Last Minute Trade Deadline Plans for Nashville Predators: Trenin, Carrier, Barrie
We're down to 48 hours before the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline arrives, and the Preds still have some players to make difficult decisions on.
Yakov Trenin will be Hard to Keep Unless he takes Team-Friendly Deal
Yakov Trenin is a fan-favorite, and rightfully so. He plays the game so hard and does so many little things effectively. He hits, he forechecks and he is vital to the Predators' penalty kill. Losing him would be a downgrade in those areas.
However, it really comes down to what Trenin is seeking in a contract. If he's willing to stick around what he's making now, or even take a slight decrease in pay, then the Predators can probably work something out. That's probably what Trotz is negotiating hard for coming down the wire, but the ball might be in Trenin's court.
Trenin in his own right might feel inclined to move on and get a pay increase in the process. There is talks that Trotz wants to move on to re-sign other pending free agents now that Novak is taken care of. Trenin probably fits into that conversation.
However, if the two sides can't come together before Friday's deadline, then Trenin probably has to be dealt. You can get a mid to 2nd-round draft pick for Trenin from a playoff contending team who needs more physicality in their depth.
I'm 50/50 on this one. I really don't know what to expect on if Trenin gets re-signed, but I have been talking about this possibility of losing Trenin since December.
You Cannot Move Past Trade Deadline Without Trading Lankinen
I don't see a pathway forward that makes sense with keeping Kevin Lankinen in a Predators sweater. Not because he's a bad backup to Juuse Saros, but actually the opposite. Because he has outplayed his backup status and probably deserves to be a 1B type of goaltender somewhere else.
With Yaroslav Askarov on the cusp of being a full-time NHL goalie, and with the trade talks cooling off with Saros, Lankinen is the odd man out. And he's due to be a UFA this summer.
You can't push aside the importance of having a backup goaltender you can trust when going into the playoffs. With the exception of Connor Hellebuyck for Winnipeg and Thatcher Demko for Vancouver, every playoff team either has a quality one-two punch in their crease or is in search for one.
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Lankinen can be valuable on the trade market for that reason. He can be a quality insurance policy for your playoff run. I think about a team like the Colorado Avalanche with Alexander Georgiev. Do they really trust Georgiev to be good enough to get them to a Stanley Cup, which is that team's ultimate ceiling.
Even the teams who are in search of a starting goalie might have to settle for a lesser prize of Lankinen. Think the Devils and their goalie mess, or the Hurricanes who have juggled five different goalies this season.
Lankinen should be able to fetch you a mid-round draft pick. Just get something out of him, then you call up Askarov to backup Saros the rest of the way. I know that would hurt the Admirals playoff run, but you have to have the NHL club as the top priority.
Barrie Being Traded Looks Inevitable
I'm not going to lie about this when I say I'm getting pretty exhausted talking about Tyson Barrie being traded. Obviously the interest wasn't there when these leaks first came out in December, but now with a cheaper price tag, Barrie has probably played his last game in a Predators uniform.
Barrie remains on Frank Seravalli's trade targets board on Daily Faceoff, sitting at No.23 and the highest ranked Predators player.
"The good news for Barrie is he’s incredibly well respected as a locker room influence, one of the most connected players in the game, and every day that passes he gets just a little bit less expensive on the salary cap."
Once it was pretty clear that no one was beating down the door to acquire Barrie in a trade, Trotz had to move forward with the veteran mostly as a healthy scratch. You don't want a trade asset getting needlessly injured, and you certainly didn't want to take away ice time from Alexandre Carrier or Dante Fabbro.
With time running out to get something done, look for Barrie to finally get out of Nashville, but not for anything substantial in return. He's a standup guy and class act and he deserves to be an every night starter somewhere. I wish it would've ended more smoothly for both sides in Nashville.
Sherwood is an Important Depth Piece that Might Be Retained for Cheap
I've flip flopped on Kiefer Sherwood and what should happen with him. I absolutely love his tenacity and you never have to wonder if Sherwood took a game off in the effort department. You need trustworthy players to win seven-game playoff series.
With that said, Sherwood's future kind of hinges on what happens with Trenin, who I covered earlier. I don't see a scenario where both are kept because they play similar styles. Sherwood should be easier to retain, and I actually he has a similar ceiling to Trenin.
If Trenin wants more money than you're comfortable with, then I'm testing the waters with Sherwood. It's defininitely not ideal to lose both, so Sherwood might be the more realistic player to keep in Nashville for a cheaper price, but similar upside.
Sherwood has 16 points in 49 games, while Trenin has 14 points in 59 games. Trenin brings more value defensively and on the penalty kill, so that has to be considered as well. They also have nearly the same amount of hits on the season, while Sherwood plays over three minutes less of ice time to Trenin.
It really comes down to who is more expensive. I'm going with the more affordable Sherwood if it comes down to choosing between him or a more expensive Trenin.
Carrier is the Most Valuable Trade Piece for Predators
Just 48 hours away from the trade deadline, Carrier is my top trade block piece for the Predators. He holds significant value as a two-way defenseman that can boost a contender's defensive corps.
Important to remember that Carrier is likely a rental piece for whoever goes after him on the trade market, and could even be a rental for the Predators' playoff push. Trotz could seemingly decide to keep Carrier for his own playoff push, knowing full well that Carrier could be gone this offseason. That's the risk you take here.
That is why I'm leaning much more heavily towards Carrier being traded than being retained, unless Trotz constructs a contract extension in the final hours. Much like Trenin's case, I'm sure Trotz is looking for a way to make the numbers work.
The conundrum here is that trading Carrier would rattle your defensive corps. He has been playing alongside Jeremy Lauzon for much of the season. The duo has the second-most ice time together on the team at 555 minutes, only behind the Roman Josi/Dante Fabbro duo.
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Also, the Predators aren't incredibly deep on the right side of their defense. With Carrier gone, and Barrie likely as well, that leaves you very thin on the right side with no prospects that are NHL ready. You do have Spencer Stastney, the organization's best defensive prospect, but he is on the left side.
Before the eight-game win streak I would've said who cares, let's move on. But now I'm not so sure.
This is why Trotz is likely trying to retain Carrier as his top pending free agent. Really difficult scenario on hand. I don't see anyone in the prospect pool ready to be called up to the NHL full-time, unless you turn back to Jordan Gross or Jake Livingstone. That would be fine if the Predators were far out of a playoff spot.
This win streak really changed the dynamic of this entire trade deadline strategy for Trotz.