NHL Betting Picks, Predictions, Probability and Analysis for Thursday, October 24th

It has been one full week since kicking off our, twice weekly, NHL betting picks. This Thursday marks the third slate of games we will be picking. All NHL picks include win probability, based off 10,000 simulations calculated by my NHL Prediction Model, matchup analysis, and game predictions.

This season I have created my own betting model, the NHL Prediction Model, created for daily NHL picks. The NHL Prediction Model keys into individual performance opposed to most models which use team performance. This model has been very accurate for NHL betting picks, given a relatively small sample size of 102 games.

I have been posting all of the model’s NHL betting picks via twitter, daily, for the past three weeks. My NHL picks are currently 70-25-7, including 9-3 so far this week. The NHL Prediction Model also went on a 12-1 run at the beginning of last week. Sounds crazy, but to prove this insane record, each pick I make is posted, in the morning prior to the games, on my NHL picks twitter page, Twitter.com/picks_ice. 

Additionally, I post my daily betting picks on Predlines each Monday or Tuesday. Then I post another wave of NHL betting picks, on Predlines, either Thursday or Friday of the same week.

Check out our last round of NHL picks from Tuesday, October 24th. On Tuesday, the NHL Prediction Model went 7-3 and my picks went 7-2-1 (3 picks against the model)!

This week, I will start posting low, medium, and high-risk NHL picks based on the model projections. Those will be featured under Best Bets, on the very last slide.

Let’s see if the NHL Prediction Model can go 10-0 today.

The Index to jump to a game, recap, or best bets is located on the next slide.

(Rankings and betting trends via actionnetwork.com) Percent chance to win based off my NHL Prediction Model.

Percent Chance to Win and Page Index

On this slide, all of today’s games are valued as a percent chance to win. The NHL Prediction Model calculates a percent chance to win for each game by running 10,000 simulations. Most of my NHL picks are based upon these simulations.  Here is each teams percent chance to win for Thursday, October 24th.

Jump to a Game, Pick Recap, or Best Bets:

1. MTL vs SJS
2. NYI vs ARI
3. NYR vs BUF
4. CBJ vs CAR
5. STL vs LAK
6. NSH vs MIN
7. CHI vs PHI
8. DAL vs ANA
9. CGY vs FLA
10. EDM vs WSH
11. Pick Recap
12. Best Bets

NHL Betting Picks, #1

SJS @ MTL 7 PM ET

The first matchup today features the Montreal Canadiens (4-3-2) and their guest, the San Jose Sharks (3-5-1). Both teams are coming off one-point losses and our looking to bounce back. Head-to-head the San Jose Sharks are 3-0 in their last three games against the Montreal Canadiens.

In the Standings:

The Canadiens sit in sixth place in the loaded Atlantic division, but only trail third place by two points. The Sharks are currently in dead last in the Pacific division. Since starting the season 0-4, the Sharks have bounced back and are 3-1-1 since.

Rankings: MTL

Offense: Goals 5, Shots 9, PP 8.

Defense: Goals 19, Shots 16, PK 27.

Rankings: SJS

Offense: Goals 23, Shots 24, PP 11.

Defense: Goals 23, Shots 19, PK 1.

Montreal Last 3 Games 2-1:

10/20 Loss- @Minnesota Wild 3-4

10/19 Win- @ St. Louis Blues 5-2

10/17 Win- vs Minnesota Wild 4-0

San Jose Last 3 Games 1-1-1:

10/22 Loss- @ Buffalo Sabres 3-4 OT

10/19 Loss- vs Buffalo Sabres 3-4

10/16 Win- vs Carolina Hurricanes 5-2

Trends for Montreal:

7-2 in their last nine at home. 4-1 in their last five vs the Western Conference. 1-9 in their last ten games vs San Jose.

Trends for San Jose:

3-9 in their last twelve games. 1-6 in their last seven away games. 8-0 in their last eight against Montreal. 1-4 in their last five vs the Eastern Conference.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives Montreal a 53.5% chance to win. Statistically, Montreal dominates San Jose in every category. Additionally, San Jose being 1-6 in their last seven road games is a much more relevant stat than being 8-0 in their last eight head-to-head matchups since that statistic dates all the way back to 2015. Montreal will be the first of ten NHL betting picks today.

