A Halloween rematch between the Nashville Predators and Edmonton Oilers is coming up Thursday night, featuring two teams that have underperformed based on their preseason expectations.
The Predators and Oilers have already faced off once in the early going of 2024-25 with the Predators losing on October 17 by a 4-2 final score.
In what has been rare in the first nine games of the season, the Predators scored first against the Oilers in the first meeting. The Predators have made a bad habit of falling behind by multiple goals, which is what they did in an emotionally intense game at Tampa on Monday.
The Predators do have a four-game point streak intact as they head into their showdown with the Oilers. Even so, the Predators have a long climb back up the standings to get back into respectable territory. They need to continue to string together this point streak to make up ground.
In major injury news, the Oilers will be without Connor McDavid for at least a couple weeks. The Oilers are 4-5-1 on the young season and coming off a 6-1 loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets on Monday.
Key 1: Turn the page, focus on the basics
Even though the Predators have won three of thier past four games, I'm still seeing this team overcomplicate things at times. They're indecisive at critical junctures when they need to be assertive.
With that said, even despite the loss, the Predators took a big step forward in the matchup with the Lightning on Monday. That's a great hockey team they were up against in a hostile environment, and the team got locked in and very nearly completed the comeback from down 2-0.
The Predators also will need turn the page and move on from the Monday night game in Tampa that was full of momentum swings and featured the first period Steven Stamkos tribute.
You're back at home and you're facing an Oilers team without McDavid and also going through similar struggles of not finishing on their scoring chances.
Stamkos in particular hopefully has the weigh off his shoulders and is ready to forge ahead now that his return to Tampa is in the rearview mirror. His play has left a lot to be desired from Predators fans early in his tenure in Nashville, but he did rebound nicely to tally two assists on Monday.
I could be overthinking this, but I'm feeling optimistic that Stamkos is going to play more free and let things come more naturally moving forward.
Key 2: Avoid the critical defensive breakdowns
I like the Predators as a defensive team when they're forcing team to go the full length of the ice. They're effective at breaking up plays by getting in passing lane and winning puck battles on the boards.
The problem is, all of that is for naught when they have these frequent defensive breakdowns that leads to odd man rushes the other way, putting Juuse Saros in a very difficult position to make the save.
This key ties into the previous key of getting back to the basics. Play fundamentally sound and force the Oilers to work harder to find those scoring chances. You cannot make it easy on them by having these gaffes, whether that be from a bad line change or just poor communication.
Stay engaged and make the Oilers earn every inch of ice in what should be a loud Bridgestone Arena on Thursday night.
Believe it or not, as bad as the Predators have been at giving up odd man rushes the other way, they're still fifth in the NHL in Expected Goals Against. They have only given up an Expected Goals Against total of 16.55, per MoneyPuck.
Furthermore in the MoneyPuck team stats, the Predators are a positive 2.17 goals in Expected Goals Differential, but a negative 12 goals in actual Goal Differential. A major gap between the two.
Key 3: Win the special teams battle
The power play, which is loaded on paper, is still a work-in-progress. They tallying power play goals in every game, but they're also getting a lot of chances. That's a great thing that they're forcing teams to commit penalties, but you'd like to see that success rate increase.
The Predators are currently 19th in power play percentage in the NHL at 18.2 percent, while being tied for ninth in power play opportunities with 33. They have to cash in more on all of these power play chances.
The Oilers have been shockingly worse on the power play sitting all the way back at 27th in the NHL with an ugly 13.8 percent success rate. A team who was one win away from the Stanley Cup last season while finishing fourth in power play success rate at 26.3 percent.
Judging by the early season trends, you would think the Predators should flourish in this category tonight considering their penalty kill has been their biggest strength so far.
Saros has been outstanding while the Predators have been on the penalty kill, and his teammates in front of him have been effective at blocking shots and winning puck battles.
The Predators have only surrendered two power play goals all season and they're tied for the best penalty kill in the NHL alongside the Dallas Stars.
Special teams will be a key x-factor tonight as to who wins. The Oilers are not thriving in special teams, so the Predators have to force them into bad situations to commit penalties. Push the pace and force them into taking bad penalties.
The Oilers have the NHL's worst penalty kill, the Predators have the NHL's best. That should be a vital difference-maker in the outcome of the game tonight in favor of the Predators.