NHL Betting Picks, Predictions and Analysis for Tuesday Slate of Games
This week we are kicking off our second wave and second week of NHL betting picks. This includes win probability, matchup analysis and game predictions.
I’ll post my NHL betting picks on Thursday or Friday each week and post another wave of NHL betting picks on either Monday or Tuesday. Check out our first wave of betting picks from last week:
Related Story. NHL Betting Picks for Thursday Slate Week of 10/17. light
This season I have created my own betting model which keys into individual performance opposed to most models which use team performance. This model is far from perfect, but seems to be very accurate, given a very small sample size, thus far.
I have been posting all my NHL betting picks via twitter for the past two weeks. I am currently 61-30, including 6-0 last Wednesday and 6-1 last Tuesday. Sounds crazy, but to prove this insane record, each pick I have made is posted on my NHL picks twitter page, Twitter.com/picks_ice.
This week I’ll also post the models percentage chance to win for each game after many simulations, which takes road and home factors into account. Let’s go 9-0 today folks!
Away vs Home
Toronto 38.95% @ Boston 61.05%
LA Kings 42.45% @ Winnipeg 57.55%
Anaheim 42.75% @ Nashville 57.25%
Pittsburgh 45.6% @ Florida 54.4%
Edmonton 45.6% @ Minnesota 54.4%
San Jose 53.75% @ Buffalo 46.25%
Vegas 51.35% @ Chicago 48.65%
Vancouver 51.3% @ Detroit 48.7%
Washington 48.95% @ Calgary 51.05%
Arizona 50.25% @ New York R. 49.75%
(Rankings and betting trends via actionnetwork.com) Percent chance to win based off my model.
NHL Betting Pick #1:
70. Prediction. +155. 116. -175
For the first game today we head to Boston where the Boston Bruins take on the Toronto Maple Leafs who are coming off an overtime lose to the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Bruins are 5-1-2 and the Leafs are 5-3-2. In their last three Boston is 1-2 including a loss to Toronto. While the Maple Leafs are also 1-2 with their win coming over the Bruins. The big injury to note is John Tavares, who is out with a broken finger. Tough loss for Toronto that should affect this game and how you want to bet it.
Trends of note for Boston is that they are 13-7 in their last 20 games. They are 8-3 at home against Toronto in their last 11 matchups. Additionally, they are 8-2 against the Eastern conference in their last ten.
For the Leafs they are 3-8 on the road in Boston, 1-4 in games played on a Tuesday, and interestingly enough the total has gone over in 5 of their last 6.
The model gives Boston just over a 60 percent chance to win and the Leafs just under a 39 percent chance. With the Bruins at home and the Leafs without their captain, I like the Bruins -175.
NHL Betting Pick #2:
120. -110. 12. Prediction. +100
At 7 PM ET the Buffalo Sabres host the San Jose Sharks. Buffalo is streaking with a 7-1-1 record and the Sharks are struggling a bit with a 3-5 record after starting 0-4. In their last ten head-to-head matchups they’re almost even. In their last three games Buffalo is 2-1, including a 5-3 win over the Sharks. The Sharks are also 2-1 with their loss coming at the hands of Buffalo.
Trends of note include Buffalo being 5-1 in their last six. An impressive 5-0 record at home and 17-3 at home vs San Jose.
Trends for the Sharks are being 3-8 in their last 11 games and 5-12 in their last 17 against Buffalo. They’re also 3-17 on the road against Buffalo in their last 20.
The model gives San Jose a surprising 53.75% chance to win and Buffalo a 46.25% chance, however I like the Sabres at home -110. Two teams going in opposite directions perhaps.
NHL Betting Pick #3:
97. Prediction. +115. 92. -135
The Florida Panthers are taking on the Pittsburgh Penguins at home following a road win against the Nashville Predators. Florida is 3-2-3 even with their star-studded lineup and Pittsburgh is 6-3 coming into this game. Head-to-head Pittsburgh boasts a 7-1-2 record in the last ten matchups.
