Luke Schenn Odd Man Out in a Fully Healthy Nashville Predators Defense
First Pairing: Roman Josi – Dante Fabbro
There is hardly time needed to spend analyzing why Roman Josi should be on the first pairing. He is the best player on the Predators and one of the best defensemen in the league, so of course he will remain where he is and has always been.
Pretty much everything after Josi is a question mark, although as far as this pairing goes, it should not be much of one. Simply put, Fabbro this season is playing the most complete and disciplined hockey of his six-year NHL career.
In the past few seasons, we have heard nonstop about how Fabbro had not lived up to expectations, and could be prime trade bait on a team that is making many changes. Probably the biggest criticism of Fabbro over the years has been his lapses, and how all of his turnovers and misplays would be super critical and end up as goals against.
This year, the costly gaffes have not happened very much, if at all. Fabbro has been an extremely steady defensive presence, effectively neutralizing opposing offense and even making some plays that jump out as impressive efforts to keep the puck out of the net.
Offense has not been his strong-suit since he has been on the Predators, but he has been far from a slouch in that regard this year. He already has two goals and three assists on the year, and crazily enough, his five points are just six fewer than he had in 79 games last year.
What is crazy that people forget that he was paired with Josi and his historic 96 points in 2021-22, and this year Fabbro is proving that he just might have had something to do with it. He is a very solid player and maybe more, and he has absolutely earned his spot on the top pairing until he gives Brunette a reason to take it away from him.
Instead of speculating about trade scenarios, it might be more appropriate to talk about a potential multi-year extension for the 25-year-old defensemen. Call it Fabbro being a late bloomer, or whatever you will, but he is finally starting to put it all together and deserves a major role on the Predators.
Second Pairing: Ryan McDonagh – Alexandre Carrier
Besides Josi being on the first pairing, McDonagh being on the second pairing is another one of those no brainers for Brunette. In terms of proven player caliber, he is easily the second-best defenseman on this team after Josi, and a guy like him brings that Stanley Cup pedigree that the young Predators desperately need.
And just in itself, a pure stay at home defenseman like McDonagh is needed for this team right now with how badly their penalty kill has struggled. There can be absolutely zero doubt that he will be back on this pairing when he is healthy, and it looks like it will be very soon.
But after McDonagh is where things get murky. You would have to think this is a spot Schenn could take, but Carrier staying here would be what is best for this team’s chances of winning.
Just from a pure hypothetical standpoint, both of these players complement each other very well, since Carrier has the offensive upside to his game that works with someone like McDonagh. Carrier too has been defensively sound this year, and it is tough to justify replacing his all-around game with an older and slower Schenn.
Carrier is a top-10 defensemen in terms of blocked shots with 41 on the season, or 8.78 per 60 minutes.
But according to MoneyPuck, this pairing of McDonagh and Carrier has been very solid when they have played together. Of all the ones that have played in the NHL this year, they are ninth in the entire league in Expected Goals %, and third overall of pairings that have played 100 or more minutes.
And of those that have played 100 plus minutes, they are 10th in Expected Goals For Per 60 minutes, and sixth in Expected Goals Against Per 60 minutes. If we are talking about a pairing that can impact the game on both ends of the ice, this is it right here.
The old saying goes “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” and this pairing absolutely needs to be put back together and not broken up until they show that it is indeed, broke.
Third Pairing: Jeremy Lauzon – Tyson Barrie
There is hardly anything that is definite on defense besides Josi and McDonagh in their spots, but this pairing is definitely one that is most up in the air. I think the one that we can all but pencil in here is Lauzon, since he is a left-handed defenseman, and both Barrie and Schenn are right-handed.
And it is not like that is the only reason Lauzon should stay in the lineup. He has not been anything amazing, but he has been solid and overall done pretty well to neutralize offense. That is about what you expect from your third pairing defenseman, so there is no reason why his spot should be revoked.
As for Barrie, it is another situation where just on paper, it makes sense to keep him on a pairing with Lauzon due to the nature of his game. Barrie is a primarily offensive defenseman, but he has done a reasonable job in his own end as well this year, and a guy like him who can skate effectively at all areas of the ice is good to have alongside Lauzon, who is a purely physical player.
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While they have not been as good as McDonagh and Carrier, MoneyPuck suggests that they too have played well for a third pairing. Of those that have played 100 or more minutes, they are 24th in Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes, and being top-30 in that regard is not bad at all for their role on the team.
Offensively, they have been nothing special, but that is ok because once again, their role on the team does not demand much of an offensive presence. Plus, you cannot look at me or anyone with a straight face and say that Schenn over Barrie would boost their offensive output in the slightest.
If the Predators are in a game in which they really want to up their physical presence and be more of a pest, I could see Schenn coming in for Barrie from time to time. And maybe Brunette will make that switch fairly often at first when Schenn returns just to see what he has in him, which you could hardly fault him for.
But Barrie being paired with Lauzon offers much more upside when you account for both ends of the ice, so for the sake of making definite decisions, Barrie should remain on the third pairing.
Odd man out: Luke Schenn
I cannot finish this article without touching on Schenn in more capacity, due to the contract he signed with the Predators in the offseason. It almost seems criminal to leave him out of the lineup when he is making $2.75M AAV for the next three years, but unfortunately, it is hard to put him back given how the other pairings have performed.
Schenn of course offers the Stanley Cup pedigree and is one of those tougher guys who can make his team menace to play against, but it is hard to imagine how he could upgrade this team on the ice right now. It is one of those situations where the Predators may have to all but admit that they made an unnecessary offseason signing, and scratch him accordingly.
Now, GM Barry Trotz may have signed him to give the team another trusted voice and seventh defenseman, which even for a team with lots of cap space, is a lot of money to have given him. But that just might have been the plan, because even when the deal was signed, it was hard find a spot in the lineup where he would belong night in and night out.
The signing seems like a waste of money, especially because he has zero trade value at this point, but I highly doubt that Schenn is going to end up as a total nothing. Once again, there are likely going to be games when he comes in the lineup depending on who the Predators are playing on a given night, since at times they will need to be especially physical to take their opponents off of their game.
Not only that, but Carrier and Barrie are both unrestricted free agents at the end of the season, and with the logjam on defense, it is doubtful that both re-sign. Even if Schenn does not do much this year, he will likely see much more time next year, so they will surely get something out of him.
The signing still seems baffling and I was not in favor of it when it happened, but Trotz and Brunette clearly see Schenn as having a place on this team, and he will moving forward. A mentor can be valuable, and the Predators can ultimately afford this kind of overpay when their contending window is not now.