There is still plenty of time to hammer out a deal between RFA Luke Evangelista and the Nashville Predators, but we are now in mid-August and you're talking about a player important to Barry Trotz's retool plan.
Evangelista is one of a handful of notable restricted free agents who still haven't gotten deals yet from their respective teams that retain their rights until the deadline of December 1. After that date, the player is ineligible for the remainder of that current season, and Nashville would lose their rights to Evangelista.
Other notable RFAs that have yet to be signed are Luke Hughes (Devils), Marco Rossi (Wild) and Mason McTavish (Ducks).
It would obviously be an epic disaster for Trotz and the Predators front office if this lingers into training camp, and it shouldn't come anywhere near that. However, this does keep on lingering like a bad cold when you're talking about a young player that has top-six potential for this upcoming season. A team that lacks depth among their forwards, and also lacks offensive weapons. But a General Manager who has already admitted that Evangelista is very important to Nashville's future retool.
The clock is ticking louder and louder for Trotz and Evangelista to come to an agreement
The hold up here appears to be how long Evangelista will be willing to commit to staying in Nashville for his next contract. His camp likely wants much shorter term, and understandably so considering Nashville's current status of being far out of contention. Whereas Trotz wants more of a commitment from the young forward who was drafted back in 2020 by Nashville in the 2nd round.
Evangelista now has three seasons under his belt with the Predators, all while playing on his entry level contract. His debut season of 2022-23 he saw just 24 games of NHL ice time, but encouragingly enough put up 15 points.
So where should the panic level be on a scale of 1 to 10 for Predators fans right now? I'd still give it around a 3 or 4 with that number ramping up big time if something isn't hashed out within the next three weeks. After that, we will be getting very close to training camp and the distraction will only get louder.
However, here in the quiet part of the season in mid-August, you still have time to get this done. But I suspect this has to be Trotz's top priority right now behind closed doors.
Now the question I have is who has the leverage in this scenario, and also why has no one put an offer sheet to Evangelista? This is the only reason why my concern level is even at a 4. A team can still swoop in with an offer sheet for Evangelista, which would really put Trotz's feet to the fire. He would have seven days to match the offer or lose Evangelista for a compensation of draft picks in return.
Looking at compensations for RFAs who are offer sheeted and where Evangelista's contract could land, Nashville would receive either a third-round or second-round pick as compensations. Obviously not ideal in losing Evangelista, who by Trotz's own admission is a vital part to Nashville's future.
Who has more leverage right now? Trotz or Evangelista?
It's really hard to say who has more leverage in the negotiations right now. One one hand Evangelista hasn't proven all that much on the NHL level, lowering the chances of a team giving him an offer sheet and giving Trotz more power to eventually get what he wants.
On the other hand, there are always a few teams out there who think they can unlock a young player's talent, and we've seen Nashville bitten by that in the past with player thriving once they break the chains of Nashville.
Nashville has approximately $9.3 million in cap space (per PuckPedia) and want to retain as much as they can to make another addition during the regular season. Evangelista is the only player remaining on the roster that needs to be re-signed, so whatever is left over after this gets done will be retained into the regular season for trades and free agency.
If you get in the neighborhood of $3 million cap hit for Evangelista, that leaves you around $6 million to wheel and deal during the regular season.
My estimation is that Evangelista and the Predators reach a deal by the first week of September. Somewhere in the range of three years, maybe a year longer than Evangelista's camp would like, but also an AAV in the ballpark of $3 million. A 3X3 for your first contract out of your ELC isn't bad at all for Evangelista as he'll be entering a big prove-it year as a piece in Nashville's top-six.
I'm giving it until the first week of September before I really start giving this some serious oxygen of worrying over. It's not a great look either way that these two parties haven't come to an agreement. It's complex and it's hard to know the true details of why this isn't getting done sooner. There's the chance that Evangelista just isn't all that excited about the long-term outlook of Nashville and doesn't want to sign for more than two years, and again I totally get that.
This is why I lean towards Evangelista having slightly more leverage here. Eventually I think Trotz caves to a shorter term than he actually wants to get Evangelista signed and ready to go for 2025-26. Perhaps they come to an understanding at three years
Let's just all keep the fingers crossed that Evangelista isn't the next casualty to this front office botching another young talent.