NHL Point Total Projections As Of October 25th, 2019
By Matt Klett
Every other week we will be posting Matt Klett’s NHL Prediction Model and its results that calculate NHL point total projections. The NHL point total projections include: NHL standings projections, NHL division projections, and projected NHL playoff matchups. Projections are all based on his NHL Prediction Model. The model is currently 76-27-9 on game predictions this year.
The NHL Prediction Model keys in on certain variables, mainly individual variables, and after running many different model simulations it can calculate NHL point total projections, NHL standings projections, NHL division projections, and projected NHL playoff matchups.
(Want to skip to a certain page? Index with hyperlinks located at the end of this page)
Many variables are used to calculate these projections including current injuries, road and home statistics, and many different individual statistics (such as expected goals, average time on ice, etc.) that are weighted into a team score. The model’s daily game predictions, which are 15-4-3 this week, are posted daily on Twitter @picks_ice.
Using the NHL Prediction Model, 10,000 simulations have been run for each remaining game this season. The model simulates each game, that has not been played, for the remainder of the season. It also includes the total points accrued by each team to date.
I will share my thoughts on these projections on the final slide. Some of these NHL point total projections, NHL standings projections, projected NHL playoff matchups, and NHL division projections seem slightly off. For example, I think the Colorado Avalanche finish with more than 100 points and the Tampa Bay Lightning finish with fewer points than the Boston Bruins.
Index: Click to Jump to the Slide You Want
Projected Conference Standings
Thoughts and Overrated/Underrated
The next slide contains the projected final standings (slide 2), followed by the projected conference standings (slide 3), followed by the NHL division projections (slide 4), and concluding with the projected NHL playoff matchups (slide 5).