Nashville Predators Key Stat Leaders: Forsberg Charges Offense, McDonagh's Defense
Over a quarter of the way through 2023-24, here's an update on Preds Stat Leaders
Goals and assists: Filip Forsberg
I decided to put both goals and assists under the same discussion, since they both fall under the category of points, and happen to be led by the same player. Forsberg has 14 goals and 16 assists in 27 games and has been on an absolute offensive tear to start the 2023-24 season.
There really is not a thing he has not done well this year, whether that be shooting, passing, skating, overall vision, you name it. Forsberg has done it all, and it truly looks like having an offensive-minded coach in Andrew Brunette is helping him tremendously, as he is still in his "prime" years.
This feels very reminiscent to Forsberg's 2021-22 season, when he missed 13 games and still had 42 goals, and was not the team leader only because Matt Duchene had 43. It is also a huge deal for Forsberg because many were worried after he suffered a brutal concussion that ended his 2022-23 campaign, but it does not look to be bothering him in the slightest.
As far as the rest of the competition on the Predators goes, the only one who is near him in goals is Ryan O'Reilly with 12. I do not expect that to change much if at all, as there are no other players on the team with the combination of refined offensive skill plus experience.
Tommy Novak may have had a shot if he did not get injured, but expectations for him would have had to be realistic anyway since he is one of those players with virtually zero experience, and is expected go through some inconsistency before fully finding himself.
As for assists, the next guys threatening Forsberg are Gustav Nyquist with 15, Roman Josi with 14, and O'Reilly, Luke Evangelista, and Tyson Barrie tied for 10. The only thing I find surprising about that is that O'Reilly is not higher up on the list.
We know his role on offense as being a force in the middle of the ice, and he will control the puck lots of times and distribute it to open guys. With him being so heavily involved as the top center on the Predators, I expect him to close the gap with Forsberg sooner rather than later.
Now in terms of overall points, Forsberg is of course well in the lead with 30, and next are O'Reilly with 22, Josi with 20, and Nyquist with 18. If I expect O'Reilly to rise up in the assists category, I also expect him to improve a bit here as well, but these are by far the Predators' most established weapons on offense, and by and large, it is expected to stay that way throughout the season.
Powerplay points: Ryan O'Reilly and Filip Forsberg
One of the areas for the Predators that had to improve under Brunette was the powerplay, as it had been one of the league's worst for years beforehand. This was one area where he was especially open about working through trial and error, but it has already improved from a dismal 17.6% last year to 20.6% so far this year.
Personnel also is contributing to the improvement on the man advantage, especially when you look at one of the guys who is tied for the team lead in points. Ryan O'Reilly has made the lives of everyone else so much easier with the extra man on the ice.
He has seven goals and four assists for eleven points on the powerplay, as the work he does in the middle of the ice each time has been so key for the Predators. His combination of size, hockey smarts, and raw skills is oftentimes too much for opposing teams to handle, and it has been awhile since the team has had someone who threatens penalty killers so much.
Forsberg also has eleven powerplay points, as he has two goals and nine assists. That is a little bit surprising to me, as while he is no slouch of a distributor, he is a better shooter, and you would figure that he would be the sniper while O'Reilly would be the one doing the work down low.
Regardless, we know about Forsberg's overall offensive skill and the year he is having, so one way or another he will be a huge threat on the powerplay.
Besides Forsberg and O'Reilly, Josi has been another big powerplay weapon with three goals and six assists, Nyquist has two goals and six assists, and Novak has four goals and two assists. Those contributions are about expected from Josi and Nyquist, but let's talk about Novak, who is second on the team in powerplay goals in far fewer games than everyone else.
We know that he will go through some bumps along his overall road with his lack of experience, but that might not be the case with his powerplay work. He has two attributes that translate to big production on the man advantage: finishing plays in front of the net and shooting the puck.
You can see how his abilities have aided him, as he is still one of the team's best powerplay contributors despite missing eleven games. What I really wonder after looking at the Predators' powerplay production is what if Novak did not get injured.
He might even be the very best weapon or close to it if he did not go on injured reserve, but we should still expect him to play a critical role going forward, even if he has significantly less experience than everyone else.
Short-handed points: Colton Sissons
While the powerplay is stating to show serious signs of improvement under a new system, the penalty kill has not been doing so well. Although they have been much better lately, the Predators are still near the bottom of the league with only a 75.3% killing rate, but that does not mean they have been terrible in every way.
They have been quite aggressive on the penalty kill this year, and while that has hurt them a good bit, it has also helped them from time to time. In particular, Colton Sissons has done some really good things and leads the team in short-handed points with three goals.
Overall, the 30-year-old veteran center has had arguably his best season, as he is on pace for a career high in points, and continues to be as reliable as ever. Part of that reliability has been on the defensive side of things which includes the penalty kill, and he is showing why he deserves those minutes when the Predators are a man down.
Another guy who is making his mark as an effective penalty killer is Cole Smith, who has two assists short-handed. For all the flack he has taken from this fanbase over the past year plus, he continues to control the controllables and be a pest towards his opponents, working extremely hard and impacting results on both ends of the ice.
