The Nashville Predators haven't been this far out of a playoff spot in quite some time, and landing an elite top-5 draft pick is really all the fans have to cling onto at this current juncture.
While the Predatos aren't formally eliminated from playoff contention, they're as good as dead. They're 18 points behind the wildcard spot, and I can't honestly remember them ever being this far out. Usually they sneak in through the backdoor of the playoffs at worst, or at least clinch a spot with a week left in the regular season.
The full attention is now turned towards the 2025 NHL Entry Draft and where the Predators will fall in the draft lottery. As of March 21, the Predators have the third-highest odds of landing the top overall pick, something the franchise has never experienced.
The conspiracy theorists will have to see it to actually believe that the Predators would win the lottery over the Chicago Blackhawks, who currently have the second-highest odds at 13.5 percent. Not much higher than the Predators at 11.5 percent, with the San Jose Sharks have the highest odds at 25.5 percent.
This draft class looks to be top heavy like many draft classes tend to be. If you're not aware, drafting in the NHL is nowhere near an exact science and you really need to be picking in the top-5, or at least top-10, to really bank on landing a generational prospect. Of course there are always gems sprinkled throughout the draft.
Before I get into my dream pick for the Predators to land, along with some other fine choices, let's take a look at the previous four drafts and how some of those top-5 picks are doing compared to later in those drafts.
The 2024 draft is too recent to really know for sure how that draft class will turn out, but of course Macklin Celebrini looks like the real deal as he was taken No.1 overall by the Sharks and is already close to being a point-per-game player. Only two other players from the first round of 2024 have made their NHL debut yet. Not out of the ordinary. It takes patience for prospects to make it to the NHL, even the first rounders.
The 2023 draft class was extraordinarily deep and at the time it was thought that Barry Trotz was going to try to trade up into the top-10 to take one of the heavy hitters. I really wanted Matvei Michkov, but it never materialized.
Even with that deep draft class, only players from the top-13 picks have made their impacts felts on the NHL level so far. However, five of the top seven picks are already making massive impacts for their NHL clubs, led by Connor Bedard but also Leo Carlsson, Adam Fantilli, Will Smith and Zach Benson.
The 2022 draft class is starting to really bear its fruits and showcase if teams made the right picks or not. Still very early on these prospects' development as well, but we have a better measurement at least.
The top-5 picks from 2022 are a mixed bag, with the top overall pick of Juraj Slafkovsky looking like a home run selection, but then you find some guys are solid, but haven't hit that elite status yet of being selected in the top-5.
The Predators chose Joakim Kemell in the first round of 2022, and the jury is still very much out on if that was a good pick or not. The skillset is there to eventually be a dynamic offensive producer, but 2025-26 should be when we first get an extended look at Kemell in the NHL.
All of this is to set the table that even picking in the top-5 isn't a foregone conclusion that you'll make the right choice, and even more so, you're going to have to probably be patient until that draft choice makes any sort of major impact on the NHL level. The NHL is so much different than NFL and NBA in this regard. It's a long journey for most, with the exception of the rare breeds like Bedard and Celebrini.
Dream Pick for the Nashville Predators in 2025 if they land at #1
For what it's worth, I ran the lottery simulator on Tankathon five times, and twice the Predators got the fourth pick and twice got the fifth pick. They won the draft lottery the other time.
Let's first look at if the Predators win the draft lottery. First off, if you're worried about the Predators winning too much and ruining their lottery odds by moving up in the standings, their odds drop from 11.5 percent to 9.5 percent if they finish ahead of the next team up in the Buffalo Sabres.
The Race to Tank for the NHL Draft Lottery
1. San Jose Sharks, 25.5%, 45PTS
The Sharks have the best odds to land the top pick two years in a row. They chose 4th overall in 2023.
2. Chicago Blackhawks, 13.5%, 49PTS
The Blackhawks won the lottery in 2023 and chose Connor Bedard. They picked 2nd overall in 2024.
3. Nashville Predators, 11.5%, 58PTS
The Predators have never selected No.1 overall in their 26-year history. They chose David Legwand with the 2nd overall pick in 1998 as an expansion team.
4. Buffalo Sabres, 9.5%, 60PTS
The Sabres last picked No.1 overall in 2021 by selecting Owen Power. Don't count them out to move below the Predators and increase their lottery odds.
5. Philadelphia Flyers, 8.5%, 64PTS
The Flyers are a major disappointment just like the Predators. In 2018, the Flyers screwed up their 2nd overall pick by taking Nolan Patrick.
The Predators could win a few games down the stretch and risk moving above the Sabres and Flyers and lowering their lottery odds from 11.5 percent to 8.5 percent. Again, in reality tanking isn't as cut and dry as some make it out to be.
So let's say the Predators win the lottery and have the top overall pick. The choice for me is Michael Misa. The Predators have chased that elusive elite center prospect for their entire existence, and if you land the No.1 overall pick, Misa is your guy.
Sportsnet actually has defenseman Matthew Schaeffer out of the OHL as their projected No.1 overall pick. It would be a tough choice for Trotz to make here. Does he value a defenseman more than a center? I want Misa, but it wouldn't surprise me on bit if Trotz went Schaeffer and values a defenseman more.
After all, Roman Josi is unfortunately on the downturn and we've seen the rest of the defenseman room and it offers little upside for the long-term future, with the exception of Tanner Molendyk waiting in the prospect ranks.
Defenseman or Center for the Nashville Predators?
My case for Misa is without question due to my belief that a need for a potential breakout center is higher than that of a defenseman for the Predators. To look back on this disastrous and painful season the Predators have gone through and think it was worth it, selecting Misa and seeing him eventually become a top line franchise-changing center for the Predators would be the remedy we all need.
Fedor Svechkov is the only center prospect I have some faith in, but the jury is still out on him as he just got his fulltime NHL duty this current season, and it came way ahead of schedule. The Predators have plenty of center prospects, but my confidence in any of them eventually becoming a top-six caliber player is low.
MIsa is arguably the highest pure offensive skills of the draft class. He's also versatile and can play winger or center. I just don't think the Predators can pass that up if he's available regardless of where the Predators end up picking. There's a decent chance Misa slides later in the top-5 and is available at 3 or 4.
In the OHL, Misa has a stat line that will make your head spin; 126 points in 62 games (59 of those are goals) for the Saginaw Spirit where he wears the Captain's patch.
Of course Schaeffer isn't a bad consolation prize, and if the Predators have him available say at No.3, then I say you pull the trigger there. But you also have another top tier center prospect in James Hagen to consider. Hagens is currently at Boston College and has 35 points in 35 games while also having a strong showing at the World Junior U20 for Team USA.
This is a very fluid top end of the draft class. There isn't a strong consensus among any of the draft analysts on who will go where. partially because we don't know how the lottery will shake out but also because there is a lot of differing opinions on who is the best prospect on the board. I've seen Misa, Schaeffer and Porter Martone as top overall picks in mock drafts.
Case in point, if the Predators are picking in the top-5, they should land a dynamic prospect with superstar potential down the road. It will be hard to screw this up unless you fall out of that top-5 sweet spot.
The lottery assigns in random order the top-three picks, then it's based on standings position. The Predators are two points below the Sabres for fourth worst, six points below the Flyers for fifth, and seven points below the Kraken for sixth. So yes, it is still possible that the Predators win at the worst possible time and move themselves out of top-5 draft position, making their pick much more tricky.