Take the Montreal Canadiens -125

NHL Betting Picks, #2

ARI @ NYI 7 PM ET

In the second game today, we have the 5-2-1 Arizona Coyotes visiting the 5-3 New York Islanders. Both teams are coming off four-game win streaks and each team is looking to keep their win streak alive. Head-to-head the Islanders are 2-0-1 against the Coyotes in their last three.

In the Standings:

The Canadiens are in fourth place in the Metropolitan division but have three games in hand and could tie the Washington Capitals, who sit in first place, with three straight wins. The Coyotes have been taking the Western conference by surprise, they sit in fifth place in the Pacific division but also have three games in hand and could overtake first place with three straight wins.

Rankings: NYI

Offense: Goals 22, Shots 29, PP 3.

Defense: Goals 7, Shots 20, PK 23.

Rankings: ARI

Offense: Goals 14, Shots 13, PP 7.

Defense: Goals 2, Shots 18, PK 12.

New York I. Last 3 Games 3-0:

10/19 Win- @Columbus Blue Jackets 3-2

10/17 Win- @Winnipeg Jets 3-1

10/14 Win- vs St. Louis Blues 3-2

Arizona Last 3 Games 3-0:

10/22 Win- @New York Rangers 3-2

10/19 Win- vs Ottawa Senators 5-2

10/17 Win- vs Nashville Predators 5-2

Trends for the Islanders:

4-1 in their last five. 6-0 at home vs Arizona. 6-1 in the last seven against the Western conference.

Trends for the Coyotes:

5-1 in their last 6. 3-7 in their last ten against the Islanders. 0-6 on the road vs the Islanders. 1-4 in the last five against the Metro division.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives the New York Islanders a slight edge over Arizona at 52.5%. Statistically, Arizona has the advantage. As for trends, the Islanders have the clear edge. I like the pick from the NHL Prediction Model in this contest.

Take the New York Islanders -115

NHL Betting Picks, #3

BUF @ NYR 7 PM ET

In the third game on todays slate, the New York Rangers (2-4-1) host the Buffalo Sabres (8-1-1). The Sabres are on a three game win streak while the Rangers are on a five game losing streak. Head-to-head the Rangers hold a slight 2-1 advantage over the Sabres in their last three meetings.

In the Standings:

Buffalo is leading the Atlantic division with 17 points while the New York Rangers sit in last in the Metro Division.

Rankings: NYR

Offense: Goals 19, Shots 19, PP 19.

Defense: Goals 26, Shots 31, PK 18.

Rankings: BUF

Offense: Goals 4, Shots 16, PP 4.

Defense: Goals 5, Shots 23, PK 21.

New York R. Last 3 Games 0-3:

10/22 Loss- vs Arizona Coyotes 2-3

10/20 Loss- vs Vancouver Canucks 2-3

10/18 Loss- @Washington Capitals 2-5

Buffalo Last 3 Games 3-0:

10/22 Win- vs San Jose Sharks 4-3

10/19 Win- @San Jose Sharks 4-3

10/17 Win- @LA Kings 3-0

Trends for the Rangers:

0-5 in last five. 8-2 in last ten at home vs Buffalo. 6-4 in their last ten games vs Buffalo.

Trends for the Sabres:

6-1 in their last seven. 1-6 in their last seven vs the Rangers. 4-16 in their last twenty road games (3-2 this season).

Pick Analysis:

Two NHL picks down so far, but this third game is tricky. The model gives the Rangers a 53.25% chance to win. Statistically Buffalo dominates. Trend wise, Buffalo is a terrible road team. The Rangers are 0-5 in their last five games and are desperate for a win. The Rangers have recently come up short in very close games vs good opponents. I like the underdog Rangers in this home matchup.

Take the New York Rangers +105

NHL Betting Picks, #4

CAR @ CBJ 7 PM ET

For the fourth game today, the Columbus Blue Jackets host the Carolina Hurricanes. The Blue Jackets are currently 4-3-2 and the Hurricanes are 6-3. Columbus is on a one-game win streak while their opponent is on a two-game losing streak. Head-to-head Columbus is 2-1 against Carolina in their last three.