The only thing that is surprising about the team's short-handed points is that O'Reilly is not included, as he is a great two-way player and gets lots of minutes on the penalty kill. Whether or not the stats will eventually reflect it, he has a major impact on the Predators' short-handed play and does tremendous work at all times.
Offensive point shares: Filip Forsberg
Incase you are not familiar, this stat is an estimate of the number of points contributed by a player due to his offense, and Forsberg is the leader with 2.8. Once again, with how offensively prolific he has been this season, it is not a surprise that he is leading this category.
Next on the list is O'Reilly with an OPS of 1.8, Josi's is 1.7, and Novak's is next with 1.0.
As has been a theme throughout this article, it is a little surprising that O'Reilly is not higher on the list, but that likely has to do with the fact that his assist totals have not been higher, which too is surprising.
Josi's OPS is fairly expected, and Novak's might be higher if he was not injured, but once again, since he has so little experience and half of his total points are on the powerplay, I was never expecting him to catch Forsberg or O'Reilly.
Now one player's OPS that might jump out as quite surprising is Nyquist's, whose is only 0.8. It seems a bit contradictory at first glance since he has been a decent part of this team's offense so far, but a closer look shows you why that might be.
The overwhelming majority of his contributions have been on assists, as 15 of his 18 points are helpers, and two of his three goals are on the powerply. The eye test also tells you that despite his base numbers, he has not been anywhere near as offensively prolific as Forsberg and O'Reilly, for example.
While there are a few slight surprises with how this category is panning out, there are no huge ones either.
Defensive point shares: Ryan McDonagh, Roman Josi, and Alexandre Carrier
As with the previous stat, this one is an estimate of the number of points a player contributes due to his defense, and right off the bat, there is no surprise who is at the top of this list. Josi and Ryan McDonagh are tied with a DPS of 1.1, but the other who has the same DPS is Alexandre Carrier.
Let's talk about what a great year McDonagh has had so far. Last year for whatever reason, there were lots of times when he was struggling to fit with the team and just not what he was expected to be, but this season he has been near flawless.
McDonagh has done super well and in particular, doing what he does best, which is being a lights-out defenseman. His offensive game has also been far from bad this year, as he has a goal and eight assists in 20 games, and has had several good passes up the ice in transition.
Josi does not need much of an explanation because we all know him so well, but Carrier has played very well in a contract year. He has a goal and seven assists in 23 games, and his defense especially has been super sturdy and stifled the opposition.
How well he has contributed on both ends of the ice is reflective of him being known as someone with strong two-way abilities.
If there were anything surprising from this, it would be that McDonagh is not slightly ahead of Josi in DPS. McDonagh is known for pure defense while offense is a way bigger part of Josi's game, and as those two get more time as a pairing, the DPS stat might shift a bit more in McDonagh's favor.
But Josi too is strong on defense, and considering that this stat measures how many points come from defense, it is not a big surprise that he and McDonagh are close. It will continue to be pretty close between both of them and likely Carrier as well, who is having a great year himself.
Hits: Jeremy Lauzon
The Predators are not the same bruising, physical team that they were under John Hynes, but it is not like that has completely gone away. Part of it could be Brunette trying to figure out what best suits his team, but the Predators are not shying away from battles and laying the body when needed.
A good balance of everything is necessary in the game of hockey, and like it or not, the Predators are still going to need some of that hard-nosed play to be a complete team. Luckily for them, they still have guys who have no problem being tough and gritty when necessary.
Jeremy Lauzon leads the team with 83 hits, next is Kiefer Sherwood with 77, Cole Smith has 69, and Yakov Trenin has 66. All of these guys on the team are known for being physical grinders, and it is no surprise that they are at the top of this list.
The only thing that I find truly surprising about this list is who is not on here, and that is Michael McCarron. He has always been known as a grinder and has multiple fights this year, but has only registered 17 hits in 23 games for some reason.
It might also seems surprising that Luke Schenn is not higher on this list, as he only has 30 hits on the year. But he has only played in nine games due to injury, so that explains it there.
Takeaways: Ryan O'Reilly
Everyone has raved heavily about O'Reilly since he joined the Predators, as he makes a huge impact on the ice and in the locker room. For all the praise he has gotten especially on the ice, people around here do not talk enough about how good of a two-way player he is, despite him winning a Selke Trophy in 2018-19.
You can just see on the ice the work he does at both ends, and him leading the team in takeaways perfectly illustrates that. He has 27 on the year, and nobody else is even remotely close, Forsberg is next with 17 of them.
O'Reilly just battles everywhere, and most games you can recall an instance or two where you just think "what a defensive play by him, that is why he is a Selke Trophy winner and always in the mix."
What is surprising about this stat for the Predators is that not only is there not a defensemen anywhere near O'Reilly, they are not even near the top of the list. McDonagh is the top defenseman on the list, and he is only ninth on the list with eight of them on the year.
You would think that a statistic like this would favor defensemen, since they are the ones who most often disrupt the offense and overall puck flow of other teams. Regardless, this is a stat that measures how much you are working and battling on both offense and defense, and moreso than anyone else, we can see that O'Reilly is just everywhere for this Predators team.