NHL Betting Picks, Predictions, Probability and Analysis for Tuesday Slate

It has been two weeks since kicking off our, twice weekly, NHL betting picks. Last Thursday, we went 6-2-1, putting last week’s picks at 14-4-1.

All NHL picks that follow include win probability, based off 10,000 simulations calculated by my NHL Prediction Model, matchup analysis and game predictions. Today’s NHL picks will also feature a pick recap, best bets and projected over/under totals.

The Prediction Model’s NHL betting picks are now 97-37-11 on the year. This week’s NHL picks should be the best yet. We have a lot of interesting matchups, including the Nashville Predators and Chicago Blackhawks, for Tuesday night’s slate of games.

I have been posting all of the model’s NHL betting picks via twitter, daily, for the past four weeks. Each pick I make is posted, in the morning prior to the games, on my NHL Picks twitter page, Twitter.com/picks_ice check it out for daily predictions and parlays. Let’s get to it!

Additionally, I post my daily betting picks on Predlines each Monday or Tuesday. Then I post another wave of NHL betting picks, on Predlines, either Thursday or Friday of the same week.

Check out our last round of NHL picks from Thursday, October 24th. Rankings and betting trends via actionnetwork.com) Percent chance to win based off my NHL Prediction Model.

Index:

1. San Jose @ Boston
2. Calgary @ Carolina
3. Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh
4. Washington @ Toronto
5. Tampa Bay @ New York Rangers
6. Edmonton @ Detroit
7. Chicago @ Nashville
8. Minnesota @ Dallas
9. Winnipeg @ Anaheim
10. Over/Under Picks
11. Pick Recap
12. Best Bets

NHL Betting Picks, #1

SJS @ BOS 7 PM ET

The first matchup today features the Boston Bruins (8-1-2) and their guest, the San Jose Sharks (4-7-1). Head-to-head the Bruins are 3-0 in their last three games against the San Jose Sharks and 7-3 in their last ten.

In the Standings:

The Bruins sit in second place in the Atlantic Division, two points behind Buffalo with two games in hand.

The Sharks are in seventh place in the Pacific Division only ahead of the LA Kings.

Home Rankings: BOS

Home Offense:

Goals: 13th

PP: 1st

Home Defense:

Goals: 3rd

PK: 2nd

Road Rankings: SJS

Road Offense:

Goals: 21st

PP: 6th

Road Defense:

Goals: 23rd

PK: 5th

Advantage: Boston

Boston Last 3 Games (3-0)

W NYR

W STL

W TOR

San Jose Last 3 Games (1-2)

L OTT

L TOR

W MTL

Trends for Boston:

4-1 in their last five at home. The total has hit the under in the last four out of five vs the Sharks.

Trends for San Jose:

1-4 in their last five games. 0-6 in their last six vs Boston.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives Boston a  solid 62.20% chance to win. Statistically, Boston dominates San Jose in every category. Additionally, San Jose being 0-6 in their last six head-to-head contests with the Bruins is a tough stat to ignore. San Jose seems to stick around in games they should not, but I am taking the favorite.

Take the Boston Bruins -200

NHL Betting Picks, #2

CGY @ CAR 7 PM ET

In the second game today, we have the 6-5-2 Calgary Flames visiting the 7-3-1 Carolina Hurricanes. Head-to-head Calgary has won the last three meetings and are 6-4 in their last ten matchups with the Hurricanes.

In the Standings:

The Flames are tied for fourth in the Pacific Division, but are only two points out of second and hanging around. The Carolina Hurricanes are in third place in the Metropolitan Division, trailing the first-place Capitals by four points, but the Canes have two games in hand.

Home Rankings: CAR

Home Offense:

Goals: 8th

PP: 5th

Home Defense:

Goals: 5th

PK: 20th

Road Rankings: CGY

Road Offense:

Goals: 28th

PP 17th

Road Defense:

Goals: 17th

PK: 9th

Advantage: Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina Last 3 Games (1-2)

W CHI

L CBJ

L ANA

Calgary Last 3 Games (1-2)

L WPG

W FLA

L WSH

Trends for the Hurricanes:

4-1 in their last five at home. 10-3 vs the Western Conference in their last 13 games.

