The NHL has announced this year's three finalists for the Vezina Trophy, an award handed out annually to the league's best goaltender as voted by the league's general managers. The finalists are Connor Hellebuyck of the Winnipeg Jets, Darcy Kuemper of the Los Angeles Kings, and Andrei Vasilevskiy of the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Nashville Predators fans will be disappointed but not shocked to see the omission of Juuse Saros, after a worst-case scenario season. Usually a contender for the trophy year in and year out, even finishing as a finalist in the 2021-22 season, this season was certainly a step back from his top level of play.
When looking at the top level of the rest of the league, however, how far off were Saros' stats really? Let's look at some key stats when looking at goaltenders and see exactly where his competition separated themselves using stats from Money Puck and Statmuse
Goals Saved Above Expected
Goals saved above expected is becoming one of the more heavily weighed stats when voting on the Vezina, as analytics on goaltenders improve. So its no shock to see the current favorite to win the hardware at the top, Hellebuyck. With an imprezzive 39.6 GSAx, he has about one more goal saved over other finalist Vasi, who comes in at 29.2 GSAx. With 22..5 GSAx, the third finalist Kuemper was also top four in the league in that category among goalies with at least 50 starts.
Juuse Saros comes in with -7.4 GSAx, meaning you guessed it, he surrendered more goals than he was projected to. Good for the fourth-worst in the league among goalies with at least 50 starts. The team was leaking chances defensively all season long, so it's no shock Saros was under a lot of offensive pressure, but to give up more than expected is out of character.
High Danger Unblocked Shot Attempt Save%
For this category, Vasi leads goalies we are looking at with a save percentage of 0.855, followed by Kuemper at .803%, followed by Hellebuyck with .780%. Then comes Juuse Saros with a .739%, still above expected, like the save percentages of his competitors as well. The Preds rank 28th in total shots blocked this year, while having the 11th most shots on goal. So even though he kept close to the competition with his high danger save percentage on unblocked shots, he was seeing quite a bit of rubber get through his team, making his life harder.
Wins
Although it can be argued that things like wins are a team stat, the General Managers vote on this award, and we know how they value wins over when evaluating goalies.
Hellebuyck has entered himself into Hart conversations with his level of play, and it's helped earn him and his team 47 wins, an astounding number to hit, especially with 62 starts.
Next comes Vasi with 38 wins in 63 starts; these two led the league in starts and wins, proving to still a few of the true top volume starters left in the league. Kuemper still played a majority of games with 50 and earned 31 wins.
Saros was not all to blame for the lack of wins this year, earning only 20 while still playing 58 games. Usually among the top of the league in starts, he continued with a heavy workload this year perhaps to his own detriment. Maybe with backup Justus Annunen showing promise, he can alleviate some of Saros' workload next year. A more rested and healthy Saros might be able to find more consistency and success season-long.
Save Percentage
As far as save percentage, the Vezina finalists were grouped with very impressive numbers. Hellebuyck came in with .925%, closely followed by Kuemper with .922%, then Vasi slightly lower with .921%.
Below a .900 save percentage is never a good place to be, but it's where Saros found himself this year with a .896%, something he's never done over a multiple-game season in his career. His career average is a 9.14%, so he came in well below his normal pace, and after signing a large extension, fans will hope that pace returns next year because Saros will continue to be the starter for the foreseeable future.