In the Standings:

The Blue Jackets are tied for fourth in the Metropolitan division, trailing second place Carolina by just two points. This is a huge divisional game for both clubs.

Rankings: CBJ

Offense: Goals 29, Shots 5, PP 25.

Defense: Goals 16, Shots 8, PK 21.

Rankings: CAR

Offense: Goals 11, Shots 6, PP 16.

Defense: Goals 12, Shots 3, PK 17.

Columbus Last 3 Games 1-2:

10/21 Win- @Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3

10/19 Loss- vs New York Islanders 2-3

10/18 Loss- @ Chicago Blackhawks 2-3

Carolina Last 3 Games 1-2:

10/18 Loss- @ Anaheim Ducks 2-4

10/16 Loss- @San Jose Sharks 2-5

10/15 Win- @LA Kings 2-0

Trends for Columbus:

4-8 in their last twelve. 3-6 in the last nine vs the Eastern conference. 4-2 in their last six divisional games.

Trends for Carolina:

6-3 in their last nine. 5-1 in last six vs the Eastern conference. 8-1 in their last nine divisional games.

Pick Analysis:

So far I like my NHL picks, but I am not too sure about this one. The model has the Hurricanes at 50.3% chance to win. This is the lowest probability of any game today. Statistically, Carolina has the edge. As for trends, Carolina also has the advantage.

Take (With Warning) the Carolina Hurricanes -120

NHL Betting Picks, #5

LAK @ STL 8 PM ET

For the fifth game today, the LA Kings head to St. Louis to take on the Blues. The Kings are coming off two upset wins against Calgary and Winnipeg boosting their record to 4-5. The Blues are 4-2-3 after a recent win over Colorado. Head-to-head the Kings hold a 2-1 advantage in the last three meetings.

In the Standings:

The Blues are tied for second, with Nashville, and just four points out of first in the Central division. The LA Kings are in seventh place in the Pacific division but things seem to be trending upward after winning two straight games.

Rankings: STL

Offense: Goals 18, Shots 23, PP 12.

Defense: Goals 20, Shots 9, PK 10.

Rankings: LAK

Offense: Goals 16, Shots 2, PP 28.

Defense: Goals 30, Shots 2, PK 26.

St. Louis Last 3 Games 1-2:

10/21 Win- vs Colorado 3-1

10/19 Loss- vs Montreal 2-5

10/17 Loss- vs Vancouver 3-4

Los Angeles Last 3 Games 2-1:

10/22 Win- @Winnipeg 3-2

10/19 Win- vs Calgary 4-1

10/17 Loss- vs Buffalo 0-3

Trends for St. Louis:

1-4 in their last five games. 5-1 in their last six against the Western conference. 2-1-2 at home this season. 3 of 5 total losses decided by one goal.

Trends for LA:

4-2 in their last six against the Western conference. 5-11 in their last sixteen games played in October (4-5 this year, 1-6 prior). 4 of their 5  losses this season have been decided by shutout or more than three goals.

Pick Analysis:

Thus far all my NHL picks line up with the NHL Prediction Model. This one is the model’s heaviest hitter and I agree. The NHL Prediction Model likes St. Louis at 63.3%. Surprisingly, these teams are just about even statistically. Trend-wise the Kings either get blown out or they blow out their opponent. I do not see them blowing out the defending champs.

Take the St. Louis Blues -175

NHL Betting Picks, #6

MIN @ NSH 8 PM ET

At 8 PM ET the 3-6 Minnesota Wild head to Nashville to square off against the 5-3-1 Nashville Predators. The Predators are coming off a 6-1 blowout win over the Anaheim Ducks. The Wild are coming in on a two-game win streak after shutting out the Oilers and taking out the Canadiens. Head-to-head the Predators are 3-0 in the last three meetings.

In the Standings:

These two-division rivals are on opposite ends of the standings. Minnesota is in last place in the Central division with six points. Nashville is in second place, four points out of first place.

Rankings: NSH

Offense: Goals 2, Shots 11, PP 15.