Trends for the Flames:

4-1 in their last five against the Hurricanes. 7-1 in their last eight Eastern Conference matchups. 9-1 against the Metro Division in their last ten meetings against that division.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives the Carolina Hurricanes the edge over Calgary at 58.60%. Statistically, Carolina has the advantage. As for trends, the Flames have the slight edge. However, I like the pick from the NHL Prediction Model for this contest. Hurricanes continue their recent dominance over the West.

Take the Carolina Hurricanes -135

NHL Betting Picks, #3

PHI @ PIT 7 PM ET

In the third game today, we have the Philadelphia Flyers (5-4-1) visiting the Pittsburgh Penguins (7-5) . Head-to-head the Flyers have won two of the last three meetings, but the Penguins are 5-3-2 in their last ten matchups with the Flyers.

In the Standings:

The Penguins are in fourth place in the Metro division with fourteen points. Division rival Philadelphia is in sixth with eleven points.

Home Rankings: PIT

Home Offense:

Goals: 26th

PP: 26th

Home Defense:

Goals: 8th

PK: 11th

Road Rankings: PHI

Road Offense:

Goals: 19th

PP: 16th

Road Defense:

Goals: 16th

PK: 15th

Advantage:

Offense- Flyers

Defense- Penguins

Penguins Last 3 Games (1-2)

W DAL

L TBL

L FLA

Flyers Last 3 Games (2-1)

L NYI

W CBJ

W CHI

Trends for the Penguins:

The total has gone under in four of their last five home games. They’re also 1-8 versus the Eastern Conference in their last nine conference games.

Trends for the Flyers:

They are 1-8 in their last nine road games. The over has hit in five of their last seven Eastern Cnference games. The total has gone over in four of their last six games on the season.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives the Pittsburgh Penguins the second highest percentage chance to win over Philadelphia at 60.40%. Statistically, the teams are fairly even. As for trends, the Flyers have the slight edge. However, I like the pick from the NHL Prediction Model with the Penguins at home.

Take the Penguins -160

NHL Betting Picks, #4

WSH @ TOR 7 PM ET

In the fourth game today, we have the heavyweight Capitals (8-2-3) visiting the Toronto Maple Leafs. Head-to-head Washington has won two of the last three meetings and are 7-3 in their last ten matchups with the Leafs.

In the Standings:

The Caps are currently in first place in the Metro Division with 19 points. The Maple Leafs are in fourth in the Atlantic Division with 14 points.

Home Rankings: TOR

Home Offense:

Goals: 10th

PP: 16th

Home Defense:

Goals: 29th

PK: 18th

Road Rankings: WSH

Road Offense:

Goals: 4th

PP: 7th

Road Defense:

Goals: 12th

PK: 7th

Advantage: Washington Capitals

Toronto Last 3 Games (1-2)

L MTL

W SJS

L BOS

Washington Last 3 Games (2-1)

W VAN

L EDM

W CGY

Trends for the Maple Leafs:

They are 1-4 against the Eastern Conference in their last five. The over has hit in seven of their last ten home games.

Trends for the Capitals:

The total has gone over in their last seven. 4-1 on the road in Toronto in the previous five meetings and 6-1-1 on road games this year.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives Toronto a very slight edge over Washington at 50.75%. Statistically, Washington has the clear advantage. As for trends, the Caps also dominate this. I am picking against the model. I like the Capitals who are simply the much better team on paper and statistically.

Take the Capitals +110

NHL Betting Picks, #5

TBL @ NYR 7:30 PM ET

In the fifth game today, we have the 5-3-2 Tampa Bay Lightning visiting the 3-5-1 New York Rangers. Head-to-head Tampa has won the last three meetings and are 6-2-2 in their last ten matchups with the Rangers.

In the Standings:

The Lightning are in fifth in the Atlantic but have three games in hand to the third and first place teams. The Rangers are in seventh in the Metro after struggling badly to start the season. However, they have the least amount of games played in this division and could catch up to the top quickly.

