NHL Betting Picks, Predictions, Analysis, and Probability for Thursday Slate
This week we are kicking off our weekly NHL betting picks. This includes win probability, matchup analysis and game predictions.
I’ll post my NHL betting picks on Thursday or Friday each week and post another wave of NHL betting picks on either Monday or Tuesday each week.
This season I have created my own betting model which keys into individual performance opposed to most models which use team performance. This model is far from perfect, but seems to be very accurate, given a very small sample size, thus far.
I have been posting all my completely free NHL betting picks via twitter for the past two weeks. I am currently 46-15, including 6-0 Wednesday and 6-1 Tuesday. Sounds crazy, but to prove this insane record, each pick I have made is posted on my NHL picks twitter page, Twitter.com/picks_ice.
Each NHL betting pick is organized by goalie matchup, standings and current record, category rankings, betting trends, previous games played, goal differential, analysis, percent chance to win (based off my model), and finally the pick
Let’s see if my luck continues. Click the arrow to see who to pick today, October 17th.
(Rankings and betting trends via actionnetwork.com)
Thursday, October 17.
Tampa Bay @ Boston
Prediction. -120. 70. +100. 23
Goalies:
3-1-0 W/L, 2.52 GAA, 0.921 SV%
BOS Jaroslav Halak
2-1-0 W/L, 1.69 GAA, 0.951 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #1:
Standings and Current Record:
The Tampa Bay Lightning come into this matchup with a 3-2-1 record giving them seven points, good enough for fourth in the Atlantic. They need a win to catch Boston who is sitting in second place.
The Boston Bruins are comfortable in second place in the Atlantic behind a shockingly powerful Buffalo Sabres team. The Bruins are 5-1 and would love come away with a home victory to maintain their place in the standings. Here’s how they match-up:
Rankings:
Tampa Bay ranks 8th in goals scored and 20th in goals allowed. On top of that, the Lightning have the 12-ranked power play, but only the 23rd-best penalty kill. Special teams are important to focus on here.
The Bruins are ranked 21st in goals scored, but 2nd in goals allowed. They are allowing an average of 1.67 goals per game through the first six games. On special teams, they have the fifth-best power, play and rank 14th in penalty killing.
Betting Trends:
The Lightning are just 3-7 straight up in their last ten, but they are 7-1 in their last eight vs Boston.
Boston is 5-1 straight up in their last six games, and 14-6 straight up in their last twenty games at home vs Tampa.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
Tampa has beaten Florida, Toronto, and Montreal. They lost to Florida, Carolina, and Ottawa. The Lightning are outscoring opponents 23-18.
Boston has beaten Dallas, Arizona, Vegas, New Jersey, and Anaheim. They lost to Colorado. They have outscored their opponents 16-10.
Analysis:
The Bruins have played excellent defense and are great at home. It is hard to bet against Tampa, but Boston has a hotter goalie going into this matchup.
% Chance to Win: Bruins 58%
Pick: Bruins -120
Thursday, October 17.
Minnesota @ Montreal
98. Prediction. -149. 152. +143
Goalies:
MIN Alex Stalock
1-0-0 W/L, 0.71 GAA, 0.973 SV%
MON Carey Price
2-2-1 W/L, 3.33 GAA, 0.896 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #2:
Standings and Current Record:
The Minnesota Wild come into this matchup with a 1-5 record and desperate for a win. They are last in the Central Division. This is a team that’s hard to be convinced to bet on.
Their opponent, Montreal comes in with a 2-2-2 record also hungry for a win. In the middle of the pack, Montreal could use a big win. Here’s how they matchup:
Rankings:
The Wild are 24th in goals for and 27th in goals against. Yikes. Their power-play is 20th and their penalty kill is 12th. They’re not particularly strong in any category at the moment.
Montreal’s offense is 3rd in goals for but sit at 28th in goals allowed. Their penalty kill is not much better at 28th, but their power-play does sit at 13th.
Betting Trends:
Minnesota is 1-7 straight up in their last eight games. However, they are 9-0 in their last nine vs Montreal.
Montreal is 2-4 straight up this season but 6-2 in their last eight at home.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
The Wild have a win over Ottawa and losses to Toronto, Pittsburg, Winnipeg, Colorado, and Nashville. They have been outscored 14-25.
