April Fools: Why the Nashville Predators Aren't Set Up For Playoff Success
Possibly Foolish Reasons From a Lifetime of Playoff Disappointment
A Decimated Defense
So there are a few things to unpack here. Tyson Barrie is currently your 9th defenseman which is pretty great depth. Except that he's playing.
The Predators can not sustain another injury and even without one, they are down to their last rung. Another injury completely hampers the team, or forces a player to try and play through injury.
Thinking about this keeps me up nights. Why? Think back to the years 2003-2004, and the Flyers are defensively destroyed. There's only five. They haven't been able to keep the lineup full all year and are forced to turn to 5'10" Finnish winger Sami Kapanen. It didn't kill the team but still, it is never a situation you want to find yourself in.
Secondary Scoring Dries Up
The Predators have been a one-line team for a large portion of the season, and it finally catches up to them.
Scorers number 1, 3, and 4 are all on the same line. Top scorer 2 is a defensman. Team leader Filip Forsberg has 83 points. 5th place is Tommy Novak at 39 points. That's a 44-point swing between 1 and 5. Nobody on the team outside of the top four (Forsberg, Roman Josi, Gustav Nyquist, Ryan O'Reilly) has more than 15 goals.
The Predators' scoring has been spread out in a great way for the regular season. They've had twenty players suit up and score more than 10 points. 17 of them are on the roster now (Phil Tomasino and Jusso Parssinen are in the AHL and Yakov Trenin is on Colorado) but who are you expecting to score in a playoff game outside of the big line? Jason Zucker is pretty hot since getting traded to the team but he hasn't shown a lot of playoff success, Colton Sissons has already scored more than expected, do we really think it will keep carrying over?
Want a really scary stat? Other than Forsberg, O'Reilly, Zucker, Sissions, Nyquist, and Anthony Beauvillier (who has 1 point since being traded to the Predators) no other Predators forward has ever scored a playoff goal. Outside of those players nobody even has a playoff point, save for Kiefer Sherwood with a lone assist.
Brunette Can't Make the Playoff Adjustments
The 2021-2022 Florida Panthers were a wagon. They boatraced the league and won the Presidents Trophy with the best regular season record, going 58-18-6. That's right, they lost less than 20 regular season games in regulation. A stacked team that went all in at the deadline to bring in even more talent only won one series. They dispatched the wild card Washington Capitals 4-2 before getting taken apart by the Tampa Bay Lightning, being swept in the 2nd round.
It was likely difficult for Brunette that season. An interim coach who pushed the right buttons with his team found himself at the helm of hockey's best team, but in uncharted waters. Whatever it was he did or didn't dial up against the Lightning fell short.
Then Brunette bounced over to the New Jersey Devils and as assistant coach helped oversee another 2nd round exit. Twice is a coincidence and three times is a trend and that is not one we want forming from a head coach that should be in the Jack Adams conversation this season.
Juuse Runs Out of Juice
Right now Juuse Saros is leading the league in games played amongst goalies and is likely going to be at the top of the league when the regular season ends in nine games. He's defying the odds currently again and he won't be able to sneak a break in at all once the playoffs start.
Saros has only 10 starts in his NHL playoff career, winning just three of those games. But his save percentage and GAA is commendable at .914 and 2.78 goals allowed per game. This would be only his third postseason appearance as the team's number one starter after being the backup to Pekka Rinne during his first three playoff appearances.
With nine games to go and only one back to back you can safely assume that Saros will get another eight starts. Plus the Predators are only 4 points back of the Winnipeg Jets. If they push for that 3rd spot in the Central Division, Saros might be at the end of his rope by playoff time.
The Curse of the Catfish
Hockey is a game of tradition and superstition. It has been told that someone who touches the Stanley Cup before they win it will never be able to win it. Players don't shave during the playoffs. Fans have also evolved traditions over time. For example, Detroit tosses an octopus onto the ice.
The hockey gods are fickle. In 1999, Nashville did their version of it, against the Detroit Red Wings. From the Tennessean :
Wolf bought a nine-pound catfish and wrapped it in newspaper and plastic wrap. On Jan. 26, 1999, Wolf tucked the catfish underneath his Predators’ jersey, walked in and waited for Nashville’s first goal. The stench started wafting around him until the Preds’ lone goal in what ended up a 4-1 loss.
Wolf said he tossed the catfish, then ran up the aisle. Friends around the arena provided cover and a distraction by running as well.
In mocking an original six franchise, the hockey gods have decided that Predators fans will suffer for an undisclosed period of time.
Why would something like this matter? When you break rules bad things happen. In 1985 construction began on a skyscraper called One Liberty Place in Philadelphia. That building was the first to be taller than City Hall, which had a statue of William Penn on it. The city had abided by a gentleman's agreement not to build higher than the statue. Once that agreement was broken the curse of Billy Penn was enacted. The city of Philadelphia didn't win another championship until 2008, a little over a year after a new statue had been affixed to the top of the now tallest building in the city, the Comcast Center.
I don't know how exactly how to sacrifice a catfish to the hockey gods but let's figure out a way to get that done.