In their last three, Florida is 2-1 with a loss to a loaded Avalanche team and Pittsburgh is 2-1 coming off a loss to the Vegas Golden Knights.
Trends and injuries: The Penguins will be without Evgeni Malkin and the Panthers may be without Aleksander Barkov who is listed as probable. The Panthers are 3-7 in their last ten, and 2-4 in their last six. They’re also 2-6 against the Eastern Conference. As for the Penguins, they’re 5-1 in their last six, and 7-2 against Florida in their last nine. However, just 1-6 in their last seven against the Eastern Conference.
The model gives the home team, Florida Panthers, a 54.4% chance to win and Pittsburgh a 45.6% chance to win. I like the Panthers -135 to win coming off a big road win in Nashville.
NHL Betting Pick #4:
+100. 95. Prediction. -110. 121
The home team New York Rangers are 2-4 even after adding Artemi Panarin in the offseason. They face the defensive-minded Arizona Coyotes who might be one of the most underrated teams in hockey right now. Head-to-head New York holds a 8-1-1 record against Arizona in the last ten.
In their last three the Rangers are winless while Arizona is 3-0. Arizona has beaten Ottawa, Nashville and Winnipeg. New York has lost to Vancouver, Washington and New Jersey. Two teams going in different directions lately.
Recent trends show the Rangers are 1-4 in their last five. But, 9-1 at home against Arizona. They’re also 2-4 in their last six. As for Arizona, they are 4-1 in the last five, 2-9 in the last 11 against New York, and 1-9 on the road against the Rangers in their last ten.
The model likes Arizona with a 50.25% chance. I like this pick, Coyotes -110. They keep the Rangers from scoring too much.
NHL Betting Pick #5:
72. Prediction. -120. 104. +100
Next up on the slate, the Detroit Red Wings host the Vancouver Canucks. The Red Wings are just 3-5 on the season, while the Canucks boast a 5-3 record. Head-to-head Detroit is 5-4-1 in their last ten, while Vancouver is 5-2-3.
In the last three games this season Detroit is 0-3, losing to the Oilers, Flames, and these Canucks. In their last three Vancouver is 2-1, beating the Rangers and Blues, while losing to the Devils.
Recent trends show that Detroit is 5-2 in their last seven at home against Vancouver and 1-5 in their last six games this season. As for Vancouver, they are 4-1 in their last five, but 2-5 in their last seven at Detroit.
The model gives Vancouver a slight edge at 51.7%, but I will take the Wings +100 who are due for a win at home with a 48.3% chance to win. This game is very close to being a toss-up and should be a good one.
NHL Betting Pick #6:
Prediction. +135. 105. -155. 151
The 4-3-1 Nashville Predators host the 6-3-0 Anaheim Ducks. The Predators are coming off a home loss to the Panthers and are expecting to bounce back. In the last ten head-to-head matchups, Nashville is 7-1-2 against Anaheim. We’ll also never forget their Western Conference Finals win that sent Nashville to the Stanley Cup Final.
In their last three, the Predators are 1-2-1, beating Vegas and losing to Florida and Arizona. The underrated Ducks may have the best goalie in hockey in John Gibson. They’re 2-1 in the last three, losing to Calgary, but beating Carolina and Buffalo.
As for trends, the Predators are 7-1 at home against the Ducks. They’re also 10-4 in the last 14 against the Pacific Division. The Ducks are 1-7 on the road in Nashville in the last eight and 2-6 in the last eight games vs Nashville. A series that has been mostly dominated by Nashville in recent times.
The model gives the Predators a healthy 57.25% chance to win and the Anaheim Ducks a 42.75% chance to win. Take the home team, I like Nashville -155 to continue their recent success over Anaheim.
NHL Betting Pick #7:
98. Prediction. +100. 148. -120
At 7 PM CDT the Minnesota Wild host the Edmonton Oilers. Minnesota is 2-6 and Edmonton is 7-1-1 this season. Head-to-head in the last ten, each team has won five and lost five in the series.
