Nashville Predators face major challenges with Seattle joining league

The NHL awarded Seattle the 32nd franchise in the league with play starting in 2021. It means major problems for the Nashville Predators.

Seattle, you are the chosen one. You are going to bring balance to the hockey world. The league will now have 32 teams, each division will be filled with 8 teams. Schedules will be equalized and teams will be on a more even footing. There will be balance. Yet, there is a dark side to all of this, and the Nashville Predators should be prepared for it all.

With Seattle joining the league, the Western Conference will experience some realignment. Seattle will logically be placed in the Pacific Division. In order to accommodate this addition, the Arizona Coyotes will move to the Central Division. This will give both divisions eight teams. Mozart would be pleased with such balance, especially given the use of the eight. However, this new balance brings concerns for the Central Division. First of all, travel.

While the Coyotes are certainly closer to teams in the Pacific Division than the Central by an average of 573 miles. As it stands now, the Predators face the Coyotes three times a season. With the re-alignment, there will be an additional game between the teams. Now, that does not sound like a big deal, but the Coyotes play the Predators tough each and every time. Last season, Nashville won two of the three games between the clubs, but each game finished with a score of 3-2, with two games going into extra time.

This year, Arizona has won two games against the Predators already, allowing only one goal.

Furthermore, this means the Coyotes will travel more during the season in order to have four games against the Central. That is not ideal for them.

There is a more urgent concern the Predators will face, and that is the Expansion Draft.

Draft Rules

With Seattle gaining an expansion franchise, it will be allowed to draft players from 30 of the other teams to create their team. Why only 30? Because the Vegas Golden Knights will only be through their fourth season, the NHL is allowing them to be exempt from the draft. Vegas will not enjoy any of the financial benefits from the expansion fees, however.

The 2021 NHL Expansion Draft will be governed by the same rules as those used for the Knights in 2017. Seattle will be allowed to draft one player from each team, totaling  14 forwards, nine defensemen, and three goalies. Twenty of the players chosen must be under contract for the 2021-22 season. When all is said and done, the players Seattle selects must equal 60-100% of the salary cap.

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Current teams have options in whom they protect. The first option is to protect seven fowards, three defensemen, and one goalie. Or, they can choose to keep eight skaters (forwards/defensemen) and one goalie. There are some extra stipulations. First, any players with no-movement clauses who do not waive the option must be protected. This will count against the team’s limit they can protect. Secondly, all first- and second-year NHL players and all unsigned draft selections will be exempt from the Expansion Draft. This will not be counted against the team’s protected list.

Additionally, there are minimums each team must meet. One defensemen who is under contract and played in either 40 games the prior season or 70 games the last two season must be exposed. Also, two forwards under the same circumstances listed for defensemen are to be open in the Expansion Draft.

Finally, each team must expose one goalie who is under contract or will be an RFA prior to the 2021-22 season.

These rules are major issues for the Nashville Predators.

Who to protect

The major question is who the Nashville Predators protect. General Manager David Poile is going to have hard decisions to make between now and then. Just like 2017, the Predators are poised to lose a key player. But, who will it be this time around?

Given the rules, Juuse Saros will likely be exposed. Rinne will be an unrestricted free agent in 2021 and likely to retire. Because Saros is an RFA, and the only goalie on the team, the Predators may be forced to expose him in the Expansion Draft. But, then again, he could be safe depending who else is on the roster.

When it comes to skaters, there is a significant reason to believe the Predators should keep 7 forwards and 3 defensemen. Let’s go with this for now.

The true issue comes with the defensemen. We know they will at least protect three players, with P.K. Subban and Ryan Ellis being two of those players. Roman Josi’s signing will play a major role in who else is protected. Now, there are three other defensemen on the team, or at least will be. Let’s say, for purposes of our theory, Dante Fabbro has made the team and played one season. He would automatically be protected. You could make a case for the Predators to then protect three defensemen.

Of the players left exposed, one must be under contract for 2021-22. So, either Mattias Ekholm or a third-pairing player will be exposed. Not ideal. But, given the fact Fabbro is on the roster and protected, it could be worse. At least, in theory.

So, if the Predators protect three defensemen, they can keep seven forwards. Of course, we can speculate they keep Johansen, Forsberg, and Arvidsson. Protecting Turris would also be wise. From there, it truly depends on who is on the roster. Tolvanen will be an RFA and could prove himself worthy of protection in the coming seasons. Smith has been a vital part of the team and should re-sign in 2020. After that, it is up for grabs. Could it be Hartman? Jarnkrok? Even Fiala? For me, if Bonino signs, you protect him.

Given the fact the forward roster is better now than it was in 2017 means the Nashville Predators should consider protecting seven of them. That means exposing a defenseman. Protecting eight skaters may mean risking Bonino, Tolvanen, Fiala, or another key player. The decision will be difficult, but protecting 7/3/1 may be the way to go this time around.