The underperformance of the Nashville Predators' 2024 free agent pickups have been the subject in a lot of NHL circles lately, and not for the reason you would want.
The Predators are flirting with last place in the Western Conference and are seeing their playoff hopes fizzle even while we're in mid-November. The heightened sense of desperation is already up on us and we haven't even began preparing our Thanksgiving meals yet.
After an offseason takeover of the headlines thanks to going on a spending frenzy in free agency, Predators General Manager Barry Tortz has already indicated that his patience is running thin to get this thing fixed.
A win over the Vancouver Canucks stops the bleeding for a bit, but this team still has a long and painful climb back up the standings. For that to happen, their big ticket free agents from this past offseason have to start paying off.
Here's my stock report on where each free agent pickup is trending here in the middle of November as the Predators' playoff chances sit at 8.4 percent according to MoneyPuck. Yikes.
For your enjoyment, I have some gifs at the end of each section to illustrate my feelings of where these players are trending.
Steven Stamkos: Trending Up
It really wasn't all that surprising to see Stamkos start off slow for his tenure with the Predators. He played for the Lightning for his entire 16-year NHL career and suddenly had to learn Andrew Brunette's system. The struggle to find the right linemates for him has been a struggle to say the least.
Stamkos just had his best game of his first 19 with the Predators in the win over the Canucks. He looked like vintage Stamkos from his Lightning days, parked in his office on the power play for two goals.
I argued even when Stamkos wasn't finding the back of the net that he was at least putting shots on net and was the victim of bad puck luck. He was hitting posts getting stopped by better goalie play.
Stamkos is trending up for the Predators now. He's up to six goals and four assists with 50 shots on net. His 50 shots is fourth on the team, and his five power play goals leads the team.
The Predators have suddenly moved to the 9th in the NHL in power play percentage. If the Predators can keep this trend moving upward on the power play, it will be largely because of Stamkos.
I can still see Stamkos rallying to push Forsberg for the team lead in goals when it's all said and done. Forsberg probably finishes as the leading goal scorer, but I can see Stamkos getting better and better as the season rolls on and finishing with 30-plus goals.
Jonathan Marchessault: Trending Down
The exact opposite trend for Marchessault right now. The guy can't buy a goal with only three on the season and a shocking 5.3 shooting percentage. He has 57 shots on goal, so the hope is similar to Stamkos that his luck will eventually turn around.
Machessault is struggling to make any kind of noticeable impact right now. He has chipped in seven assists to his credit with his continued work on the power play.
We're talking about a guy who had a career high 42 goals last season with the Vegas Golden Knights. His current goal pace is around 13 goals. I just can't fathom that actually happening if he plays in all 82 games. So much like Stamkos, I think Marchessault will begin to find his scoring rhythm, but right now you have to be honest with yourself and say that he's trending down.
Until we see Marchessault string together multiple games of high offensive impact, we're going to continue to wonder if the issue is the player or is it the coaching of Brunette?
Everything Marchessault tries to do right now seems like a massive struggle. Like Homer Simpson climbing an impossible mountain.
Brady Skjei: Neutral
I really don't know what to think about Skjei so far. He hasn't been a total bust, but he also certainly hasn't been a $7 million per year defenseman. He's serviceable, but not been as good as advertised.
Skjei brings some offensive flare to his game, but I'm more worried about his defensive play. It hasn't been what I would call anywhere close to elite level. This front office invested seven years in him, so he has to obviously elevate his level of play to feel good about that.
The pairing of Josi and Skjei have been underwhelming from what you would expect from them on paper. Doesn't mean there's not time to improve on that chemistry and become a force with time. Again, the Predators don't have a lot of time left to work out the kinks. They have to figure out the chemistry now.
Skjei has two goals and five assists in all 19 games for the Predators. I have Skjei's stock as neutral right now. He's just been ordinary, but the Predators need him to be better than ordinary. His pairing with Josi has been underwhelming on the defensive end, allowing 3.16 Expected Goals Against per 60 which is 2nd-highest on the team.
I'm honestly perplexed by Skjei. I couldn't make sense of seven years for $7 millin per at the time of the signing, and I most certainly can't now.
Scott Wedgewood: Slightly Trending Up
Yes, call me a little crazy all you want, but Wedgewood's last outing was a big step in the right direction to trusting him as Juuse Saros' backup.
That's all you need a backup to be is trustworthy. Not lights out or a 2.00 GAA goalie, but just good enough to not be the sole reason your team lost. He can't be the liability for a Predators team that's still trying to find their consistency on offense.
Wedgewood played well enough in his last outing against the Edmonton Oilers to get the win, but he only got two goals of support from the team in front of him. His played was a big x-factor in the Predators at least salvaging a point.
This was at least a positive step forward for the rarely used Wedgewood. A much different level of confidence than what we had when Kevin Lankinen stepped in for Saros last season.
Right now Wedgewood appears to only be used when it's a back-to-back situation. No extra starts for Wedgewood unless he instills more confidence from coaches that he won't be a liability.
So to recaps, Stamkos is leading the way among the free agent pickup to at least be returning closer to his normal form. Marchessault is stuck under a dark cloud, Skjei is a mystery, and Wedgewood has nowhere to go but up.