The beginning of 2025 NHL free agency begins on July 1, and as we get closer to that date, the noise is probably only going to get louder surrounding Jonathan Marchessault and the Nashville Predators.
Marchessault is making news for possibly being ready to move on after just one year with the Predators. Going through a nightmare season the Predators just went through, it shouldn't come as a surprise that Marchessault might be ready to jump ship after just one year of his five-year deal he signed in free agency last offseason.
There are some legs to this trade speculation. Frank Seralli's has Marchessault at No.5 on his top trade targets list, citing that the Predators need to get younger and shed at least one veteran contract. So in that case, yes trading Marchessault seems like an optimal way to do that, but a few conditions need to be met for me to be totally on board with this.
Frank Seravalli on Jonathan Marchessault being open to moving on from the Nashville Predators:
— /r/Habs (@HabsOnReddit) May 28, 2025
“I think in a perfect world, he would love to go to the Montreal Canadiens & go home. I don’t know how open they are to that, given the term on his deal. But you can see him helping a… pic.twitter.com/lGrN9ukRFb
Even if both sides want a trade, it won't be easy to find the right match
First off, it's becoming more clear that this will not be an easy trade to pull off even if both sides want to part ways. Marchessault has the 15-team no trade list and holds the cards to dictate where he wants to truly go. The Montreal Canadiens look like the frontrunners as Marchessault would be the "hometown" hero.
This can also be a great trade partner for the Predators to get what they should want in return, which is a young up-and-coming player who can bring offense for the long-term future. And I really don't see much on the Canadiens that they would be realistically willing to give up that fits the Predators' needs.
Furthermore, the Canadiens don't have much projected cap space to take on Marchessault's $5.5 million AAV, meaning the Predators are going to be expected to retain salary. That's just not in the team's best interests to start retaining salaries again after just one year. So even though the storyline would be great for Marchessault to go home to Montreal, it doesn't really match up for me.
Most teams who show interest in Marchessault are going to expect the Predators to retain salary to take on a 34-year-old veteran who still has four years left and needs a bounce back year. Ultimately I don't expect General Manager Barry Trotz to give up on the Marchessault experiment that fast unless he can dump all of his salary and use that to go after another big time free agent Trotz wants.
Unlike the Canadiens with only approximately $6.1 million of projected cap space, the Predators are sitting in a much better position with approximately $17.3 million in projected cap space. So yes, in theory they can afford to retain some salary on Marchessault to push a trade over the finish line, but I just don't think they should be that desperate to move him unless the player is completely fed up and is going to be a major distraction.
Trotz has to be careful to not act out of desperation and get burned yet again
The only way I'm feeling good about Marchessault being traded is if all of his cap hit is lifted and the Predators get something in their arsenal for their long-term future. Someone that will bring speed and youth to the organization and can be a starter in 2025-26.
Just because you'd like to move on from Marchessault doesn't mean you just get reckless and operate out of desperation mode. That's how you get burned in trades. Trotz has to be smart with how he handles this, test the interest in Marchessault, and most importantly find out just how much Marchessault wants out.
If you dump Marchessault and don't get a starter in return, the Predators lineup really looks like another top-5 lottery team next season as well. That might not be necessarily a bad thing if we've come to grips with reality that this team is entering the depths of a rebuild, but something tells me Trotz doesn't feel that way.
No Marchessault in the 2025-26 lineup means not only do you have weak depth at center, but you also have very little depth on the wings. Luke Evangelista probably becomes your top line winger with Filip Forsberg and Ryan O'Reilly, and the Predators will have to go shopping for another winger in free agency to fill the void Marchessault leaves behind.
I'm sure behind closed doors conversations are being had about not only if the Predators can find the perfect trade partner for Marchessault, but also if they can keep Marchessault here and recapture some of that elite level of play the former Conn Smythe winner showed with the Vegas Golden Knights.
A lot of moving parts with this trade speculation that might end up lingering past the July 1 opening of free agency. However, if they manage to shed most of Marchessault's cap hit and they get a young starter in return that brings offense and speed to the organization, then I'll be pretty content with the trade.