NHL Point Total Projections As Of October 25th, 2019
Every other week we will be posting Matt Klett’s NHL Prediction Model and its results that calculate NHL point total projections. The NHL point total projections include: NHL standings projections, NHL division projections, and projected NHL playoff matchups. Projections are all based on his NHL Prediction Model. The model is currently 76-27-9 on game predictions this year.
The NHL Prediction Model keys in on certain variables, mainly individual variables, and after running many different model simulations it can calculate NHL point total projections, NHL standings projections, NHL division projections, and projected NHL playoff matchups.
(Want to skip to a certain page? Index with hyperlinks located at the end of this page)
Many variables are used to calculate these projections including current injuries, road and home statistics, and many different individual statistics (such as expected goals, average time on ice, etc.) that are weighted into a team score. The model’s daily game predictions, which are 15-4-3 this week, are posted daily on Twitter @picks_ice.
Using the NHL Prediction Model, 10,000 simulations have been run for each remaining game this season. The model simulates each game, that has not been played, for the remainder of the season. It also includes the total points accrued by each team to date.
I will share my thoughts on these projections on the final slide. Some of these NHL point total projections, NHL standings projections, projected NHL playoff matchups, and NHL division projections seem slightly off. For example, I think the Colorado Avalanche finish with more than 100 points and the Tampa Bay Lightning finish with fewer points than the Boston Bruins.
Index: Click to Jump to the Slide You Want
Projected Conference Standings
Thoughts and Overrated/Underrated
The next slide contains the projected final standings (slide 2), followed by the projected conference standings (slide 3), followed by the NHL division projections (slide 4), and concluding with the projected NHL playoff matchups (slide 5).
NHL Standings Projections and NHL Point Total Projections
For the NHL standings projections, each team underwent 10,000 simulations for each game remaining on their schedule. The results below are the average point totals that the NHL Prediction Model projected, rounded to the nearest whole number.
As more games are played, the NHL standings projections and NHL point total projections from my NHL Prediction Model will become more accurate. These projections will be updated bi-weekly. It will be very interesting to see how these projections fare with the results in April.
The next page will be the projected conference standings based on these results, the following slide will be the divisional standings, and the following slide will be projected NHL playoff matchups.
Playoff teams are bolded and marked with an asterisk (*).
NHL PROJECTED POINT TOTALS / NHL STANDINGS PROJECTIONS
Tampa Bay Lightning* 118
Boston Bruins *109
Toronto Maple Leafs* 102
Washington Capitals *102
Nashville Predators* 101
Carolina Hurricanes* 100
Calgary Flames* 100
Pittsburgh Penguins* 100
St. Louis Blues* 99
Vegas Golden Knights* 98
San Jose Sharks* 96
New York Islanders* 95
Colorado Avalanche* 95
Montreal Canadiens* 94
Columbus Blue Jackets 94
Winnipeg Jets* 92
Dallas Stars* 91
Edmonton Oilers 90
Florida Panthers 89
Arizona Coyotes 88
Buffalo Sabres 88
Anaheim Ducks 88
Philadelphia Flyers 87
Vancouver Canucks 85
Minnesota Wild 85
Chicago Blackhawks 84
New Jersey Devils 78
New York Rangers 78
Detroit Red Wings 74
Los Angeles Kings 73
Ottawa Senators 66
Projected Conference Standings
The projected conference standings are the same results as the previous slide, that showed my NHL standings projections. This slide just breaks up the results so that it is easier to read and visualize.
The NHL point total projections for each team below seem to show a trend that favors clubs with offensive consistency and solid goaltending.
The next slide will be then NHL division projections, the following slide will be projected NHL playoff matchups, and the last slide will be final thoughts including which teams are underrated and overrated.
Playoff teams are bolded and marked with an asterisk (*).
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Tampa Bay Lightning* 118
Boston Bruins* 109
Toronto Maple Leafs* 102
Washington Capitals* 102
Carolina Hurricanes* 100
Pittsburgh Penguins* 100
New York Islanders* 95
Montreal Canadiens* 94
Columbus Blue Jackets 94
Florida Panthers 89
Buffalo Sabres 88
Philadelphia Flyers 87
New Jersey Devils 78
New York Rangers 78
Detroit Red Wings 74
Ottawa Senators 66
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Nashville Predators* 101
Calgary Flames* 100
St. Louis Blues* 99
Vegas Golden Knights* 98
San Jose Sharks* 96
Colorado Avalanche* 95
Winnipeg Jets* 92
Dallas Stars* 91
Edmonton Oilers 90
Arizona Coyotes 88
Anaheim Ducks 88
Vancouver Canucks 85
Minnesota Wild 85
Chicago Blackhawks 84
Los Angeles Kings 73
NHL Division Projections
The NHL Division projections align with the conference and overall standings projections on the previous slides. Again, this slide makes it easier to visualize the divisional standings.
The next slide will be projected NHL playoff matchups, and the last slide will be final thoughts including who is underrated and overrated.
Playoff teams are bolded and marked with an asterisk (*).
