Nashville Predators: Three Keys to Getting Critical Win Over Oilers
After a day of rest at home, the Nashville Predators are back in action tonight, playing host to the Edmonton Oilers.
Going into tonight’s contest, the two teams have a nearly identical record, which will bring an intense playoff level atmosphere to the ice tonight. Despite being a single point behind Edmonton in the standings, the Predators are in a completely different situation than their opponent on Thursday night.
The Predators currently occupy the first of two wild card spots in the Western Conference, one point ahead of Dallas, but seven points behind St. Louis who holds third place in the Central Division.
Nashville is also four points ahead of Vegas to stay in the current playoff field. According to MoneyPuck.com, the playoff odds sit at 94.9 percent for the Predators as they look to yet again go into familiar postseason territory for an eighth-straight season.
It only gets hard from here
The Predators have nine games left including tonight’s against the Oilers. Of the nine, seven are against playoff teams.
The Oilers are the lowest in the standings out of the playoff teams on the Preds remaining schedule, making tonight a must-win for Nashville. The rest of the season includes two games against Calgary, and one against Colorado, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Chicago and Arizona.
Although things appear to be in the Predators’ favor in terms of qualifying for the playoffs, there is a very small margin for error, and they need all the points they can get.
A win over a rising Edmonton team will make a difference in making the playoffs, and/or who the Predators draw in the first round of the playoffs, which is likely going to be either the Colorado Avalanche or the Calgary Flames.
Three Keys to Nashville Predators vs. Edmonton
- Defensive coverage
- Shots on net, and plenty of them
- Minimal amount of penalties
Strength in the Defensive Zone
The first key to beating the Edmonton Oilers is shutting down their top line with strong defensive coverage.
The Predators have been a good team on defense this season, averaging 23.66 shots against per game, which puts them in the top third in shots against among teams this season.
According to moneypuck.com, when it comes to Goals Against per-60, the Predators have the seventh-lowest in the NHL at 2.21 GA per game. Edmonton has been a middle of the road team this season in terms of Goals For Per Game, but their top line has excelled tremendously, with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl being first and third in the NHL in points, with 108 and 102 points, respectively.
Shutting this superstar duo down is going to be the biggest priority for the Predators, but this year, the team has proven that they have the ability to play a full 60 minutes of defensive minded play.
McDavid and Draisaitl thrive when the ice is open, and there is space to get creative and showcase speed, so taking away that space with tight coverage in the defensive zone and aggressive play in the neutral zone, the Oilers top forwards will be kept in check.
That tight coverage will be the biggest key to coming away with the two points that the Predators desperately need.
Shots, Shots, Shots
Edmonton has had goaltending issues all season, coming from both of their NHL netminders.
The Oilers 2.62 goals against per game is the 13th-worst in the league, but their goaltenders save percentages are .903 (Mike Smith) and .902 (Mikko Koskinen), which puts them at 38th and 40th among NHL goalies with more than 20 games played this season.
However, Smith has been good in his last five starts, going 4-1-0 with a 2.60 GAA and a .918 save percentage, which means he is bound to have a poor performance soon. This is why piling up the shots on goal is essential to success on Thursday night.
The Oilers have dropped their recent two games, letting up five goals against Minnesota, and dropping a 2-1 shootout result versus Colorado, so the goaltending could really go either way.
Both of those games were played by goaltender Mikko Koskinen who has let up five goals in two of his last five outings.
Whichever of the two netminders gets the nod, the Predators game plan needs to stay consistent, and that is to put plenty of pucks on net against the mediocre goaltending Edmonton has.
Stay Out Of The Box
The final key to beating Edmonton is to stay out of the penalty box. The Preds remain the highest penalized team, with over 80 penalty minutes more than the second place Minnesota Wild.
The Oilers have the third-best powerplay in the NHL,while the Predators average over four penalties per game, which in this case, equates to roughly one Oilers powerplay goal.
The Predators can avoid that likely disadvantage by avoiding lazy penalties, which could keep the penalty total down to one or two all game, minimizing the opportunity for Edmonton’s powerplay to get to work.
If the Predators take a few penalties early, there could become a hole that is too deep to climb out of, so it is imperative that the team plays hard but smart against the lethal offense of the Edmonton Oilers.
Prediction
The Nashville Predators haven’t beaten the Oilers this season, losing 5-2 in November and 3-2 in a shootout in January, but I think that changes tonight.
With so much on the line for the Predators against a team that is beatable, and close to the Preds in the standings, they’ll squeak by with a 4-2 win. We’ll call the fourth goal being an empty netter, in a game where special teams and discipline are put to the test.