So it looks like Mitch Marner will be the focal point of NHL offseason free agency as the Toronto Maple Leafs are on edge of another playoff cliff, but will the Nashville Predators try to sneak into the Marner sweepstakes?
First off, it appears to be a near lock at the point that Marner will not be returning to the Maple Leafs for a max contract. Maple Leafs fans everywhere are revolting against the superstar as their team chokes again in the playoffs, but enraged fans don't make the front office decisions.
However, the Maple Leafs are in a cap squeeze. They have a lot of important players hitting free agency this upcoming offseason, including John Tavares as the major one. If it comes down to choosing between Tavares or Marner, the team might be more inclined to keep Tavares for a cheaper price and shorter term than Marner.
How much will Marner command on open market, and can the Nashville Predators even afford him?
You're going to hear a lot of potential landing spots thrown around to get Marner, and the Nashville Predators should not be one of them. Despite knowing that General Manager Barry Trotz has a tendency to be unpredictable and bullish on landing free agent upgrades, I can't foresee him going after Marner.
Some regular landings spots I've come across are the Chicago Blackhawks, Pittsburgh Penguins, New York Rangers and even the Utah Mammoth. It's going to take a combination of having a lot of salary cap space available and being an attractive match for Marner as the free agent.
With where the Predators franchise is right now in shambles and being more than one big piece away from legitimately pushing for a Stanley Cup anytime soon, Marner would be a massive gamble to tie up a ton of money into long-term with not a lot of guarantees that he makes you that much more of a Stanley Cup contender. It would put butts in seats at Bridgestone Arena, though and probably solve the crater on offense.
I have to admit just fantasizing about it, a line featuring the wingers being Forsberg and Marner does hit hard. Still doesn't solve the center problems or the depth problems this team faces, which is why Marner doesn't solve everything this franchise needs right now.
There have been reports that Marner could land a franchise record deal somewhere, including if he stayed with the Maple Leafs and exceeded Auston Matthews' current per year contract of $13.25 million.
That is an insane amount of money even for a 100-point scorer which Marner just achieved for the first time in his NHL career. His stock couldn't be higher thanks to regular season success, but his playoff gaffes also continue to concern some folks.
This coming from his inexplicable backhand pass that ended in a neutral zone turnover and quickly a Panthers goal after Marner was late defending off his own giveaway in his own zone.
Marner has just 12 career playoff goals for the Maple Leafs in 68 career playoff games.
Look, Marner is going to become the face of someone's franchise next season, and he's probably going to post a boat load of points and highlight reel goals in the future for that next destination.
Again, we have to come back to the contract he is about to demand. A long-term, max deal that you can only justify giving that kind of money to if that player is about to win you not just one, but mutliple Stanley Cups. He is going to tie up money for your franchise for many years to come, even with the salary cap rising.
I'm old school in my thinking. It takes a complete team to win the Stanley Cup. I'm never going to be a fan of tying a bunch of money into one or two players, and that brings me to the more important point as it pertains the Predators; they've already taken their big swings last season for three players in Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei.
The Predators finally need to embrace building from the ground up through the draft and prospect development while hoping that Stamkos and the other veterans decide to bounce back in a big way from them all having down years at the same time last season.
Let's say Trotz shocked the hockey world again and landed Marner this offseason. He would have to free up some more money through a couple trades. I think he would have to find a way to unload a player like Colton Sissons or Jeremy Lauzon to get some additional cap space.
The Predators are actually pretty far down in the projected cap space among NHL teams, sitting with around $17.31 million of projected space according to PuckPedia. You throw in a Marner addition, and that's all your money with still the need to retain RFA Luke Evangelista.
Even with that freed up space of making a trade, Marner is expected to command at least between $13 and $14 million with his next contract. The drama that has unfolded with the Maple Leafs suggests that he's not coming back and the Maple Leafs aren't going to pay him that kind of money, as Paul Bissonnette of NHL on TNT has projected recently.
A team with a lot of cap space and a team ready to make Marner the face of their franchise for years to come is who makes the most sense, and that the Predators aren't that team. If it blew up in the first year or two, it would cripple the franchise for the next decade. You wouldn't have the ability to build the roster around Marner for many years.
Nashville Predators are mainly stuck with the roster they have and hope improvement comes from within
There's just not a lot of flexibility for the Predators right now. Other than Evangelista, the Predators only have Jakub Vrana and Marc Del Gaizo as free agents this offseason. They would have to waive or trade some players to get more cap space. The numbers crunch doesn't add up.
It would be much different and make a little more sense for Trotz to go after Marner if the Predators prospect pool was further along in their development and the team already just proved this past season that they've close to breaking through, but obviously that can't be farther from the truth.
Another reason that the Predators aren't a fit for Marner is that Marner probably wants to go to a more established team ready to win a Stanley Cup now. Not to mention he probably wants a bigger market team or an NHL blueblood to establish his own legacy out of the shadow of Auston Matthews in Toronto.
It's going to be fascinating to see how this all unfolds. What if the Maple Leafs rally to win the series against the Panthers and Marner becomes the hero? An enormous "if", but it's playoff hockey and crazy things happen constantly. Then Marner is the playoff hero of Toronto and maybe he stays.
I do wonder how much Trotz is paying attention to the Marner drama. As much criticism that Marner is getting right now for being a playoff flopper, the guy is an elite winger who plays both sides of the puck and heading into the prime of his NHL career at age 27. Someone is going to make him very rich with the salary cap only going up in the next few seasons.