Coming to an agreement on Luke Evangelista's next contract with the Nashville Predators is predicated on how much faith GM Barry Trotz has in the young winger's chances of becoming difference-maker in the top-six of the lineup.
Evangelista's qualifying offer from the Predators expired on July 15, which means a new offer will have to be presented by the team. His negotiating rights still belong to the Predators unless another team swoops in with an offer sheet, which is a rare occurrence.
The rules for restricted free agents can get kind of complicated even for the diehard NHL fans, but basically speaking the Predators hold the power at the negotiating table until December 1 when the RFA status expired. So in that regard, there is no panic to rush into a deal that doesn't make sense for the organization.
What kind of contract does Evangelista deserve from Nashville Predators?
As for Evangelista's camp, they also don't have to rush into a deal that doesn't make sense for their client. Both sides are choosing to draw this out because as we sit here in mid-July, there is no reason to be desperate to get something signed on the dotted line.
There is no doubt that Evangelista is vital to the team's future of becoming younger and faster to shed that reputation of being the retirement home for former NHL superstars. This organization desperately needs a dynamic, homegrown offensive forward to pan out.
I would argue that the last homegrown forward to reach top-six value and stick around for an extended amount of time was Viktor Arvidsson, drafted in the fourth round of 2014 and went on to score 127 goals in 385 games with Nashville.
I guess you can argue Tommy Novak briefly showed some good things, but he didn't stick around long enough. Neither did Kevin Fiala, Eeli Tolvanen or Philip Tomasino. So bluntly speaking, the Predators can't afford to add Evangelista to this list.
This is why I'm inclined to believe both sides will come to an agreement on a new contract sometime before August is over. Training camps don't even start until sometime in late September, so the entire month of August is when both sides will start feeling more pressure to get something agreed upon.
Now if this were to stretch into September with training camp looming, then I'll start to worry about if Trotz is about to fumble away another young and talented player. After all, this franchise's track record is abysmal in managing young talent.
What could be the hold up? It's already been said by Trotz himself that it's about the length of the next contract. Agents understandably won't longer contracts for their players to provide more long-term stability. Pretty simple when you think about it that way.
#Preds GM Trotz: Luke Evangelista is part of our future. It's just agents, GM, trying to get a grasp on where the cap is going -- trying to find a term that fits. I would like to go longer. Agents a little reluctant to go longer because they don't know where cap will wind up.
— John Glennon (@glennonsports) July 1, 2025
Teams, on the other hand, want to protect their long-term interests by not tying themselves to a player for too long. This is especially the case when you're dealing with a young player like Evangelista who still has a lot to prove on the NHL level. That's even more apparent when considering this organization projects Evangelista to be a top-six difference-maker for years to come.
If the term of the contract is all that's hold this thing up, the two sides will eventually come to an agreement. I feel comfortable with anything three years or less. Three years is fair for both sides, although I'm sure Evangelista's camp would like more than three years.
Novak is a comparable contract when trying to project what Evangelista might get from the Predators. Novak got three years for a $3.5 million AAV in March of 2024. He has since been traded, but I can see Evangelista getting that same length of three years.
However, I also think Evangelista should command a bit more than $3.5 million AAV, and the Predators should be prepared to go more in the $4 million range with a rising salary cap and your expectations that this guy is going to be on your second line in 2025-26.
Evangelista's role with the Predators in 2025-26 should be a stark contract to his first 3 seasons
The top-six for the Predators looks set as far as which players will be up there, but who will be at each center spot is more up for debate. However, Evangelista's role seems pretty clear to me; on the second line with preferably Fedor Svechkov getting his opportunity to run the center spot, and veteran mentor Steven Stamkos on the other wing.
Of course there is Michael Bunting in the mix, who also plays the wing. There's also the possibility that Stamkos takes the center role alongside Ryan O'Reilly as the other center. Either way you slice it, Evangelista seems to be the frontrunner to be the second line right wing.
So my comfortable contract proposal for Evangelista is three years at $4.25 million AAV. If he outplays that contract by Year 2, then you quickly negotiate a contract extension and really make Evangelista happy.
Evangelista has maintained pretty much the same point efficiency in minimal average ice time through his first three seasons with the Predators. On an awful Predators team last year where no one had the offensive year they wanted, Evangelista managed 10 goals and 22 assists.
As much as Evangelista is a huge piece of the Predators, this next contract has to be a bridge contract for him to prove he's ready to take that next massive step to top-six status. He has shown glimpses in all three years of his NHL experience, and that's why I'm willing to go north of $4 million AAV and three years. Plenty of time for him to show off and prove to Trotz that he deserves a really big offer by 2027.