Ranking Nashville Predators 2024 Free Agents Who Need to Be Re-Signed

The trade deadline is less than two months away, and one factor into how you deal with the trade deadline is the consideration of dealing off pending free agents who have a low probability of being re-signed.

The Predators mostly have their veteran core signed through next season, but they also have key depth players who will be hitting unrestricted free agency. They currently have six forwards, two defensemen and one goalie who will be UFAs this offseason. That's not even including the restricted free agents, which brings the total number of 2024 free agents to 12.

Even with the NHL salary cap expected to be raised by $4.2 million, and the Predators having the fourth-most projected cap space right now, it's still going to be difficult to keep everyone that you want to keep.

The NHL salary cap has seen little growth since the pre-pandemic season of 2019-20. This has really hampered teams from making a lot of bold moves on the trade market or retaining players that want to keep.

With that said, let me rank my top-5 highest priority free agents that the Nashville Predators need to get re-signed. If they're not on this list, it means that I have a high likelihood this player is lost either through a trade or in free agency this summer.

5. Yakov Trenin: 2024 UFA, $1.7M Current Cap Hit

This is a case of possibly trading a player not because they haven't been valuable for your team, but simply because the money just might not make sense. Trenin is going to expect a decent pay raise, and I'm not sure the Predators can manage it without losing some other free agents that have higher priority for me.

Now, obviously the trade deadline can change all of this. If an unforeseen sell-off of assets happens at the deadline, it could free up more money to re-sign Trenin. However, as of now without knowing of any trades in the works, I find it hard to make the math work to keep Trenin in Nashville.

Trenin is a grinder. He works his tail off for the bottom six, and you can never underestimate that importance. It's also more easily replaceable that replacing pure offensive skill players.

My inclination is that Trenin is going to expect upwards of around $2.5M per year on the open market, and he deserves that with the right team who needs a player like him, and there are plenty who do.

Will the Predators be willing to give Trenin around three years at that price tag? I'm skeptical, which is why shopping Trenin on the trade market now makes sense. He would be a very cheap rental for a playoff bound team to add grit and tenacity to their bottom six. You need grinders in the playoffs.

Trotz may not want to trade Trenin because he has playoff hopes of his own in 2024, but he has also hinted that he realizes the Predators are still a couple years away from realistically competing deep into the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Maybe they make the numbers work and Trenin is willing to take a team friendly deal to stay with Nashville, but I remain very doubtful.

3. Alexandre Carrier: 2024 UFA, $2.5M Current Cap Hit

I don't see a scenario where the Predators will be able to keep both Alexandre Carrier and Dante Fabbro into next season. So it comes down to choosing between the two young defensemen who are looking to take the next vital step in their NHL careers.

Fabbro will be an RFA with arbitration eligibility, which will make contract negotiations tricky for the Predators to keep him in 2024 offseason. Carrier will be a UFA and far less NHL experience than Fabbro despite being almost two years older.

Carrier took the much longer path to the NHL compared to Fabbro who was thrown in quickly. Carrier's ceiling seems higher than Fabbro's, but either way it's a tough decision to pick one or the other in terms of who you re-sign.

Fabbro is going to demand more money and more term than Carrier, and he'll get more interest on the open market than Carrier. While Carrier has more offensive upside, you can also get him for a more team-friendly deal than I think you can get Fabbro for.

Carrier has also taken a step forward in his defensive game this season. He's among the best defensive pairings in the NHL playing alongside Ryan McDonagh, ranking 11th in Expected Goals Against Per 60 and 9th in Expected Goals %, per MoneyPuck.

Carrier has played most of his time on a pairing with Jeremy Lauzon at 330 minutes together, second-most on the team only trailing Fabbro and Roman Josi on a pairing.

You need to find a way to keep Carrier in Nashville for another couple seasons, and I think you can get him for moderately cheaper than Fabbro and take less risk, higher potential reward. In a perfect scenario, maybe you keep both, but I don't see it happening.

2. Philip Tomasino: 2024 RFA, $863,333 Cap Hit (Entry Level Contract)

I pinpointed Philip Tomasino as a player going into the season who had something to prove to the Predators front office as he was entering the final year of his ELC. After a rocky start and getting healthy scratched, he has bounced back and trending in the right direction towards getting his first NHL standard contract.

If Trotz is serious about staying the course on the "retool" that they like to call this with the young core of player, then Tomasino has to be one of your top priorities to get a new contract.

Tomasino signaled the shift into a youth movement that we've been talking about since then. He was drafted 24th-overall in 2019 and his stock skyrocketed on his path to the NHL. He made his debut in the 2021-22 season and put up 32 points in 76 games.

After bouncing back down to the AHL, Tomasino has continued to prove himself and battle through adversity as a bottom six player now. He's making the most of his minutes with just 12:44 of average ice time, which is nearly a three minute decrease from his 31 games last season.

Despite that, Tomasino is eighth on the Predators in points with 17 while looking to make a noticeable impact on the second power play unit.

With nearly half of a season left for Tomasino to further his case of getting a new contract, it seems pretty likely the Predators will commit to him for at least another couple of years with his first NHL standard contract at age 22.

1. Tommy Novak: 2024 UFA, $800,000 Current Cap Hit

Novak was signed to a one-year minimal deal in February of 2023, and since then he has outplayed that contract very decisively. He has proven he's capable of second line minutes at center, and has had to step up his game with Cody Glass going through his own troubles and being healthy scratched.

It would be mind-boggling and baffling if the Predators were to not retain Novak, but there is always the chance that Trotz throws a monkey wrench into everything and trades Novak at the trade deadline.

I just don't see it making logical sense to deal off any of your young core right now, which is why Novak is my top priority among 2024 free agents. With him being a UFA and having a lot of upside as a true center with high scoring potential, teams will be very interested if Novak was available on the open free agent market.

That's why I only see one of two things being a possibility with Novak; he's re-signed to a multi-year deal at some point before the season ends or he's traded at the deadline because Trotz has other plans that might not be clear right now.

I'm going with option 1 of re-signing Novak. He's entering the prime of his hockey career at age 26 and it's very likely we haven't even seen the best of him yet. You invest in a player like Novak. He's homegrown, he plays the game the right way and has enormous boom potential in the next five years.

As you can see, some notable free agents I left off this top-5 list are Fabbro, Tyson Barrie, Keifer Sherwood, Michael McCarron and Kevin Lankinen. Just to name a few. All quality players, but none of them move the needle enough for me to have them higher priority than the top five mentioned above.

All contract info courtesy of CapFriendly.com