After another thrilling comeback by the Nashville Predators on Thursday against the Ottawa Senators, they have pulled to just one point back of the Western Conference Wildcard spot with 32 games left in the regular season.
That's a lot of games remaining to make their return to the Stanley Cup Playoffs after finishing near the bottom of the entire NHL last season with 68 points.
Even with a consistent stretch of hockey dating all the way back to Thanksgiving, the Predators still only have a 26.5 percent chance to make the playoffs according to MoneyPuck's playoff odds. The Kings, despite only being one point ahead of Nashville right now, have significantly better odds with a 66 percent chance.
Last season it required the last wildcard team, the St. Louis Blues, to reach 96 points in the standings. The Calgary Flames also had 96 points, but lost the tiebreaker scenario with one fewer regulation win. More on that as it pertains to the Predators later.
Getting 97 points last season got you the top wildcard spot, which was taken by the Minnesota Wild. The Wild lost in six games to the Vegas Golden Knights, and the Blues took it all the way to seven games to get eliminated by the Winnipeg Jets.
In 2023-24, it took a few more points to reach the wildcard in the West. The Predators had 99 points and got them the first wildcard and a hard-fought series loss to the Vancouver Canucks. The last wildcard spot went to Vegas with 98 points. There was a big drop off to the first team out of the playoff picture, which was St. Louis with 92 points.
All of this to say that usually at minimum you need to be mid-90's in points to make the playoffs with a wildcard spot, and sometimes it takes upper 90's if there is a big gap between teams.
However, this season I see it shaping up differently and possibly a mid-90's point team having enough to squeek in. My minimum target for points is 95 for the Predators, but of course that is living dangerously and you'd certainly feel a lot safer if you could add a couple more wins and get to 99 points like they did in 2023-24.
At bare minimum, the Nashville Predators cannot afford to trades wins and losses anymore
This brings me to my target record with 32 games left for the Nashville Predators. I have them at minimum, and again it's not 100 percent fullproof they get in with this record, is the rest of the way having a record of 20-9-3. That would put them at 95 points, but it's also about who you beat along the way that will matter.
The Predators have a lot of games left against fellow wildcard hopeful opponents. In an interesting scheduling quirk, the Predators have yet to play the San Jose Sharks this season and won't face them for the first of three meetings until March 24. That will be long after the trade deadline, so who knows how many important assets the Predators will have sold off by then.
Be that as it may, if you can pull off the improbable three-game sweep of the Sharks, who are not your typical punching bag Sharks teams this year, then that will really boost your chances as a team right in the thick of it with the Predators.
The Predators have two matchups remaining this season against the Chicago Blackhawks, Utah Mammoth, Seattle Kraken and LA Kings. All four of these teams are currently within seven points of each other, with the Predators right in the middle.
Head-to-head matchups with these teams have massive implications becaue they are essentially four-point swings. You beat them, and do it in regulation, and it's going to really tick up those playoff chances.
Now let's look at regulation wins currently among these teams, which is the first tiebreaker after amount of games played which won't matter when everyone finishes with 82 games. Right now the Predators have 17 regulation wins. That's three more than the Sharks and four more than the Kings, so that looms large at the moment.
On the flip side, the Mammoth are the only team with more regulation wins than the Predators right now. They have 19 regulation wins. Everyone else in this cluster of wildcard bubble teams have fewer regulation wins than the Predators, unless you go further down to teams like the Jets and Flames who have a taller hill to climb anyway.
So it may sound obvious, but regulation wins do hold a lot more weight than having to settle for an overtime win if a tiebreaker comes into play, which it did last season and kept the Flames out.
Preds have been playing with fire early in games all season, and that might be their ultimate downfall to fall up short in their playoff push
Realistically speaking, I'm going to actually stick with my original prediction before the season started which is the Predators were going to be so much more improved than their 68-point dismal effort last season, but will fall up short of a playoff return. I don't see them running a 20-9-3 record to reach 95 points over the last 32 games.
The trade deadline, and the need to still sell off some assets that are contributing to this playoff push, is going to most likely lead to some more losses in March and April. If somehow after the trade deadline this team finds ways to keeping winning consistently with younger talent in the lineup, then it will be one of better redemption stories in the NHL.
I just have my doubts that they can climb high enough to actually be one of the two teams. I think San Jose gets them two out of three times, and Utah is good enough to sweep the last two matchups. I do think the Predators could be one of the first teams out of the playoffs in the West.
If somehow the low 90's ends up being enough to make the playoffs, then possibly the Predators could pull it off. No one in this wildcard race seems to be able to create distance. In the Pacific Division there is a fun battle between the Kings, Kraken, Ducks and Oilers to finish in the top-three.
My prediction is that the Sharks and Mammoth get the two wildcard spots and the Predators finish six points short. Somewhere around 88 to 90 points. Hope I'm wrong, but I don't trust what this team is going to look like after the trade deadline, and if they can even keep up this magic while making a bad habit of falling behind early in the games.