Three Different Outcomes for Juuse Saros’ Future with Nashville Predators
Saros Gets Long-term Contract with the Nashville Predators
This is the outcome I would assume the vast majority of Predators fans are hoping for. That Saros follows along in the glorious footstep of Pekka Rinne, with the major caveat being he wins the ultimate prize of a Stanley Cup for Nashville.
Look, it may be two full seasons down the road, but the Predators front office should already be preparing for every possible scenario and how to make the numbers work for eventually re-signing Saros to a much more expensive deal than his current $5 million cap hit.
For comparison, here is a look at the highest paid goaltenders in the NHL right now:
Highest Cap Hits Among Goaltenders (2023-24)
1. Carey Price (MTL)- $10.5M
2. Sergei Bobrovsky (FLA)- $10M
3. Andrei Vasilevskiy (TB)- $9.5M
4. John Gibson (ANA)- $6.4M
5. Matt Murray (TOR)- $6.25M
T-17th: Juuse Saros (NSH)- $5M
Saros currently has the same cap hit as Thatcher Demko, Linus Ullmark, Jack Campbell, Cal Petersen and Robin Lehner. All quality goaltenders, but you can make a fair argument that Saros leads the crop of goaltenders, with the exception of Ullmark if you have recency bias.
The point is, Saros is going to demand a huge pay increase and will at the very least creep up there ahead of Gibson’s $6.4 million and come close to Andrei Vasilevskiy money.
The market will dictate this, and based off how Saros performs in 2023-24, the Predators need to be prepared to free up a lot of money if they want Saros to follow the same storybook path that Rinne had with Nashville.
This brings me to 2024 and the nine unrestricted free agents that will hit the market, if not re-signed before then. Most notably, as it pertains to Saros’ future, it’s his backup Kevin Lankinen. A backup who is good enough to be a primary starter on a lot of teams, but Nashville worked their magic to sign him to another one-year deal this past offseason.
If you run it back one more year with this duo and Saros again performs at a high level that’s worthy of Vezina Trophy talk, then Lankinen is let go and Saros gets somewhere between $8M and $9M, and maybe more based on the market trend.
A lot of players will have to be let go next offseason if the Predators are going to retain Saros past 2025-26. I don’t think you want to go into Saros’ final year of his contract without being re-signed, that is unless you have another plan in mind.
Saros is Traded Sometime Before the Offseason of 2025
This idea would’ve gotten you checked out for insanity just a couple years ago, but the closer that current contract gets to expiring, the more you have to consider this option. And it all really comes down to just how legit the Predators become in competing deep into the playoffs. Not just making it to the first round, but actually winning series and being among the best in the Western Conference.
Saros was already the subject of trade rumors this past trade deadline, although that was quickly squashed. At least for now.
It’s fair to say, unless you’re blissfully biased, that the Predators are a long ways away from being in the upper echelon of NHL teams. They’re in the mucky middle, but Trotz and his new Head Coach Andrew Brunette are vowing to change that outlook fast.
However, if this process stumbles along and takes longer than the front office would like, then Saros becomes a hot commodity that can stockpile you with young talent, draft picks and prospects to really take a rebuild seriously.
This outcome becomes very much a real possibility if the Predators end up missing the playoffs for a second year in a row, and furthermore, are well out of playoff contention at the 2024 trade deadline.
Predators 2023 Offseason. Too Much or Not Enough?. light
Think about how many contending teams will be foaming at the mouth to get Saros for one more year at $5M and also get him for their playoff run in 2024?
Saros’ trade value probably goes down a bit in his final season of his contract in 2024-25 because some teams simply won’t feel great or be able to negotiate for Saros when he hits unrestricted free agency.
The peak time to trade Saros will be 2024 trade deadline if you’re actually going to do this. Pay attention to where the Predators are at in the standings. If they’re contending and comfortably in a playoff spot, my assumption is Saros will be a major reason why.
Predators Keep Saros for Two More Years, Roll the Dice in Free Agency
This is a risky proposition the Nashville Predators could end up going down. Keeping Saros throughout the two years remaining on his current deal, because having him always gives you a chance to be a surprise team that gets hot at the right time.
The scenario of letting Saros’ deal run through its entirety and not trading him means that you could fail miserably in retaining him in the offseason of 2025. But if you trade him before that time, then the Predators are signaling that the rebuild is going to take a bit longer.
That brings us to Yaroslav Askarov, the prized goalie prospect in the Nashville Predators system who really will dictate what happens with Saros. Furthermore, how much improvement will Askarov show in his second full season with the Milwaukee Admirals in the AHL?
As long as Askarov has a solid second AHL season, then he will get full-time backup duty in 2024-25. However, just like Saros, Askarov could become trade bait if the front office decides to put all of their cards on keeping Saros for the long-term future.
One year of backup duty for Askarov behind Saros would be in 2024-25. Is that enough NHL playing time to feel fully confident in letting go of Saros and giving the keys to Askarov? I’m not so sure about that.
It is a fair possibility that the Nashville Predators remain all in on trying to chase a Stanley Cup with Saros for two more years and then just live with the consequences when that time comes.
Again, that is a major risk while also understanding that the roster around Saros isn’t of a Stanley Cup caliber. But ultimately it’s a win now league, and the Predators are going to try to win now while they still have Saros at a bargain price for two more years.
Trending. Four Players with Most to Gain in Predators Preseason. light
Final Verdict and Predicting Saros’ Outcome with Predators
Out of all three scenarios just mentioned, my gut tells me the organization is going to show loyalty to Saros and do everything they can to keep him for years to comes, just like they did with Rinne. This means Askarov likely gets traded, but not necessarily right away. It could take a season or two of being Saros’ backup before that happens.
There is no guarantee that Askarov lives up to what many scouts believe he’ll be, whereas we know what we have in Saros and he’s entering his prime at age 28.
As of now, there is only one current Predators player that will be a UFA in 2025 and that’s Gustav Nyquist. Cody Glass and Luke Evangelista will be RFAs.
I can see Askarov being Saros’ backup for two seasons, and judging by how he performs in backup duty, that will dictate if he becomes a valuable trade commodity. Bottom line, I’m trading Askarov before I trade Saros.