The Canadiens have wins over St. Louis and Toronto but losses to Tampa, Detroit, Buffalo, and Carolina. They have been outscored 22-24.
Analysis:
I like the Canadiens offensive power vs a weak Minnesota team that is struggling offensively and defensively.
% Chance to Win: Canadiens 56%
Pick: Canadiens -149
Thursday October 17.
New York Rangers @ New Jersey.
95. Prediction. -125. 85. +105
Goalies:
1-0-0 W/L, 1.00 GAA, 0.969 SV%
NJD Cory Schneider
0-3-0 W/L, 4.07 GAA, 0.876 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #3:
Standings and Current Record:
The New York Rangers have only played three games but are 2-1. Well behind Carolina’s eight games and twelve points in the Metropolitan Division. A win is needed.
The New Jersey Devils just fired their coach after starting 0-4-2. Obviously, they are last in the whole league. They need a win, bad. Here’s how they matchup:
Rankings:
The Rangers rank 12th in goals scored and 14th in goals allowed. Their power play is solid standing top-five in the NHL, and their penalty kill is 13th.
The Devils rank almost nearly last in goals for and 29th in goals allowed. Ouch. They’re not scoring and they’re giving up a lot of goals, too. The power-play and penalty kill are terrible. Ranking 30th and 31st respectively.
Betting Trends:
The Rangers are 7-13 straight up in their last twenty. They are 5-11 in their last sixteen vs the Eastern conference.
The Devils are 0-6 straight up this season and 1-7 vs the Eastern conference in their last eight.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
The Rangers have beaten the Jets and Senators but lost to the Oilers. They are outscoring opponents 11-9.
The Devils have lost to Florida, Boston, Edmonton, Philadelphia, Buffalo, and Winnipeg. They are being outscored 13-29.
Analysis:
Its gotta be time for the Devils first win, right? Wrong. The Rangers look dangerous with the addition of Artemi Panarin. Take the road dogs.
% Chance to Win: Rangers 51%
Pick: Rangers +105
Thursday, October 17th.
Vancouver Canucks @ St. Louis Blues
104. Prediction. -188. 99. +168
Goalies:
VAN Thatcher Demko
1-0-0 W/L, 1.00 GAA, 0.963 SV%
2-1-2 W/L, 2.96 GAA, 0.910 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #4:
Standings and Current Record:
The Canucks have a 3-2 record, sitting in the middle of the Pacific Division with six points. They’re trying to rebuild back into a playoff contender.
The Blues are 3-1-2 with eight points while defending their Stanley Cup championship. They’re sitting in second place in the Central Division. In a competitive division, a win is always needed. Here’s how they matchup:
Rankings:
Vancouver ranks 12th in goals for and 5th in goals allowed. Their power-play is ranked 17th, while their penalty kill is one of the league’s best ranked 2nd.
St. Louis ranks 16th in goals for and 19th in goals against. On special teams, their power play ranks 11th and their penalty kill ranks 4th. Both teams have shown they’re solid at keeping the opposition for tallying on the power play.
Betting Trends:
The Canucks are just 3-9 in their last 12 meetings against the Blues. However, they are 5-2 in the month of October in their last seven October games
The Blues are 5-1 at home vs the Canucks in their last six. They are also 5-1 in their last six against the Western Conference.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
The Canucks have wins over Detroit, LA, and Philadelphia. They have lost to Calgary and Edmonton. They are outscoring opponents 18-11.
The Blues have wins against Ottawa, Toronto, and Dallas. Losses to the Capitals, Islanders, and Canadiens. They have been outscored 20-19.
Analysis:
The Blues do not check all the boxes in this matchup, but why would you want to bet against the champs playing….Vancouver? I would advise not to pick against the champs.
% Chance to Win: Blues 65%
Pick: Blues -188
Thursday, October 17th.
New York Islanders @ Winnipeg Jets
Prediction. -125. 107. +105. 106
Goalies:
NYI Thomas Greiss
2-1-0 W/L, 2.27 GAA, 0.925 SV%
3-2-0 W/L, 2.82 GAA, 0.919 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #5:
Standings and Current Record:
The Islanders are 3-3 with six points in the young season. They surprised some people last season with their playoff run. They sit in the middle of the Metropolitan Division.
