Nashville Predators face major challenges with Seattle joining league

The NHL awarded Seattle the 32nd franchise in the league with play starting in 2021. It means major problems for the Nashville Predators.

Seattle, you are the chosen one. You are going to bring balance to the hockey world. The league will now have 32 teams, each division will be filled with 8 teams. Schedules will be equalized and teams will be on a more even footing. There will be balance. Yet, there is a dark side to all of this, and the Nashville Predators should be prepared for it all.

With Seattle joining the league, the Western Conference will experience some realignment. Seattle will logically be placed in the Pacific Division. In order to accommodate this addition, the Arizona Coyotes will move to the Central Division. This will give both divisions eight teams. Mozart would be pleased with such balance, especially given the use of the eight. However, this new balance brings concerns for the Central Division. First of all, travel.

While the Coyotes are certainly closer to teams in the Pacific Division than the Central by an average of 573 miles. As it stands now, the Predators face the Coyotes three times a season. With the re-alignment, there will be an additional game between the teams. Now, that does not sound like a big deal, but the Coyotes play the Predators tough each and every time. Last season, Nashville won two of the three games between the clubs, but each game finished with a score of 3-2, with two games going into extra time.

This year, Arizona has won two games against the Predators already, allowing only one goal.

Furthermore, this means the Coyotes will travel more during the season in order to have four games against the Central. That is not ideal for them.

There is a more urgent concern the Predators will face, and that is the Expansion Draft.

The Roster

The Nashville Predators have decisions to make. Very tough decisions. Last time around, they elected to protect eight skaters and a goalie. It only meant losing James Neal, a player who was not likely to stay around long-term. With four key defensemen, it made sense to protect eight total skaters. This time around, it will not be so clear.

Between now and 2021, the Predators will have several players become free agents. Currently, the only players on the 2021-22 roster are Ryan Johansen, Calle Jarnkrok, Kyle Turris, Filip Forsberg, Viktor Arvidsson, P.K. Subban, Mattias Ekholm, and Ryan Ellis. These eight players are worth protecting alone.

Neither Pekka Rinne or Juuse Saros will be under contract, but Saros will be an RFA after the 2020-21 season. This means Saros may automatically be exposed in the Expansion Draft.

The problem comes in when you add in players who are not under contract for the 2021-22 season. Here are the players who will be either UFA or RFA each season.

2019: Ryan Hartman, Kevin Fiala, Rocco Grimaldi, Zac Rinaldo (UFA), Colton Sissons. Anthony Bitetto (UFA).

2020: Craig Smith, Austin Watson, Mikka Salomaki, Frederick Gaudreau, Roman Josi, Dan Hamhuis, Yannick Weber, Matt Irwin (All UFAs).

2021: Nick Bonino (UFA), Eeli Tolvanen, Pekka Rinne (UFA), Juuse Saros.

As you can see, there are major decisions to make for the Predators before the Expansion Draft in 2021. Certainly, we would like to see most – if not all – these players stay with the Predators. The biggest name on this list is Roman Josi. Can they afford him or will he walk away from the team for more money? His signing will force the hand of the team in who they protect.

Add to this Smith, Fiala, Tolvanen, Hartman, and Bonino, you can see the issue the team will have in 2021.

Who to protect

The major question is who the Nashville Predators protect. General Manager David Poile is going to have hard decisions to make between now and then. Just like 2017, the Predators are poised to lose a key player. But, who will it be this time around?

Given the rules, Juuse Saros will likely be exposed. Rinne will be an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and likely to retire. Because Saros is an RFA, and the only goalie on the team, the Predators may be forced to expose him in the Expansion Draft. But, then again, he could be safe depending who else is on the roster.

When it comes to skaters, there is a significant reason to believe the Predators should keep 7 forwards and 3 defensemen. Let’s go with this for now.

The true issue comes with the defensemen. We know they will at least protect three players, with P.K. Subban and Ryan Ellis being two of those players. Roman Josi’s signing will play a major role in who else is protected. Now, there are three other defensemen on the team, or at least will be. Let’s say, for purposes of our theory, Dante Fabbro has made the team and played one season. He would automatically be protected. You could make a case for the Predators to then protect three defensemen.

Of the players left exposed, one must be under contract for 2021-22. So, either Mattias Ekholm or a third-pairing player will be exposed. Not ideal. But, given the fact Fabbro is on the roster and protected, it could be worse. At least, in theory.

So, if the Predators protect three defensemen, they can keep seven forwards. Of course, we can speculate they keep Johansen, Forsberg, and Arvidsson. Protecting Turris would also be wise. From there, it truly depends on who is on the roster. Tolvanen will be an RFA and could prove himself worthy of protection in the coming seasons. Smith has been a vital part of the team and should re-sign in 2020. After that, it is up for grabs. Could it be Hartman? Jarnkrok? Even Fiala? For me, if Bonino signs, you protect him.

Given the fact the forward roster is better now than it was in 2017 means the Nashville Predators should consider protecting seven of them. That means exposing a defenseman. Protecting eight skaters may mean risking Bonino, Tolvanen, Fiala, or another key player. The decision will be difficult, but protecting 7/3/1 may be the way to go this time around.