Defense: Goals 28, Shots 12, PK 30.

Rankings: MIN

Offense: Goals 29, Shots 20, PP 22.

Defense: Goals 31, Shots 17, PK 20.

Nashville Last 3 Games 1-2:

10/22 Win- vs Anaheim 6-1

10/19 Loss- vs Florida 2-3

10/17 Loss- @Arizona 2-5

Minnesota Last 3 Games 2-1:

10/22 Win- vs Edmonton 3-0

10/20 Win- vs Montreal 4-3

10/17 Loss- @Montreal 0-4

Trends for Nashville:

6-0 in last six at home vs Minnesota. 4-2 against the Western conference in their last six. 7-3 in their last ten vs Minnesota.

Trends for Minnesota:

3-8 in their last eleven. 1-7 in their last eight road games. 0-6 in their last six games played on the road in Nashville.

Pick Analysis:

Game six of Thursday’s NHL picks is an easy one. The model favors the Nashville Predators at 54.25%. The model’s NHL picks are also undefeated when picking against the Wild. Additionally, after running the simulations Minnesota’s starting goaltender, Devan Dubynk, has been ruled out. The Predators dominate statistically and in recent trends. With a win over the Wild earlier this season and the Wild missing their net-minder, this pick is a no brainer.

Take the Nashville Predators -165

NHL Betting Picks, #8

ANA @ DAL 8:30 PM ET

In the eighth game tonight we will have the Dallas Stars (3-7-1) taking on the Anaheim Ducks (6-4) in Dallas. The Stars are on a two-game win streak while the Ducks are on a two-game losing streak. Head-to-head Dallas is 2-1 vs Anaheim in the last three meetings.

In the Standings:

The Stars sit near the bottom of the Central division with the most games played. The Ducks, on the other hand, are tied for third in the Pacific division.

Rankings: DAL

Offense: Goals 31, Shots 30, PP 27.

Defense: Goals 13, Shots 4, PK 5.

Rankings: ANA

Offense: Goals 25, Shots 27, PP 30.

Defense: Goals 1, Shots 7, PK 11.

Dallas Last 3 Games 2-1:

10/21 Win- vs Ottawa 2-1

10/19 Win- @Philadelphia 4-1

10/18 Loss- @Pittsburgh 2-4

Anaheim Last 3 Games 1-2:

10/22 Loss- @Nashville 1-6

10/20 Loss- vs Calgary 1-2

10/18 Win- vs Carolina 4-2

Trends for Dallas:

3-10 in their last thirteen games. 6-0 at home vs Anaheim. 1-4 in their last five vs the Western conference.

Trends for Anaheim:

9-4 in their last thirteen. 5-2 in their last seven against the Western conference. 6-4 in the last ten meetings against Dallas.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model likes the Stars at a hefty 60.35%. Statistically, Anaheim has a clear advantage. Trend wise I like Dallas at home. The Stars are desperate for a win to keep up in the Central division. They have plenty of fire power that has not seemed to click yet. When the NHL Prediction Model gives a greater than 60% chance to win, take it.

Take the Dallas Stars -145

NHL Betting Picks, #9

FLA @ CGY 9 PM ET

In the ninth game for todays slate the Calgary Flames (5-5-1) will host the Florida Panthers (4-2-3). Florida boasts a two-game win streak while the Flames are on a one-game losing streak. Head-to-head the Panthers are 2-1 against the Flames in the last three matchups.

In the Standings:

Calgary sits in sixth place in the Pacific division, despite having played in the most games. The Panthers are tied for fourth place in the Atlantic division and could jump up in the standings with a win against the Flames.

Rankings: CGY

Offense: Goals 23, Shots 16, PP 22.

Defense: Goals 12, Shots 14, PK 4.

Rankings: FLA

Offense: Goals 10, Shots 3, PP 16.

Defense: Goals 29, Shots 10, PK 7.

