Nashville Predators General Manager Barry Trotz is in a unique and tricky situation with how to navigate the rest of the 2024-25 season. Things haven't gone anywhere near according to plan after going on spending spree in 2024 free agency.
Making trades and moving away from aging players that have just a year or two left on their current deals is going to be on the table for Trotz, and yes that includes Ryan O'Reilly.
O'Reilly is the fully example of a leader on and off the ice that you want for your franchise. Losing him would be a tough blow to the Predators, but sometimes you have to think long-term future of the franchise. And O'Reilly still has a lot of trade value for playoff caliber teams, which unfortunately the Predators are not currently.
The caveat to possibly trading away O'Reilly is it would mean committing to what could be a lengthy rebuild. You don't trade away a guy like O'Reilly if you're trying to stay playoff relevant and Stanley Cup caliber into next season.
Trading away "The Factor" wouldn't be easy, but maybe necessary in the long-term outlook
You can't just trade away players that you no longer want, because usually you don't want them because they're underperforming which means their trade value is low. That's not the case for O'Reilly. Sure, he has taken a dip in production just like the entire Predators team has, but he's still a very desirable player on the open market.
It's time for the Predators to explore O'Reilly's trade value. He only has two more years left after this one on his current deal, with the contract not being astronomical by any means at $4.5 million AAV.
Trotz's dilemma is he can't go full-on rebuild anyway. He committed to Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei for the foreseeable future. Stamkos and Marchessault have "No Movement Clauses", so they will almost certainly be around for the next few years unless they approve to be traded.
However, to get the ball rolling on a partial rebuild for the purpose of getting younger and faster, O'Reilly is a big first step that is very realistic. But I'm just not sure that Trotz is ready to take that leap and give up on the veteran core that will be around, which isn't just Stamkos and Marchessault, but also includes longtime Predators Roman Josi, Filip Forsberg, and building around franchise goalie Juuse Saros who begins his eight-year contract in 2025-26.
Trotz I would think wants to try to run it back in 2025-26 and walk and chew gum at the same time. What I mean by that is, revamp the roster by getting younger and moving on from some aging veterans that you can, while also commiting to the younger core of the roster to get more playing time.
O'Reilly's trade value: Get younger, faster and open up playing time for other Preds forwards
Trading away O'Reilly, who is no longer a top line center caliber player for a playoff contending team, is a bold and difficult step, but maybe a necessary one with how this season has went.
Now doing so would undoubtedly mean waving the white flag on the 2024-25 season, which quite frankly we're probably already at that point with their playoff odds being at 7.4 percent according to MoneyPuck and needing an even bigger miracle run than they pulled off last season with an 18-game point streak to make the playoffs.
What would the Predators need to get in return of dealing out O'Reilly in a trade? Well, Trotz would definitely need to be a tough negotiator and not just give O'Reilly away. This isn't a desperate situation where you move on from a disgruntled player for nothing just to get him out of town.
If the trade offers don't live up to what O'Reilly is worth, then you simply move on from the idea. However, if a team comes along that gives you something really solid that can boost your long-term outlook, you absolutely take it and say "best wishes in your future endeavors" to Ryan O'Reilly.
In other words, all bets are off for me on trading O'Reilly away unless the offers are significant and fit exactly what Trotz wants. We don't have to be reckless or desperate when looking at trade offers for O'Reilly. Worst case scenario you keep O'Reilly around, which isn't the worst thing that could happen.
There isn't much out there in terms of concrete evidence that Trotz is even entertaining the notion of trading away O'Reilly, but I would suspect he gets a lot of inquiries in the coming weeks. The Maple Leafs have been linked as a good fit for O'Reilly in a reuniting of sorts.
Really any team out there who is high playoff aspirations, but feels thin in the depth department for making a deep playoff run would be interested in O'Reilly.
My price for O'Reilly, otherwise I say keep him, is a first or at least second-round pick and an impact future prospect that plays primary center. That is the overwhelming need for the Predators is to find another promising center that is young but that can also be NHL-ready right now.
If the price is right, Trotz should trade away O'Reilly as great as he is for the organization. He's your best realistic trade asset, with the more realistic but lower value trade assets being Gustav Nyquist and Colton Sissons. One of these three will get traded before 2025 trade deadline to begin the process of some sort of rebuild to get younger.
I don't see a trade happening before the roster freeze from December 20 to December 27. The Predators play three more games before that freeze happens. If they somehow build a long win streak coming out of the roster freeze, then Trotz will probably abandon doing something bold like trading away a core veteran like O'Reilly.