In the last three games this season, the Wild are 1-2, splitting with Montreal while also losing to Toronto. The Oilers are 2-1 following an overtime loss to Winnipeg and getting wins against Detroit and Philadelphia.
Trend wise Minnesota is 2-8 in the last ten, and an ugly 4-14 in the last 18 home games They’re also 2-6 overall on the season. For Edmonton, they’re 8-2 in the last ten, 4-2 in the last six against the Wild, but 3-7 in the last ten against the Western Conference.
The model shockingly likes the Wild with a 54.4% chance to win. This gives the Oilers a 45.6% chance to win. In a toss-up, take the model. Minnesota wins at home -120.
NHL Betting Pick #8:
+125. 67. -145. 107. Prediction
The Winnipeg Jets host the LA Kings in a Western conference matchup. The Jets are 5-5 and the Kings are 3-5 on the year. Head-to-head the Jets hold a 6-3-1 advantage in the last ten.
In the last three games Winnipeg is 1-2, losing to the Islanders and Coyotes, but recently beating the Oilers in overtime. LA is also 1-2, beating the Hurricanes and losing to the Sabres and Hurricanes.
As for trends, the Jets are just 2-9 at home in their last 11, but 4-1 at home against Los Angeles. The Kings are 2-4 in the last six and 2-4 in the last six against Winnipeg. They’re 4-11 in the last 15 games played in October.
The model gives the Jets a solid 57.55% chance to win and the Kings a 42.45% chance. The Jets have recently dominated the Kings. Take Winnipeg -145 with high confidence.
NHL Betting Pick #9:
Prediction. -120. 942. +110. 94
The Chicago Blackhawks are 2-3-1 on the year and host the 6-4 Vegas Golden Knights tonight. Head-to-head Vegas has never lost to Chicago, they are 6-0. Wow, surprising little nugget there.
In the last three games this year, Chicago is 2-1 beating the Blue Jackets and Oilers, but losing to the Capitals. Vegas is 2-1, beating the Senators and Penguins, but losing to the Flyers last night.
Recent trends show the Blackhawks are 2-5 in the last seven games and 6-14 against the Pacific Division in the last 20 games. The Golden Knights are 4-2 in the last six this year, 6-0 versus Chicago all-time, but 1-4 versus the Central Division in their last five.
The model gives Vegas a slight 51.35% advantage with Malcolm Subban projected to be in net. The Hawks have a 48.65% chance to win. I like the underdog tonight. Blackhawks +110 as they continue their rebuild project.
NHL Betting Pick #10:
Prediction. +100. 19. -120. 112
In the last matchup at 8 PM CDT, the Calgary Flames host the Washington Capitals. The Flames are 5-4-1 this year and the Capitals are 6-2-2. Head-to-head in the last ten Washington is 6-2-2, and Calgary is 4-5-1.
In the last three games on the season, Calgary is 2-1 losing to Los Angeles and beating Anaheim and Detroit. Washington is a perfect 3-0, beating Chicago, Toronto and the New York Rangers.
Looking at the trends, the Flames are 1-4 in the last five at home against Washington, but 6-0 in the last six matchups versus the Eastern Conference. The Capitals are 4-2 in the last six versus Calgary. They’re 4-1 in the last five games they’ve played on the road and 4-1 on the road against Calgary.
The model gives Calgary a minuscule 51% chance to win in the matchup that should be very even. However, going with trends I’ll take the Capitals +100 and their 49% chance to win. Too much offensive firepower.
Check out our game preview of Predators and Ducks tonight:
Next. Game Preview for Predators and Ducks. dark
Recap:
- Bruins -175
- Sabres -115
- Panthers -135
- Coyotes -110
- Red Wings +100
- Predators -155
- Wild -120
- Winnipeg -145
- Blackhawks +110
- Capitals +100
Highest confidence Bets:
Bruins, Jets, Predators.