The Jets are 4-4 with eight points. Also, in the middle of the Central Division. Here’s how they matchup:
Rankings:
The Islanders rank 23rd in goals for and12th in goals against. Their power-play ranks 8th and their penalty kill ranks 22nd.
Winnipeg ranks 13th in goals and 24th in goals allowed. Their power play is 22nd and their struggling penalty kill ranks 27th. Not a strong special teams squad in the early going.
Betting Trends:
The Islanders are 3-7 straight up in their last ten, but 7-3 in their last ten against the Jets.
The Jets are 1-8 in their last nine home games and 1-6 in their last seven at home against the Islanders.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
The Islanders have wins over the Blues, Panthers, and Jets. They lost to Capitals, Oilers, and Hurricanes. They have been outscored 15-17.
The Jets have wins over Chicago, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and New Jersey. They have losses to Arizona, Pittsburgh, and these same New York Islanders. They are being outscored 30-26.
Analysis:
The Jets have too much firepower and the Isles do not have enough, even with a struggling Winnipeg defensive core the Jets take care of business to keep pace in a stacked Central Division.
% Chance to Win: Jets 51%
Pick: Jets -125
Thursday, October 17th.
Detroit Red Wings @ Calgary Flames
+200. 72. Prediction. -240. 112
Goalies:
DET Jimmy Howard
1-2-0 W/L, 3.39 GAA, 0.910 SV%
CGY David Rittich
3-2-1 W/L, 2.79GAA, 0.912 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #6:
Standings and Current Record:
The Detroit Red Wings are 3-3, sitting in the middle of the Atlantic Division. A win against a Western Conference foe would most likely move them up in the standings.
The Calgary Flames are 3-3-1 with seven points, sitting in the middle of the Pacific. Here is how they matchup with Detroit:
Rankings:
Detroit ranks 19th in goals for and 21st in goals allowed. Their power play is ranked 26th and penalty kill is ranked 23rd.
Calgary ranks 22nd in goals for and 13th in goals allowed. Their power play is slightly worse than Detroit at 24th, but their penalty kill ranks 9th.
Betting Trends:
The Red Wings are 1-5 in their last six vs the Flames, but 5-2 on the road in their last seven.
The Flames are 3-8 in their last eleven, but 4-1 at home vs Detroit in their last five. They have been outscored 17-21.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
The Red Wings have solid wins over Nashville, Dallas and Montreal. Losses to Vancouver, Toronto and Anaheim.
The Flames have wins over Philadelphia, Dallas, and Vancouver. Their losses are to San Jose, Vegas, and LA. They have been outscored 21-18.
Analysis:
Calgary has recently dominated Detroit. Take the heavy favored Flames at home. Calgary continues their hot record against Detroit at home.
% Chance to Win: Flames 64%
Pick: Flames -240
Thursday, October 17th.
Nashville Predators @ Arizona Coyotes
121. -118. 151. Prediction. +107
Goalies:
NSH Pekka Rinne
4-0-0 W/L, 2.75 GAA, 0.908 SV%
ARI Darcy Kuemper
2-2-0 W/L, 1.51 GAA, 0.955 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #7:
Standings and Current Record:
The Nashville Predators are currently 4-2 with eight points, trailing only Colorado in the Central Division.
The Arizona Coyotes are 2-2-1, which has them near the bottom in the Pacific Division. Here’s how they matchup:
Rankings:
The Predators rank at the top in the NHL in goals for and 26th in goals allowed. This season their power play ranks 14th and penalty kill ranks 24th. Much better than their last-ranked power play last season.
The Coyotes rank 26th in goals scored and 3rd in goals against. Their power-play ranks 22nd and their penalty kill ranks 14th.
Betting Trends:
Nashville is 4-2 in their last six and 5-1 vs the Pacific.
Arizona is 5-11 in their last sixteen, but 6-2 in their last eight games played on Thursdays.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
Nashville has wins over Vegas, Washington, Minnesota, and San Jose. Losses to Detroit and LA. They have outscored their competition 28-23.
Arizona has wins over Winnipeg and Vegas. Their losses are to Colorado, Boston, and Anaheim. They have outscored their opponents 11-9.
Analysis:
Even with Filip Forsberg listed as questionable, I like the Predators offense and Pekka Rinne to dominate a struggling Coyotes offense who is also missing their best defender.
% Chance to Win: Predators 58%
Pick: Predators -118
Thursday, October 17th.
