The Nashville Predators have the perfect opportunity to reel in a franchise-caliber winger this offseason, but it'll be a huge gamble in the long run.
Teams across the league enter the offseason in economic turmoil. While the Predators enter free agency with wads of cash, other teams aren't so lucky. The Dallas Stars will face what is probably one of, if not, the biggest roster decision in their franchise's history. If they don't find a way to clear up some cap, they put losing winger Jason Robertson at risk.
Robertson, 26, has 213 goals and 490 points in 456 games with Dallas. His contract ends this season, making him a restricted free agent heading into the offseason. With analysts estimating his contract demands around the $12 million average-annual-value mark, and the Stars cap space just clearing $11 million per Puckpedia, finding a way to meet in the middle may prove to be difficult.
On this note, many teams with the proper cap space will likely pursue Robertson in the summer. Nashville is expected to have around $28.5 million in cap space; there's a slim chance that newer management might try and go after the talented winger. While he would improve the team by a lot, it could put the team in a deeper hole than they're in right now.
Nashville will be forced to offer sheet Robertson is they pursue
On paper, the Predators have nowhere near enough assets to make an appealing trade for Robertson. Considering he's a franchise-caliber piece for Dallas, he'll require more than an arm and a leg in exchange. It's also extremely unlikely Stars management will let him walk without sending a qualifying offer, securing his tenure with the team through the offseason.
This leaves only one option for Nashville to acquire Robertson: an offer sheet. An offer sheet is the process of a team sending a contract offer to a restricted free agent during free agency. If the player accepts the deal, their host team has seven days to either match the offer or else they lose them to the winning team. If they lose, they have the chance to receive future draft compensation from the winner, depending on how large the offer was.
This is where it will get nasty for Nashville. In the case of Robertson's expected $12 million AAV, NHL rules states that the Preds will have to give up four first round picks. These picks must be owned by the Preds, meaning they can't go and trade for someone else's first. For a team not taking any risks with trading big picks, this goes against that idea completely. It's best to play it safe and work on what's within the organization first.
While it is fun to imagine what the team would look like with Robertson on the roster, the cons outweigh the pros. If the Preds have one poor season in that four-year span, not only will they not be able to draft high, but they could potentially be allowing the Stars to draft elite prospects, putting them at an advantage in the Central Division.
Whether Preds General Manager Barry Trotz is still behind the wheel come free agency or not, management must focus on preparing for the future. That means racking up drafts picks while also developing the talented prospects we already have, not going after one big name in free agency.
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