Calgary Last 3 Games 1-2:

10/22 Loss- vs Washington 3-5

10/20 Win- @Anaheim 2-1

10/19 Loss- @LA 1-4

Florida Last 3 Games 2-1:

10/22 Win- vs Pittsburgh 4-2

10/19 Win- @Nashville 3-2

10/18 Loss- vs Colorado 4-5

Trends for Calgary:

6-12 in their last eighteen. 6-1 in their last seven Eastern conference matchups. 3-1-1 at home on the season.

Trends for Florida:

2-5 in their last seven vs Calgary. 7-3 in their last ten vs the Pacific division. 6-14 in their last twenty games played in October.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model has the Flames at a 51.5% chance to win. Statistically, Florida has the offensive advantage but not the defensive advantage. Trend-wise, there is some good and some bad for each team. I consider the trends to be fairly even. However, I like Sergei Bobrovsky and Panthers lethal offense.  Additionally, the one team the model has shown error with in it’s NHL picks is the Florida Panthers. This is why I like Florida. Now we have two NHL betting picks against the model.

Take the Florida Panthers +105

NHL Betting Picks, #10

WSH @ EDM 9 PM ET

In the final matchup for Thursday night, the 7-2-1 Edmonton Oilers host the 7-2-2 Washington Capitals. The Capitals have won four straight games and the Oilers have lost two straight games. Head-to-head Capitals are 2-1 vs the Oilers in their last three.

In the Standings:

The Capitals sit at the top of the Metropolitan division with 16 points. The Oilers also sit atop their division, the Pacific division, with 15 points.

Rankings: EDM

Offense: Goals 13, Shots 31, PP 3.

Defense: Goals 6, Shots 15, PK 5.

Rankings: WSH

Offense: Goals 5, Shots 18, PP 10.

Defense: Goals 15, Shots 7, PK 10.

Edmonton Last 3 Games 1-2:

10/22 Loss- @Minnesota 0-3

10/20 Loss- @Winnipeg 0-1

10/18 Win- vs Detroit 2-1

Washington Last 3 Games 3-0:

10/22 Win- @Calgary 5-3

10/20 Win- @Chicago 5-3

10/18 Win- vs New York R. 5-2

Trends for Edmonton:

8-3 in their last eleven. 4-1 in last five home games. 11-4 in their last fifteen at home vs Washington.

Trends for Washington:

4-1 in their last five vs Edmonton. 5-1 in their last six road games. 4-1 on the road vs the Western conference this season.

Pick Analysis:

Nine NHL picks down, one remains. The NHL Prediction Model has the Capitals at a 54.6% chance to win. This is the model’s third most confident pick today. Statistically, the Capitals have the better offense and Edmonton has the better defense. The Oilers top line is lethal but the Capitals have depth. As for trends, Edmonton is 11-4 at home vs Washington in the last fifteen. However, in the last two seasons the Capitals are 3-1 vs the Oilers. They are trending upwards in road games as well. As much as I want to take the home underdog, I like the model prediction.

Take the Washington Capitals -130

NHL Picks Recap

To recap, I like most of the model’s picks today.  However, I am taking two picks against the model. Here are all of the free NHL picks for today:

         My Picks             Model Picks

• MTL -125                     MTL -125

• NYI -115                      NYI -115

• NYR +105                    NYR +105

• CAR -120                     CAR -120

• STL -175                      STL -175

• NSH -165                    NSH -165

• PHI -110                      CHI -110

• DAL -145                     DAL -145

• FLA +105                     CAL -125

• WSH -130                  WSH -130

Best Bets

The best bets have fared well thru the first two articles. Our NHL betting picks went 7-3 last week and the best bets were 3-1. Hopefully our luck continues. Starting today I will post low-risk, medium-risk, and high-risk picks. Nevertheless, here are my top free NHL betting picks for Thursday.

Best Low Risk Bet. Three NHL Picks:

STL -175, DAL -145, NSH -165.

Parlay 1: 3.26 or 10: 32.64

Best Medium Risk Bet. Four NHL Picks:

WSH -130, MTL -125, NYR +105, NSH -165.

Parlay 1: 9.49 or 10: 94.85

Best High Risk Bet. Five NHL Betting Picks:

NSH -165, MTL -125, STL -175, NYR +105, FLA +105.

Parlay 1: 17.77 or 10: 177.65