Ottawa Senators @ Vegas Golden Knights
91. Prediction. -325. 942. +260
Goalies:
OTT Anders Nilsson
0-1-0 W/L, 5.08 GAA, 0.861 SV%
4-2-0 W/L, 2.56 GAA, 0.922 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #8:
Standings and Current Record:
The Ottawa Senators are 1-4 on the season, which has them sitting in dead last in the Atlantic Division. They need to desperately turn this thing around.
The Vegas Golden Knights are currently 4-3, sitting in third place in the Pacific Division and coming off a drubbing from the Nashville Predators. Here’s how they match up:
Rankings:
The Ottawa Senators are ranked 24th in goals for and 25th in goals against. On special teams their power-play ranks 31st and their penalty kill ranks 15th.
On the other side of things, Vegas ranks 9th in goals scored and 11th in goals allowed. Their power play ranks 6th and their penalty kill ranks 3rd. Strong special teams squad in the early going. They check a lot of boxes statistically.
Betting Trends:
The Senators are 1-6 in their last seven and 4-15 on the road.
Vegas is 1-5 against the Eastern Conference in their last six and 1-4 against the Atlantic Division.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
Ottawa beat Tampa but lost to the Wild, Rangers, Blues and Maple Leafs. They have been outscored badly19-12.
The Golden Knights have wins over LA, Calgary and a pair of wins over San Jose. They have losses to Nashville, Arizona and Boston. They have outscored opponents 26-19.
Analysis:
Vegas has too much depth against a weak opponent. Don’t bet against the house. Vegas takes this one and bounces back from a tough one Tuesday night.
% Chance to Win: Golden Knights 68%
Pick: Vegas -325
Thursday, October 17th.
Buffalo Sabres @ LA Kings
-117. 67. Prediction. +106. 12
Goalies:
BUF Carter Hutton
4-0-0 W/L, 1.74 GAA, 0.931 SV%
LAK Jonathan Quick
0-3-0 W/L, 6.4 GAA, 0.793 SV%
NHL Betting Pick #9:
Standings and Current Record:
The Buffalo Sabres are currently 5-0-1 atop of the Atlantic Division with 11 points. They’re off to a surprising start. Can they keep it up or return back to reality?
The LA Kings are 2-4, tied for last place in the Pacific Division. Another team looking to rebuild back into a playoff contender. Here is how they matchup:
Rankings:
Buffalo ranks 3rd in goals for and 4th in goals against. Their power play ranks best in the league, and their penalty kill ranks 20th.
The Kings rank 13th in goals scored and 30th in goals allowed. They give up a ton chances and now have to go up against the NHL’s best power play. Their power-play ranks 27th and penalty kill ranks 27th.
Betting Trends:
The Sabres are 7-2 in their last nine games but just 2-16 in their last eighteen road games.
The Kings are 2-4 in their last six games but 7-1 in their last eight games at home vs Buffalo.
Previous Games and Goal Differential:
The Sabres have wins over Dallas, Florida, Montreal, New Jersey and Pittsburgh. Their lone loss is to Columbus. They are outscoring opponents 25-13. What a margin.
The Kings have wins over Nashville and Calgary. They have losses to Carolina, Vegas, Vancouver and Edmonton. They are being outscored 28-20.
Analysis:
With Buffalo coming off a tough loss last night, and coming out tonight with a hot goaltender, I like them in this one. They’re going to bounce back and continue their great start to the season. Go with Buffalo.
% Chance to Win: Sabres 50%
Pick: Sabres +106
NHL Betting Picks Recap for Thursday, October 17th
6pm Central Time
Boston Bruins -120
Montreal Canadiens -163
New York Rangers +105
7 PM Central Time
St. Louis Blues -188
Winnipeg Jets -125
8 PM Central Time
Calgary Flames -240
9 PM Central Time
Nashville Predators -118
Vegas Golden Knights -320
9:30 PM Central Time
Buffalo Sabres +106
Best bets: Blues, Flames, Golden Knights, Predators
Next. Predators in the Desert to Take on Arizona Coyotes. dark
Unfortunately only two underdog picks, but expect some of the lines to move closer to puck drop.
Like the picks? Hate the pick? Leave a comment below and follow on Twitter @PredlinesNSH and @MattKlett27.