EASTERN CONFERENCE:
METROPOLITAN DIVISION
- Washington Capitals* 102
- Carolina Hurricanes* 100
- Pittsburgh Penguins*100
- New York Islanders* 95
- Columbus Blue Jackets 94
- Philadelphia Flyers 87
- New Jersey Devils 78
- New York Rangers 78
ATLANTIC DIVISION
- Tampa Bay Lightning* 118
- Boston Bruins* 109
- Toronto Maple Leafs* 102
- Montreal Canadiens* 94
- Florida Panthers 89
- Buffalo Sabres 88
- Detroit Red Wings 74
- Ottawa Senators 66
WESTERN CONFERENCE:
CENTRAL DIVISION
- Nashville Predators* 101
- St. Louis Blues* 99
- Colorado Avalanche* 95
- Winnipeg Jets* 92
- Dallas Stars* 91
- Minnesota Wild 85
- Chicago Blackhawks 84
PACIFIC DIVISION
- Calgary Flames* 100
- Vegas Golden Knights *98
- San Jose Sharks* 96
- Edmonton Oilers 90
- Arizona Coyotes 88
- Anaheim Ducks 88
- Vancouver Canucks 85
- Los Angeles Kings 73
Projected NHL Playoff Matchups
The projected NHL playoff matchups are fully based on the NHL prediction model and its results listed in the previous slides. These projections, most likely, will change as the simulations are run again in two weeks.
Playoff Seeding:
The number one overall seed is the team with the most points, in their respective conferences, they will face the team with the eighth-most points in that conference (Wild Card 2). The number two overall seed, in their respective conference, is the division winner that is not awarded the number one overall seed, they square off against the team with the seventh-most points in the conference (Wild Card 1).
The teams that finish second and third in their divisions face each other in the first round. Example: In the NHL division projections, the St. Louis Blues finish second in the Central Division and the Colorado Avalanche finish third in the Central division, they go head-to-head in round #1.
PROJECTED NHL PLAYOFF MATCHUPS, EASTERN CONFERENCE
Atlantic Division First Round:
1 Seed: Tampa Bay Lightning
vs
Wild Card 2: Montreal Canadiens
2 Seed: Boston Bruins
vs
3 Seed: Toronto Maple Leafs
Metropolitan Division First Round:
1 Seed: Washington Capitals
vs
Wild Card 1: New York Islanders
2 Seed: Carolina Hurricanes
vs
3 Seed: Pittsburgh Penguins
PROJECTED NHL PLAYOFF MATCHUPS, WESTERN CONFERENCE
Central Division First Round:
1 Seed: Nashville Predators
vs
Wild Card 2: Dallas Stars
2 Seed: St. Louis Blues
vs
3 Seed: Colorado Avalanche
Pacific Division First Round:
1 Seed: Calgary Flames
vs
Wild Card 1: Winnipeg Jets
2 Seed: Vegas Golden Knights
vs
3 Seed: San Jose Sharks
Thoughts on the NHL Point Total Projections From the NHL Prediction Model
The top ten teams are not much of a surprise. However, the Nashville Predators winning the Western Conference, Calgary finishing second in the Western Conference, and Colorado finishing third in the Central is surprising. It seems the “NHL prediction model” is heavily favoring the teams with consistent goaltending and scoring depth. The NHL division projections heavily favor these two factors.
Example 1: The Nashville Predators have a great goalie in Pekka Rinne and their depth between their four lines is probably the best in the Western conference, hence the projected Western conference crown.
Example 2: On the other side of this are the Edmonton Oilers. In theory, have more inconsistency between the pipes with Mike Smith and Mikko Koskinen. However, they may have the most dangerous top line in hockey but lack scoring depth. Their depth this year does seem to be stronger than in past years, I expect Edmonton to slowly climb up in the projected final standings in the coming weeks.
Who is Underrated?
Based on my NHL point total projections, in the Eastern conference, I could see the Florida Panthers, Buffalo Sabres, Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Philadelphia Flyers giving the New York Islanders and the Montreal Canadiens a run for their money in the wild card race. Other than that, I like the projections in the East.
In the Atlantic division, the Buffalo Sabres sit in first place. While my NHL point total projections have Buffalo missing the playoffs, their current 8-1-1 record cannot be ignored. In a star-studded division, only time will tell if they can keep their current pace up as the season progresses.
In the Metropolitan Division, the Columbus Blue Jackets, Philadelphia Flyers, and New York Islanders seem to be in the mix for third place behind the Washington Capitals and Carolina Hurricanes. These teams need to play more consistent hockey to climb the projected rankings, but all have the potential to prove the model wrong.
In the Western Conference, specifically the Central division, the streaking hot Colorado Avalanche has projected a sixth-place finish. That is just too low for a loaded Avalanche team. Expect them to climb the division and conference standings.
The Pacific division is interesting and should be tight all season. The Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks, and Arizona Coyotes are playing excellent hockey right now. Any of those teams could take a playoff spot(s), especially since the point totals for the Winnipeg Jets, Calgary Flames, and the San Jose Sharks seem to be too high.
Who is Overrated?
Personally, it does not seem like the Eastern conference has any overrated clubs in these projections, they pretty much align with current standings. The NHL point total projections seem to show this as the dominant conference.
The Western conference is a different story. In the Central division, the Nashville Predators are projected to win the West but have already suffered losses to Arizona, LA, and Detroit on the year. Who knows what will happen with the Predators between now and April, they are a contender in the West, but it is just too early to pick them as the favorite.
The Winnipeg Jets are undoubtedly overrated in these projections. With almost no defensive depth, and already accruing a -6 goal differential and a 5-6 record, fourth place in the Central is just too high for the Jets.
In the Pacific division, the Calgary Flames are not the same team as last year, their 5-5-1 record shows that. They currently sit in sixth place in the Pacific division with eleven games played. Their eleven points are tied with Arizona who have three games in hand and should easily climb up the standings.
The LA Kings have two games in hand and could overtake the Flames with two wins, and the San Jose Sharks (who beat the Flames on 10/13) have two games in hand and could tie the Flames at eleven points. If the Sharks and Kings win their next two, Calgary will be dead last in the Pacific.
Next. Where Is The Concern Level For Juuse Saros. dark
Overall the first set of standings projections from the NHL prediction model look solid.