Nashville Predators: First Line Rotation Hurting the Team?
Injuries have caused the Nashville Predators to rotate players and lines. It may be hurting the roster more.
The Nashville Predators are hurting. Three high caliber players are missing in action. The team is somewhat staying afloat, but the injuries to Viktor Arvidsson, Kyle Turris, and P.K. Subban are taking their toll. Perhaps the most affecting loss is that of top forward, Arvidsson. For starters, we can’t say “the JoFA line” for 6-8 weeks. It’s also not easy to replace a 30-goal scorer.
We’ve seen Coach Peter Laviolette experiment and rotate players in and out of Arvy’s position. Craig Smith, Kevin Fiala, and even Austin Watson have been inserted into the first line. I know Laviolette is trying to find an adequate replacement but has it gone too far? Is the constant revolving door harming the team more than helping?
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To start, here’s a quick look at some stats of how Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen have fared with and without Viktor Arvidsson:
- With Arvy (189 TOI) – 63.7 CF%, 65 SCF%, 69.2 HDCF%, 77 HDGF%
- Without Arvy (246 TOI) – 60.1 CF%, 60.8 SCF%, 57.4 HDCF%, 61.5 HDGF%
The difference is noticeable, especially when it comes to high-danger chances and goals. What this really means is Arvidsson is vital to the top line’s chemistry. It’s not quite the same without him. But the Nashville Predators have plenty of depth so there’s a plan B somewhere on the team.
Who’s it Gonna be Tonight?
After Arvidsson’s injury on November 10th against Dallas, Colton Sissons was the first name called up to the top line. Next was Kevin Fiala, then Craig Smith. It seemed like every other game someone new was taking a stab at the first line. On game day, I’d check right away what the morning skate looked like to see who was getting the next chance.
The search for an adequate replacement turned into a revolving rotation with nobody really seizing the golden opportunity. Because of this, both Forsberg and Johansen have seen a decline in production. Forsberg has 4G,3A since Arvidsson’s last game. Joey has 1G,3A.
You can’t quite replicate a thing like chemistry, but the rotation has been hurting the Nashville Predators. The team immediately lost the next three games, and their record in 10 games since Arvy’s injury is 4-6. Sure, you have to account for losing Turris and Subban, but the domino effect of losing #33 is evident. It’s much more of a pinnacle moment when looking at the season so far.
Who it Should Be
Both Kevin Fiala and Craig Smith were obvious choices in my opinion. Their speed and scoring touch can compare to Arvidsson. What’s striking with Smith is in 105 minutes of shared ice with Forsberg and Johansen, they collectively have a 91.7 GF%. Only one goal has been scored against them. In fact, most of their percentages are way above average.
If you insert Kevin Fiala into the equation (still trying to make JoFiFi a thing), the numbers are good, but just not as good. Especially since Fiala is still trying to find his way this year, if Craig Smith is outperforming him, there is no need to force the situation.
Surprising to me, Nick Bonino has performed really well when playing with Forsberg and Johansen. Granted, in 30 minutes of shared ice, 24 of them were on the power play. But all of their on-ice percentages are near 90% and above. Also, this is a small sample size, but at Even Strength they have 100% rates in SF, SCF, and GF.
Next. Preds November Awards. dark
If times are desperate, moving Bonino up to the top line could be worth exploring. However, he’s probably best playing with Joey and Forsberg on the Power Play. It’s no secret that’s where we need the most help. The obvious option is to stick with Craig Smith in lieu of Viktor Arvidsson. The stats are there and so is the talent. No more experiments and no more rotation.