Home Rankings: NYR

Home Offense:

Goals: 14th

PP: 24th

Home Defense:

Goals: 23rd

PK: 22rd

Road Rankings: TBL

Road Offense:

Goals: 5th

PP: 11th

Road Defense:

Goals: 14th

PK: 29th

Advantage: Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning Last 3 Games (1-2)

L NSH

W PIT

L COL

Rangers Last 3 Games (1-2)

L BOS

W BUF

L ARI

Trends for the Lightning:

4-1 in their last five in New York. They are also 4-1 in their last five Eastern Conference games. They are 3-2 in road games this season.

Trends for the Rangers:

They are 1-4 at home vs Tampa. 2-3 at home this season.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives the Lightning  an edge over New York at 58.55%. Statistically, Tampa has the advantage. As for trends, Tampa also has an advantage. I like the pick from the NHL Prediction Model in this matchup. Tampa Bay gets back on track.

Take the Lightning -220

NHL Betting Picks, #7

CHI @ NSH 8 PM ET

In the seventh game today, we have the Chicago Blackhawks (3-5-2) visiting the 7-3-1 Nashville Predators. Head-to-head Nashville has won two of the last three meetings and are 7-2-1 in their last ten matchups with Chicago. Emotions are always high when these two meet.

In the Standings:

The Predators have 15 points and trail only the Avalanche in the Central Division. The Blackhawks are sixth in the Central with eight points.

Home Rankings: NSH

Home Offense:

Goals: 3rd

PP: 15th

Home Defense:

Goals: 9th

PK: 26th

Road Rankings: CHI

Road Offense:

Goals: 29th

PP: 14th

Road Defense:

Goals: 26th

PK: 31st

Advantage: Nashville Predators

NSH Last 3 Games (3-0)

W TBL

W MIN

W ANA

CHI Last 3 Games (1-2)

W LAK

L CAR

L PHI

Trends for the Predators:

6-3 in their last nine games. 4-1 at home in their last five. 5-1 in their last five at home against Chicago.

Trends for the Blackhawks:

1-4 in their last five. 3-9 in the last 12 meetings with Nashville. 1-6 in their last seven road games this year.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives Nashville an advantage with a 59.20% chance to win. Statistically, Nashville has the advantage. As for trends, the Predators also claim the edge and have owned the series recently. I like the pick from the NHL Prediction Model for this contest. Nashville Predators win their fourth-straight.

Take the Predators -190

NHL Betting Picks, #8

MIN @ DAL 8:30 PM ET

In the eighth game today, we have the Minnesota Wild (4-7) visiting the Dallas Stars (4-8-1). Head-to-head Dallas has won the last three meetings and are 6-4 in their last ten matchups with the Wild.

In the Standings:

Dallas is only one point ahead of Minnesota for last place, while the Wild have two games in hand. A win for Minnesota would mean that Dallas would fall to the basement of the Central Division standings.

Home Rankings: DAL

Home Offense:

Goals: 31st

PP: 27th

Home Defense:

Goals: 5th

PK: 17th

Road Rankings: MIN

Road Offense:

Goals: 30th

PP: 26th

Road Defense:

Goals: 21st

PK: 13th

Advantage:

Offense- Minnesota

Defense- Dallas

Dallas Last 3 Games (2-1)

L PIT

W ANA

W OTT

Minnesota Last 3 Games (2-1)

W LAK

L NSH

W EDM

Trends for the Stars:

4-11 in their last fifteen. 1-4 against opponents from the Western Conference. 2-3 at home.

Trends for the Wild:

4-9 in their last thirteen. 1-5 in their last six vs Dallas. 1-8 in their last eight on the road. Won 3 of last 4 games this season.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives the Dallas Stars a slight edge over Minnesota at 53.20%. Statistically, these teams are not much different. As for trends, the Stars have the slight edge. However, I like the underdog, Minnesota Wild, to keep up their recent success and bury the Stars even further.

Take the Wild +130

NHL Betting Picks, #9

WPG @ ANA 10 PM ET

In the ninth game today, we have the 6-6 Winnipeg Jets visiting the 7-6 Anaheim Ducks. Head-to-head Winnipeg has won the last three meetings and are 7-2-1 in their last ten matchups with the Ducks.

In the Standings:

The Jets’ 12 points are good enough for fourth in the Central. The Ducks’ 14 points place them in fifth in the Pacific division.

