvidsson take advantage of a breakaway opportunity? The team defense turns turnovers into points in short order. Every player is involved. Players like Kevin Fiala and Nick Bonino may not be scoring points, but they are gaining the puck in key battles, leading to scoring chances.

The Predators have allowed the seventh-fewest high-danger chances all season. This resulted in 8 goals and a 66.67% HDGF rating. No one is better.

NASHVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 21: Juuse Saros #74 of the Nashville Predators replaces Pekka Rinne #35 in net against the Carolina Hurricanes during an NHL game at Bridgestone Arena on December 21, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images)
NASHVILLE, TN – DECEMBER 21: Juuse Saros #74 of the Nashville Predators replaces Pekka Rinne #35 in net against the Carolina Hurricanes during an NHL game at Bridgestone Arena on December 21, 2017 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images) /

Two Goalies

There is no denying the luxury the Nashville Predators enjoy in net. Simply put, Pekka Rinne and Juuse Saros are the best goalie tandem in the NHL. You can attempt to make an argument, but so you will see the light. Let’s start with GSAA.

Goals Saved Above Average (or GSAA) is a great metric for assessing goalie performance. It provides a number of goals saved without regard for the team which the goalie plays. Save percentage is good, but is a goalie with a .937 rating who has faced 250 shots really better than one with a .929 rating who as faced 350 shots?

There are 33 goalies who accumulated more than 300 minutes of time in net this season. Both Rinne and Saros are among those players. Rinne has a 6.78 GSAA during 5v5 play this season, third in our sample size. Saros has a 0.54 GSAA, which is 16th. Not outstanding, but still above the average NHL goaltender.

Save percentage is a common metric, but high-danger save percentage is stronger. This tells how well the goalie plays when players are close and reaction times are short. Both Rinne (.903) and Saros (.846) rank in the top 10 so far.

Need one more stat? Let’s stick close to home and talk expected save percentage versus actual save percentage. For starters, xSV% tries to depict how a goal is expected to perform. For Rinne and Saros, their xSV%s are .926 (8th) and .927 (5th), respectively. These are rather good numbers if they were true numbers. However, their real save percentages are better. Rinne boasts a .963 SV% during 5v5 play, while Saros holds a .930 SV%. Needless to say, both goalies are among the top 20 in the league.

Next. Rinne's contract will keep team together. dark

There are 31 teams, meaning 62 goalies at least. The Predators have two top-tier players they can call upon. No tandem is better.

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