Predicting how far Steven Stamkos can eventually climb on the NHL All-Time Goals list

Steven Stamkos passed Jari Kurri for 21st on the NHL all-time goals list on Tuesday in a thrilling 4-3 overtime win for the Nashville Predators over the Edmonton Oilers, an opponent that has terrorized them in recent memory.

It was also Stamkos' 20th goal of the season, which is good for the Predators team lead on the with four more than Filip Forsberg. The 20-goal achievement is the 16th time Stamkos has reached this mark, joining only three other active NHL players (Alex Ovechkin 21, Sidney Crosby 18, Patrick Kane 16).

How many more years of consistent goal scoring does Steven Stamkos have left in him?

Now it's time to do some math, and also some predicting not only on how many goals Stamkos has left in the tank to keep climbing this list, but also if he'll do it in a Nashville Predators sweater.

There is also an important distinction to make for maybe the more casual fans out there when it comes to how the NHL tracks goals towards the official record book. The all-time goals list that Stamkos is climbing up only counts regular season goals, and not playoff goals. Alex Ovechkin leads the all-time list with 917, and of course he is still currently adding to that total.

Stamkos is only in his second season since dramatically leaving the Tampa Bay Lightning and joining the Nashville Predators in offseason free agency in 2024. Despite Stamkos looking more like vintage Stamkos this season, he remains the subject of trade rumors, although it's unclear if the Predators are even interested in moving him.

First let's try to predict how many more goals Stamkos can pile up this current season, which has 36 games remaining for the Predators.

Let's just say conservatively speaking that Stamkos doesn't get traded and stays in Nashville and plays out these 36 games remaining in the regular season. Even if he cools off somewhat, he should have no problem passing the next player on the list, which is Dino Ciccarelli at 608 goals. That's only seven more goals needed for Stamkos. Quite frankly he could do that before the Olympic break, which is 11 games away.

After eventually passing Ciccarelli, Stamkos will have just three more goals left to pass Bobby Hull for 19th all-time. So realistically speaking, Stamkos should still have two more player to pass up before the season ends.

Now we can start looking ahead to next season and assuming Stamkos comes back for another year with Nashville. For the sake of this article, I'm going to maintain that Stamkos keeps up his goal pace from the first 46 games and doesn't miss any games due to injury. If that ends up being the case, which is totally plausible, then Stamkos should score between 15 and 16 more goals this season.

If this happens, then Stamkos will finish with 35 goals on the season and put his career total at 617. That would mean entering next season Stamkos would be eight goals behind Jarome Iginla and Joe Sakic for 17th all-time.

Even if Stamkos' goal efficiency begins to decline next season, he should be able to easily pass Iginla and Sakic eventually in 2026 or early 2027. This is when the milestones begin to be more spread out.

Assuming Stamkos' goal pace drops a bit next season, I'll say he scores 25 goals. That would put him at 642 goals by the end of 2026-27 and narrowly passing up David Andreychuk's 640 career goals and 16th all-time.

Now we're entering what would be Stamkos' last season under contract with the Predators, with the enormous assumption he even sticks around in Nashville that long. For the sake of this, we're going to say he's still here, although I realize that's very debatable.

So Stamkos under this realistic scenario is entering the 2027-28 season with 642 career goals and 16th all-time. He's almost certainly not going to catch Sidney Crosby who currently has 47 more goals than Stamkos.

Next up in this scenario among inactive players would be Brendan Shanahan with 656 career goals. Stamkos would next 15 goals in his final season under contract with Nashville to reach the top-15. By this time it's very likely Stamkos is traded by then and who knows where he lands and what is role will even be, so it's obviously really hard to predict.

I think Stamkos has two quality seasons left, after this current one, of climbing up the goals list before he probably hangs up the skates and decides to pursuit other things and spend more time with his family. He has already achieved so much in this sport, and I dont' see him chasing individual accolades on the all-time goals list.

So my realistic prediction is that Stamkos' ceiling on the all-time goals list is eventually passing Shanahan and retiring in the top-15. Just for fun, I'm going to predict he retires with 658 career goals, which would put him 10 goals of the next player on the list at 13th, Luc Robitaille.

One more interesting thought if this difficult prediction comes true, or at least close is where he ends up on the Nashville Predators goals list.

Stamkos is already up to 32nd on the Nashville Predators goals list with just 47. If you add the 56 more goals Stamkos scores from this prediction, and he actually does end his playing days here in Smashville, then he'll wrap up his Predators career with 103 goals. That would put him past some memorable players like Matt Duchene, Steven Sullivan, J.P. Dumont and Colton Sissons, but shy of the team's top-10.

And it's also worth noting that no one is ever catching Forsberg's franchise lead of 334 goals, which he'll continue to add onto for years to come. Even if he never scores another goal in a Predators uniform, no one active is even close to catching him.

Let's enjoy Stammmer's greatness why we still have him here in Smashville

The only caveat to my prediction is if Stamkos' body holds up well and he's still able to be a goal scorer and power play specialist as he approaches age 40. He's about to turn 36 in early February of this year.

If Stamkos decides to play until he's 40 on a one-year deal to win a Stanley Cup somewhere at that time, then he could pass Robitaille one day. That's kind of my absolute long-shot ceiling for him, and I certainly can't imagine he ever climbs higher and catches Teemu Selänne at 684 goals.

Either way, we should all as Predators fans enjoy the ride of watching Stamkos climb the list in our sweater. Who knows, a trade might happen in the coming weeks and we'll have to watch him climb it in another team's sweater. That's why for now I'm going to enjoy every moment of it.

Keep climbing that list, Stammer.