The most surprising move in the offseason by the Nashville Predators surely had to be the July 1st deal that sent Mavrik Bourque and Ilya Lyubushkin to Broadway in exchange for a 2027 2nd-round pick and a 2028 3rd-round pick.
Typically, July 1st is the day that we're all awaiting free agency news, but instead the Preds swung a trade, and it was one that gave them one of the more talked-about young players that offseason. Now we're about 15% through the season, so we're peeling back the numbers to try and see just how well Mavrik Bourque is adjusting to the Predators.
The scoring hasn't come...yet
Last season with the Dallas Stars, Bourque put up a respectable 41 points (20 goals, 21 assists) in his 2nd season of full-time NHL action. This was while he was getting around 15:29 a game in terms of ice time, and starting his shifts in the defensive zone around 51% of the time. Not bad.
This season, he's lurched out of the gates. Through 13 games, he's only managed 3 assists, and currently has not scored a goal. That's not awful, but seeing him below other offseason acquisitions like Nils Hoglander, Alex Kerfoot, Adam Edstrom, Ross Colton, and Jack Druy is a bit of a surprise.
Now Bourque has played mostly the center position in the NHL, and with the Predators, he's playing some center, but not exclusively. As he navigates this new role with the Predators' top six and the shuffling of the lineup with a Matthew Wood trade, he hasn't quite found his groove.
We do know the scoring is there. He was the AHL's leading scorer in the 2023-2024 season and had 51 assists that season. Playing with volume shooters like Steven Stamkos should eventually help Bourque catch up.
The advanced stats aren't kind
With a position change comes some growing pains. Right now, Bourque is being utilized in the offensive zone more (up to 65% of zone starts) but his counting stats aren't there, and the play driving stats tell a story of a player who just hasn't figured it out yet.
His Corsi number is under the positive line (around 50%), resting at 48.8 % currently. That essentially means that the Predators are generating slightly fewer shot attempts than their opponents when Bourque is on the ice. Now, if his zone starts were weighted more heavily toward the defensive zone, like last season in Dallas, his number would be fine. However, with the majority of his time coming from the offensive zone, and the fact that he has only generated 25 shots so far this year, it does cause a mild concern.
His previous year in Dallas saw his Corsi level out at 53.1. Now you can chalk that up to a stronger team, and this year the Predators' offense is as meh as it was last season (20th in goals for both), but we assumed Bourque might improve that.
We're happy to give him some time and the Predators certainly were with his 6 year $33 million dollar deal. Hopefully he'll figure it out and be more than a defensively responsible winger who can take faceoffs.
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