Home Rankings: ANA

Home Offense:

Goals: 19th

PP: 28th

Home Defense:

Goals: 2nd

PK: 9th

Road Rankings: WGP

Road Offense:

Goals: 7th

PP: 19th

Road Defense:

Goals: 18th

PK: 27th

Advantage:

Offense: Jets

Defense: Anaheim

Anaheim Last 3 Games (1-2)

L VGK

W COL

L DAL

Winnipeg Last 3 Games (2-1)

W CGY

L LAK

W EDM

Trends for the Ducks:

4-1 at home. 1-4 in their last five. 4-1 as the favorite.

Trends for the Jets:

3-2 on the road. 4-2 vs the Western Conference. 2-4 in their last six.

Pick Analysis:

The NHL Prediction Model gives the Anaheim Ducks a 55.00% chance to win. Statistically, Anaheim has the defensive advantage. As for trends, Winnipeg has a slight edge. However, I like the Ducks defense at home.

Take the Ducks -110

Over/Under Predictions and Reasoning:

SJS@BOS

Total: 6

• SJS away record over-under: 4-3
• BOS home record over-under: 2-3
• Combined record over-under: 6-6
• Last three meetings over-under: 1-2

Pick: Under 6

WSH@TOR

Total: 6.5

• WSH away record over-under: 5-2
• TOR home record over-under: 4-3
• Combined record over-under: 9-5
• Last three meetings over-under: 2-1

Pick: Over 6.5

PHI@PIT

Total: 6.5

• PHI away record over-under: 2-3
• PIT home record over-under: 2-5
• Combined record over-under: 4-8
• Last three meetings over-under: 1-2

Pick: Under 6.5

CGY@CAR

Total: 6

• CGY away record over-under: 2-5
• CAR home record over-under: 3-2
• Combined record over-under: 5-7
• Last three meetings over-under: 1-2

Pick: Under 6

TBL@NYR

Total: 6.5

• TBL away record over-under: 4-2
• NYR home record over-under: 3-3
• Combined record over-under: 7-5
• Last three meetings over-under: 2-1

Picks: Over 6.5

EDM@DET

Total: 6

• EDM away record over-under: 2-4
• DET home record over-under: 2-2
• Combined record over-under: 4-6
• Last three meetings over-under: 1-2

Pick: Under 6

CHI@NSH

Total: 6

• CHI away record over-under: 1-1
• NSH home record over-under: 5-2
• Combined record over-under: 6-6
• Last three meetings over-under: 2-1

Pick: Over 6

MIN@DAL

Total: 5

• MIN away record over-under: 2-4-1
• DAL home record over-under: 0-6
• Combined record over-under: 2-10-1
• Last three meetings over-under: 0-3 (last five meetings 0-5)

Pick: Under 5

WPG@ANA

Total: 5.5

• WPG away record over-under: 2-3
• ANA home record over-under: 2-3
• Combined record over-under: 4-6
• Last three meetings over-under: 2-1

Pick: Under 5.5

NHL Betting Picks Recap: My Picks vs Model Picks

1. My Pick: Boston/ Model’s Pick: Boston
2. My Pick: Pittsburgh/ Model’s Pick: Pittsburgh
3. My Pick: Nashville/Model’s Pick: Nashville
4. My Pick: Carolina/ Model’s Pick: Carolina
5. My Pick: Tampa Bay/ Model’s Pick: Tampa Bay
6. My Pick: Anaheim/Model’s Pick: Anaheim
7. My Pick: Minnesota/Model’s Pick: Dallas
8. My Pick: Edmonton/Model’s Pick: Detroit
9. My Pick: Washington/ Model’s Pick: Toronto

Best Bets:

Low Risk Parlay:

• Boston -200, Pittsburgh -160, Nashville -190
• Risk 10 to win 27.20

Medium Risk Parlay:

• Boston -1.5 (+115), Carolina -135, TOR vs WSH OVER 6.5 (-130)
• Risk 10 to win 56.22

High Risk Parlay:

• Nashville -1.5 (+125), Tampa -1.5 (+120), Minnesota +130
• Risk 10 to win 103.85